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#player1 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
#player2 Sam_McElhinney Sam McElhinney
>Dave_Koenig: AIILNNS 8H ANILINS +66 66
#note There is more than one reasonable place to play this bingo, but the argument for a placement like this one is that it cuts down the volatitily by immediately taking out one of the triple word score spaces. There is now a significantly smaller chance that there will be a triple-triple in this game, which favors the person with the early lead. Of course, with a low scoring opening bingo, there is no guarantee I will have the lead for a long time. As you will see later, the blocking nature of this play does become a significant factor, but it variably favors each of us at different times during the game.
>Sam_McElhinney: AUV 9G VAU +16 16
>Dave_Koenig: EJMOOTU N4 MOJO. +30 96
#note I rushed this play. It sims third best but is a steep 7 points behind the leader SOJU in equity. SOJU leaves a more balanced and bingo prone leave. Also, it is to my advantage that the placement of the U on column N is slightly inflexible for him in making column O comebacks, while my tiles are very good for playing in that lane. Maximizing your chances on these early plays can make a big difference in the direction of the game. I should have taken more time here.
>Sam_McElhinney: GLUY O1 UGLY +47 63
>Dave_Koenig: AERTTTU 10I TUT +8 104
>Sam_McElhinney: ?HILNRU 2H LURcHIN. +76 139
>Dave_Koenig: AEMORTW 1D MOWRA +45 149
#note The second time in this tournament that I had this same rack and played the same word. The previous time was the first turn of the first round. This play is clearly best.
>Sam_McElhinney: ABDR 2B DRAB +22 161
>Dave_Koenig: EEHIOQT 1A QI +36 185
>Sam_McElhinney: AEKNPRS 11I SPANKER +88 249
>Sam_McElhinney: EEN (challenge) +5 254
#note I should know better than to challenge this word, but 5 point challenge encourages frivolous challenges sometimes. Also, this may have been born of a bit of frustration, because he has suddenly transformed the board in a way that is highly unfavorable to me.
>Dave_Koenig: EEHIOTT N10 H.TTIE +34 219
>Dave_Koenig: AELOORT (challenge) +5 224
#note Not an easy move to make, but Quackle vinidicates me, giving this move the highest winning percentage--a still depressingly low 14.26%--despite the fact that ETHE 3G has a slightly higher raw equity. (2 ply sim, 1300 iterations, sim results are without the +5 challenge bonus) The problem I have is that the last several plays have shaped the board in a way that is not good for comebacks. One of the only bingo lanes I had going into this turn was starting with the R on the C column, and a parallel play on row 3 could easily kill that lane. ETHE looks like it is creating another lane, but that B3-E3 spot could easily score well and kill both lanes. Furthermore, I had no particularly good column O plays, and a scoring play like 10N HO leaves a dismal leave and little chance of scoring on the next play. Obviously, there is a lot of risk in creating the opening I did, which he is almost certain to take first, and my two vowel leave is nothing to write home about. However, he does have a truly random rack after bingoing on the previous turn, my play scores well, and I desperately need to start creating other fronts to distract him from closing the board completely. Furthermore, my play drew a challenge, getting back the 5 points I had gifted him on the previous turn by my desperation challenge of SPANKER.
>Sam_McElhinney: EEN O13 ENE +19 273
#note A minor victory for me that he could not do more damage after I created such a big opening.
>Dave_Koenig: AELOORT 12L OO. +16 240
#note Angling for that bingo and again desperately trying to create another lane so he can't close them all at once.
>Sam_McElhinney: A 13M A.. +20 293
#note I expected there was a good chance this would go down, but at least I made him spend a turn and only one tile closing this lane instead of hitting row 3. There was a case for TOOT on the previous turn to set up the TATE hook to try to make the lane a bit harder to close. Then again, depending on what he had, that might have just encouraged him to make a longer play in this spot, simultaneously blocking things up and scoring more.
>Dave_Koenig: ACELRRT L1 C.ART +26 266
#note A tough call. The T seems like a letter I might want to keep here, but CHAR has so many back hooks I thought I would be giving him a free hand in hooking the word and blocking up the lane himself. He still might be able to make a blocking play to close this lane now, but he is likely to score a lot less in doing so.
>Sam_McElhinney: AEX K5 AXE. +26 319
>Dave_Koenig: EEILRSV C2 .ESILVER +82 348
>Dave_Koenig: ACFOPTZ (challenge) +5 353
#note It took nerves of steel to play this, when I was not 100% sure I was remembering it correctly and I was sure of RELIVERS and REVILERS. But intuition told me I remembered it right, and that I might really need the extra points later, and that there was a good chance this one would draw the challenge for a +5. I was right.
>Sam_McElhinney: EW 8A EW. +18 337
>Dave_Koenig: ACFOPTZ 3G ZAP +37 390
#note I think I just missed PLOTZ here, which is a better play. I want to keep scoring and block bingo lines as much as possible. While it is true that the T slotted in the double-double line is dangerous and the S on row 4 is a viable bingo lane after PLOTZ, ZAP leaves lines open on rows 5 and 6 as well as the unobstructed E on column A. I do not remember for sure, but it is possible I did see PLOTZ and opted for ZAP instead. If I did so, I think that would have been bad judgement. Of course, it is much easier to see these things objectively after the fact, as opposed to when the clock is ticking down.
>Sam_McElhinney: EGO 4E GEO +15 352
#note What his last couple plays suggest to me about his rack is ominous. It is likely that he is close to a bingo. The blank and other versatile tiles are still out there, and though the board is not super friendly to bingos, I cannot take out all the lanes. Also, it is hard for me to score enough to outdistance a bingo.
>Dave_Koenig: BCFFIOT 6B C.IFF +27 417
#note This is a tough call, and I can easily believe that my choice might not be best, but I am not sure if Quackle can handle this position well either. CLIFF scores better than most other plays, but it does have the downside that it may be easier for him to start column E bingos with the F than the G he previously had to use. At the same time, I kill row 6 bingos and partially block the E on column A. I did consider A3 OFFICE, which might be a better block than CLIFF, though it obviously sacrifices a fair number of points. 5F FOB and 7E BIFF are also interesting choices. Quackle's Championship player prefers another play, which I am not going to reveal yet because it spoils some of the suspense of the game.
>Sam_McElhinney: DE L11 ..DE +10 362
#note I was surprised to pick up the blank, given the way he fished on the last few turns, but suddenly NODE had me worried. His most likely rack now is DINGOES, which plays at row 15 and also gives him WENDIGOS on column B, and I cannot possibly block both. What can I do?
>Dave_Koenig: ?BEIOTY 12C OBEsITY +82 499
#note It took me quite a while to see the NUTSY hook, which I had managed to miss the whole game up to now. Without it I would lose this game.
>Sam_McElhinney: DEGINOS 15F DINGOES +87 449
>Sam_McElhinney: (D) +4 453
#note On the CLIFF turn, Quackle Championship Player preferred BIFFO at 12E, making the other hook NUTSO. I had completely forgotten about NUTSO during the game, so there is no chance I would have come up with that play. Probably some of the value in it was in taking out bingos hooking NUTSY from him, and Quackle isn't considering the difficult of a human seeing the NUTSY spot. That being said, there is also value in playing five tiles to give the opponent fewer tiles to maneuver for a setup in the endgame. Leaving only two in the bag would have allowed him to only make one tile plays to avoid emptying the bag if he did not have an immediate bingo.
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