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#player1 Bryn_Bowen Bryn Bowen
#player2 Jackson Jackson
>Bryn_Bowen: EIIINOS -IIO +0 0
#note actual rack - he showed me his first five tiles of EIIIN
>Jackson: HORRRTU H7 TURR +8 8
#note I didn't think of THRU! H on the star is really cool because THRU only takes an M, so quite a few 7s won't play.
Given his range of EIN + decent consonant (I think DLRST are a lot more likely than CMP type tiles, I think he might throw back more in that case), exchanging seems fine as well. Exchanging lowers his bingo % by a lot and raises mine in response (keeping ORT maximizes).
Given a range of DEIN, Quackle still prefers ROUTH. Exchanging sims second best. I think it's easy to overreact to exchanges, and this is an exchange 3 and I know his range isn't likely monsterous (EILN or EINT aren't crazy). Quackle hates TURR - doesn't even lower his bingo % by that much, though it lowers his score by about 10 points over ROUTH and keeps a better leave. It seems that my position after ROUTH + his bingo is better after ROUTH than after TURR (my average score is about 37 after ROUTH and 37 after TURR)
>Bryn_Bowen: EGINSZ 10G G.IZ +34 34
>Jackson: ?DEHJOR 11F JO +12 20
#note This is a classic case of how aggressive to be with the blank. This JO takes my bingo% from 57 to 81, but also takes his bingo% from 5 to 24. My average goes up by about 15 and his by about 10. This is with an EN inference, which is a touch weaker than he actually has (he is possibly keeping the fourth tile from his initial leave, maybe a T or an R or a D or L or S).
That being said, Q still prefers the other JO, probably because my average leave next turn is much stronger, presumably because when I don't bingo, I am keeping the blank. This means that the difference in value for me in bingoing and not bingoing is gonna be on average smaller than the difference for his value in him bingoing vs. not bingoing.
My average leave value after my next play is 7.6 if I play I6 JO and 2.9 if I play 11F JO. This is part of the reason why the blank does not demand such aggression, even if you get a bigger up in bingo% from it.
An issue with this analysis is that on a post-I6-JO board, quackle is likely overvaluing leaves that contain the blank: there will be no playable bingo on the board if I'm keeping the blank, and so its value is probably less than the ~26 that Q is giving it.
All this said, I6 JO is the type of play I usually like to make with a blank in hand. If my leave was DEHRS or some bingoey blankless leave, I would be more likely to make the play I made. Quackle likes JO(T), as a sort of in between play - raises my bingo % quite a bit but doesn't raise his by as much as 11F JO does.
>Bryn_Bowen: ADEINPS I2 PANDIES +67 101
>Jackson: ?DEFHRT 3H F.THEReD +78 98
#note wow I saw the word FRoTHED but somehow did not see it plays at 12D for 96.
>Bryn_Bowen: AEX 4K AXE +45 146
>Jackson: CEIOOPW 5F WOO.IE +32 130
#note Thought about DOW as well to keep a more sure scoring leave (and an O for 12 row plays) but WOODIE opens the left side of the board nicely, which I kind of like with my slight deficit. Q thinks this is quite a big valuation hit, and that DOW is almost 5 points better.
>Bryn_Bowen: CEEINNT O1 IN.ECENT +158 304
>Jackson: BCEPTUV -BCPUV +0 130
#note missed CUVET(TE), which I might have played had I seen it. I really need to bingo a few times to win this game, and all the plays I saw just hurt that plan so much, only to gain 12-16 points right now. B(RE)VET's leave is too bad and just rarely bingoes. ET is usually not as good as CET, but on this board, the C is an impediment cause it doesn't go anywhere to start bingoes
>Bryn_Bowen: AKMRTUY 12F ODDYSEy +90 394
>Bryn_Bowen: AKMRTUY -- -90 304
>Jackson: AAEEIIT 11J AI +15 145
>Bryn_Bowen: ?DDEOSY N6 YO +28 332
>Jackson: AEEEGIT 6D AGEE +16 161
#note with his DDES? leave, I'm hoping he hits a 4a bingo and gives me a triple triple, which would only put me like 2 bingoes behind
>Bryn_Bowen: ?DDERRS C6 RuDDERS +66 398
>Jackson: EEILPTV 12A VE.T +22 183
>Bryn_Bowen: BU 8A BU. +18 416
#note cat and mouse
>Jackson: EEGIILP D1 EPIGE. +20 203
#note phony, but he can't really challenge
>Bryn_Bowen: INV 1A VIN. +21 437
>Jackson: ABCILOY L8 BIALY +29 232
>Bryn_Bowen: HORS B10 HO.RS +47 484
>Jackson: ACLMOTW M7 WOT +28 260
>Bryn_Bowen: AKN 12L .ANK +16 500
>Jackson: AACLLMM N10 CA.AL +26 286
>Bryn_Bowen: FIST 15L FIST +41 541
>Jackson: ALMMOOU C1 .OMA +27 313
#note the best endgame is really cool! MA(I)L 3B as an out in three, forcing (S)UQ, then MU/HAEM, then EPIGEAN, then H1 OOF to go out.
>Bryn_Bowen: LNQU 4A QU.. +24 565
>Jackson: LMOU 14B .OLUM +13 326
#note It's amazing that bad decisions on each of my first four moves correctly cost me the game.
>Jackson: (LN) +4 330
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