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#player1 Ken_Rubin Ken Rubin
#player2 jackson jackson
>Ken_Rubin: EELNOTY 8G YO +10 10
>jackson: EMOPRTV I6 VOMER +20 20
#note oh shit. I couldn't figure out why VOMER kept simming so badly against good ranges, but now I realize it's because VOMERS is valid! I totally was gonna challenge VOMERS if he played it. Jeeeeez
this makes so much more sense now, I simmed this with Ken and was kinda confused about how badly VOMER was simming, but now it makes sense. VOMER is obviously bad. POM below YO looks good!
>Ken_Rubin: EELNNT J9 LENTEN +16 26
>jackson: JMNPRTU K7 JUMP +25 45
#note not doing RUMPOT, didn't like how risky it made the board cause of the unblockable S hook is creates
>Ken_Rubin: EFISSTX L10 SEX +26 52
>jackson: EILNRTW G1 WINTERL. +66 111
>Ken_Rubin: EFFHIST 1G .HIFF +51 103
#note WHIFFETS is huge!
>jackson: AADEEKO F2 KAE +37 148
#note KOA gives back more than KAE, but KOA also raises my average (more bingoes). KOA looks like it's a bit better overall
>Ken_Rubin: ?EEGSTU E4 GUESTEd +68 171
>jackson: AADEIOT 13H ID.ATE +29 177
#note kinda forced, (J)IAO gives back a lot as well and scores nothing. they sim very close together.
>Ken_Rubin: ACRS L1 SCAR +33 204
>jackson: AADIIOQ N10 QAID +43 220
#note QAT vs. QAID - QAID is very aggressive and makes this more of a scoring fest. Part of the reason I didn't like QAT as much is because he likely has an S after SCAR, and QAT makes the 14 lane hard to block (also leaving IDEATES). QAID seems to be a bit worse off immediately in terms of average scores, but I think longterm it's better once H12 plays happen killing S hooks.
Quack totally disagrees.........
>Ken_Rubin: ERV H12 V.ER +33 237
>jackson: AAEILOY 2J AE.IA +30 250
#note gotta set up doze Ls
>Ken_Rubin: AZ 1N ZA +44 281
>jackson: ACDLLOY 5J ODYL +26 276
>Ken_Rubin: ?OORSTU 14A OUTScOR. +68 349
>jackson: ABBCLNR A12 BL.B +33 309
#note tough decision! I need to bingo here, so that's of high priority. BLOB doesn't do as much for the board as NAB(O)B or BRAC(T), but grooms my rack well. Q favours it in terms of bingo percentage over the next two turns. I'm still in a pretty rough position here - leaving 9 in the bag means 4 tile plays on the O column will leave 5 in the bag. I'm probably gonna have to bingo and hope for two outplays, unless I can score on the 8 row while leaving one in the bag. Those 4 tile plays kinda suck cause they can be totally blocked by Ken, so really I'm gonna have to counter his O column plays with a bingo and then hope to draw an out.
basically I'm in a terrible position here
>Ken_Rubin: DEIOTUW C8 WIDEOU. +24 373
#note it seems DOWIE is the way to go, I think he can outrun all my bingoes
>jackson: ACIINPR 6C IC. +5 314
#note it seems PI/ZAP wins the most. This position is mostly about iterating through and seeing what options you can draw.
after PI, I can draw CHAGRIN and CAROTIN on the O column, OCARINA and CORTINA on the B column. This is 8/90 to hit the O column and 8/90 to hit the B column, total of 12/90 to hit either, and 4/90 to hit both.
the worst play he can have on the O column is HONGI, which allows me to win by 1 if I hit ocarina or cortina! this means I always win when I draw ACINORT. If I draw AACINOR, I'll have to hope a T is in the bag to threaten an O column play in order for him to block the wrong spot. Same story with CHAGRIN, but there are no tiles that threaten a B column bingo. this means PI wins 4/90 + 4/90*1/8, or 5% of the time. this is with perfect play - he could definitely make a mistake when looking at the pool of 8 tiles.
IC(E) lets me draw HAIRPIN and ATROPIN on the O column 6/90 of the time, and PIRANHA, PARGING, HARPING, PAIRING, PIGNORA, and PARTING on the B column (close to atropin but not quite!). the problem here is that there aren't any bingoes I'm drawing in both spots, so I have to rely on the pool to threaten bingoes in both spots. If I draw ATROPIN, I threaten B column bingoes half the time, if a G or N is in the bag. Problem is that he will always have HONGI if the G or N is in the bag, which wins always.
If I draw HAIRPIN, I will win if the G is in the bag, as he will block HARPING and let me bingo out with HAIRPIN. If the A is in the bag (threatening PIRANHA), he will block piranha half the time and hairpin half the time. ICE wins 5/16 of the time when I draw HAIRPIN.
if I draw PIRANHA, I will win half the time when the I is in the bag (same deal as HAIRPIN). I lose when the O is in the bag, despite threatening APHONIA, because he plays b1 TONGING. ICE wins 1/16 of the time when I draw PIRANHA.
If I draw PAIRING, I win if H is in the bag. I threaten INGRAIN on column O if the N is in the bag, but he can win with 3J TH(A)NG for 50! ICE wins 1/8 of the time when I draw PAIRING.
All the other bingoes I can hit after ICE either get outrun by stuff like HONGI or don't threaten bingoes in both spots, so Ken can block the right spot and win. ICE wins 5/16 * 2/90 + 1/16 * 2/90 + 2/16 * 4/90, which is exactly 1/72.
contrasted with PI, which seems to win a minimum of 1/20, this looks a lot worse. there might be some other play I'm missing that makes the position harder and ends up winning more of the time.
it's worth noting what my thought process was this turn. I spent most of the time going through B10 IN, and IC(E) to see what I could actually hit. I didn't do nearly as much analysis as I did above; that is more for interest and to see how my intuition compared. The key in this position is not only to see what I can hit, but how often that actually wins. It's hard to do a full exhaustive analysis during the game, but I think I could see that playing 3N PI wins with the OT draw. The general idea here is to a) keep two lanes open so he can't block everything, and b) score enough so that my one bingo will win.
IC(E) does A but not B, and my thinking was that I will need to draw HAIRPIN or ATROPIN to win cause he's more likely to block the B column. I didn't get far enough to actually look at his possible racks if I draw those to things, and I hope to get there one day.
>Ken_Rubin: AGINOOT B4 TON +13 386
>jackson: AGINNPR O8 PAIN +31 345
>Ken_Rubin: AGHIO A1 OHIA +27 413
>jackson: GNR 3K R.NG +33 378
>jackson: (G) +4 382
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