| Player 1 |
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#player1 Dave Dave
#player2 Moiz_Ullah_Baig Moiz Ullah Baig
>Dave: BFFILLP 8G BIFF +24 24
#note There does not seem to be a whole lot to think about with this rack, but if it were not an empty board play, there could be situations where BLIP was actually the right play, as keeping FFL could have good scoring potential. But it is not as good a choice as an opening play, as it is unlikely that I am going to have an open enough board to take advantage of them. I also was glad to play BIFF on the reasoning that Moiz might not know all the hooks it takes. I asked him after the game, and he correctly recited them all. So much for that strategy. That being said, my move does sim best.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: BILRU 9C RUBLI +14 14
>Dave: DLLNPTU D8 P.LTUN +22 46
#note The best play by a country mile and not an easy word to know and see. I was proud of this one.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: GIIIR 13D .IGIRI +9 23
>Dave: ADDKLOS 8A KLA. +32 78
#note I definitely considered both KLAP and DORKS, but I might have missed OKRAS, which scores considerably more than the others but has a worse leave. All of these plays sim close to each other, but Quackle seems to think DORKS is a hair better. I might have overestimated the value of holding the O for the BIFFO hook. There is also the fact that leaving the H15 spot open for him significantly increases his scoring potential on this board.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: EIW J6 WI.E +18 41
>Dave: DDNNOSS K5 NODS +31 109
#note There are two clearly best plays here, but choosing between them is a close call. They are 10G SNOD for 30 points and the play I made, K5 NODS for 31. There are some inference factors that Quackle is not taking into account in its simulation. It is unlikely that Moiz left a Y on his last play, as setting up WIFEY is under most circumstances here not going to be as good as just playing WIFEY. And with that less likely to be on his rack, and me already having two S's and two D's, making the play which leaves the WIFED hooking as a scoring option for myself seems like a good call. Furthermore, it is helpful for me to set up the SNODS hook when I am holding another S. Also, I am scoring one more point right now while keeping the same leave. Despite all of that, Quackle simulation does favor SNOD just slightly. I don't think that is the be all and end all in this situation, and Quackle's numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, for the reasons I mentioned above. But it probably favors SNOD just for the reason that the board is less open as a whole for him after SNOD, decreasing his scoring chances. I am fine with my choice, though it happened that I helped him out with his rack.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: ACCEILS 4E CALICES +68 109
>Dave: DEENOSY 10G DENY +44 153
#note This is an interesting moment. I may have been too point greedy. DENY scores the most and keeps the board tight with me still in the lead despite his bingo. It is natural to slightly prefer points over a more bingo prone leave on a board that is somewhat tighter after his play, especially when I do not need the bingo. It is also natural that I would be gun-shy about setting up another S hook when I just got burned by doing so on the last turn. However, what this ignores is that with him just using an S, the threat to set up an S hook is even stronger for me this time around, as he is less likely to have the last one. Quackle prefers 10H DOYEN, which sacrifices 5 points, but keeps the more balanced ES leave and sets up my S. Another factor in DOYEN's favor is that with both blanks unseen, the extra turnover is valuable. But the difference between these plays is small. Quackle has them within two points of each other.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: DEERTUX 12H EXTRUDE +94 203
>Dave: EIOOSVY E1 VOI.E +20 173
#note Ouch, I blocked TEXTURED, which would have been even worse, but suddenly I am in a very bad situation. That is because he has not only taken a 50 point lead, but also because I have no play with my S making EXTRUDES that hits the triple. With EXTRUDE also taking a D and R, there is a good chance that he may have drawn a play hooking it first, which is going to put me further behind, as I also do not have good plays blocking the spot. It is important to recognize that although the score is still close, I am actually in very serious trouble here. I believe what I did was absolutely necessary. By playing VOICE, I clean up a lot of the biggest problems with my rack in a hurry and I turn over as many tiles as I can with both blanks unseen. I also ratchet up the volatility by making another part of the board very noisy while the EXTRUDE hook is still open.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: ANT 1E .ANT +21 224
>Dave: AGHNOSY O8 YOGHS +56 229
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: ??AAAHT M7 THAnA.Ar +74 298
#note All according to plan. He was forced to make a low scoring block of the triple line, perhaps fearing I had a blank, and that allowed me to win the race to EXTRUDES with a high scoring play, retaking the lead. THANADAR is a nice word, and it is very challenging to find your best bingo with two blanks and three A's. It does so happen in this position, though, that the best bingo is a very significant improvement. ATAGHAN N2 would have scored 12 more points and kept the board much tighter.
>Dave: AEGNOPT N1 PONTAGE +80 309
#note I lucked out that Moiz's bingo gave me a spot for my previously orphaned one. This is my first bingo of the game, but despite the three that he has already hit, I am keeping pace with him.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: NQ 3D Q.N +14 312
>Dave: AEIOORR O1 ORA +25 334
#note It is necessary to take out the top right spot as it is not only the best way for me to get some points with my vowel heavy rack, but it also takes out plays like JAPE and ZAPS. Furthermore, if he does have some of those heavy tiles, my best chance of coming back may be hitting a row 6 bingo with the VOICER hook. The final S for THANADARS looms large. Championship player prefers ROPE 1L because there are four E's unseen and only one more A. This is a case where the point valuation of my play is higher, but the win percentage of ROPE is higher. The reason is that getting a bingo may be very crucial here, with him likely to have better scoring tiles than I do. Although I agree with Quackle's evaluation that ROPE may have given me a better chance, I believe I can say definitively based on what I drew next that there was no way I was going to win this game.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: DJO L11 J.DO +25 337
>Dave: AEEIORU K14 OU +4 338
#note After drawing three more vowels, I knew I might be in bad shape, but there was one last hope: that Moiz had a serious vowel shortage along with the J and the Z. However, JUDO gives me a couple of very strong inferences. He is holding the S and setting up JUDOS, and he is not short of vowels, as otherwise he would have just played JUD. With this I knew that even though the score was virtually even, I was doomed. I can't score anything decent, and he is very likely to hit me with a very big score on the next turn. My only chance seemed to be minimizing the damage he could do on row 15 and trying to give myself a shot to draw a bingo elsewhere. Quackle simulation without rack inference is just about useless here. I don't know whether what I did gives me the best chance. I am up for other suggestions. But again, when you see that he has, it will be clear that better play would not have saved me.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: EMOSTVZ 6B ZEMSTVO +104 441
>Dave: AEEEIMR M3 MEE +24 362
#note I think I was just about out of time here. RETIME is best for spread, but it is only bookkeeping at this point. I did have enough time to see that he has outs of both WERT and WERE so I will not get another play.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: ERW J1 WER. +9 450
#note We both missed that he has a much higher scoring out play of REW 11F.
>Moiz_Ullah_Baig: (AEIR) +8 458
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