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#player1 Sam Sam
#player2 Dan_Wachtell Dan Wachtell
>Sam: EEGINTV 8G VEG +14 14
#note Who out there would play VEGIE, or VENGE?
>Dan_Wachtell: IIIII -IIIII +0 0
#note Didn't see INVENT G6, which is a clever play I would have made. NEXT is 6.5 equity points back...but worse is that three exchange are better. I'm surprised that 1) Ex. NN and Ex. NNX are better, I considered the latter for a while. Is EINT 11 better than EINN?
>Sam: EINNNTX H7 N.XT +11 25
#note I didn't see INVENT G6, which looks like a great play. However, I'm surprised that my play is simming fifth behind three exchanges with Ex. NN and Ex. NNX being the better two. I was surprised that keeping the X simmed better, so I did some investigation: with EINNNTX as an opening rack, the sim suggests that keeping EINT is best, with EINTX 2.5 back and EINN 11.2 back. It looks harder for Dan to play with just VEG on the board, so that shows why Ex. NNX is clearly better. I'm still confused on if keeping the X on the exchange would be better or not. I guess there is a good chance the TLS will be open next turn with a play through the E or a DWS/TLS with a play through VG. I guess I should have just spotted INVENT...
>Dan_Wachtell: EKRSZ 11D ZERKS +48 48
>Dan_Wachtell: EKRSZ -- -48 0
>Sam: EEILNNY G6 NE.E +22 47
#note I took a while on this move, and didn't even notice it gave him ZEK F5! I even wrote it in on my board diagram on my scoresheet in pencil (I brought a pencil just for something like that, haha). This still sims second though, as there aren't really many good options. The sim does like EVE very slightly better though, keeping a worse leave but denying him of four more points by forming EN. They're pretty much the same.
>Dan_Wachtell: EKRSZ F5 ZEK +29 29
>Sam: IJLNOOY I6 JO. +21 68
#note The sim liked JOG best, but it likes LOONY F9 by 1.2 points after I plug in the partial opponent rack. ZERKS over ZEKS on Turn 2 probably implies two more consonants to me, so I think there is a good chance his leave was RS and two more consonants. Still, he's just drawn three, randomizing his rack mostly. So LOONY would look better by blocking the main bingo line and leaving only consonants for eights, which makes it tougher given he is *probably* somewhat consonant heavy. I wish I could think of all this over the board. JOG wasn't bad anyway, though.
>Dan_Wachtell: EORSU J3 EURO +17 46
#note Not including the S for 10 more.
>Sam: AILNOTY 10H .ONALITY +65 133
>Dan_Wachtell: ADEES O8 SA.EED +33 79
#note I held for a while, but just couldn't bring myself to challenge. I knew SAYID, SAYED, and SAYYID, and I saw that he had SAYED for just as many points. Plus, I just drew a blank post-bingo and wanted to keep things rolling.
>Sam: ?IILRSU 13K LURI. +12 145
#note I didn't know SILURId F9, SILURoID 13H, or fUSILIER 3D. But come on Sam, UtILISER!!! Really now...LURID is fine as non-bingos go, though LIRI F9 is probably a little better.
>Dan_Wachtell: BHOO 11I HOBO +35 114
>Sam: ?IMRSUW 5D WI. +30 175
>Dan_Wachtell: CEFY N5 FYCE +22 136
>Sam: ?MPRSTU 3E cRUMP.TS +65 240
#note I looked and looked for a bingo hitting the DWS, but couldn't find it--SPEcTRUM 3H! This is tied with a pack of other 3E and 3D plays (I saw tRUMPETS and sTUMPERS and dUMPSTER).
>Dan_Wachtell: AEEFGRS F9 SERFAGE +77 213
>Sam: AADNRVW 15E V.RANDA +33 273
#note The obvious "word" in these letters is actually good! Doesn't play though. I saw VANDA O1 for better points and leave, but am unsurprised to see Quackle corroborate my choice of VERANDA as best. It does say VANDA has better equity, though, if not win%
>Dan_Wachtell: DEGOO 12C GOO.ED +26 239
>Sam: IIIOSTW 13C OW +21 294
#note Glad to see Quackle back me up for playing through this rack. Not so glad to see it nont love my play. Its favorite is WIST L1, which I saw, closely followed by WIT K6. I realize that WIST really isn't that dangerous. What's the best he's going to get (other than a freak EAsTWARD or something), WHAM for 36? The average there will be 21-27, no more than a normal play for sure. Take the improved leave, get rid of an I, and work toward a better rack. Don't fear that TWS!
>Dan_Wachtell: AHNU H1 HU.AN +33 272
#note And in addition, this TWS was already open!
>Sam: DIIIIST -III +0 294
#note This shows exactly why WIST was better. And I remember being low on time (I ended with under a minute for sure), but this play is horrendous! A) The V/C ratio is 6-11 B) There is a blank out!!! Trade 6, try and draw the blank! Christ, why do I even track?
>Dan_Wachtell: AEILN O1 ALINE +23 295
>Sam: DIIQSTT L1 QI. +22 316
#note Champ. Player's favorite (for whatever that means) is TIT K6, with my play second. A two-ply sim seems to like TWIT D4 best, with my play fourth or fifth behind TIT and DIT B13. A many-ply sim likes TIT again, with my play third behind DITA 1L. Do I know what that all means? Not really. I do know that it wasn't urgent at all to rid myself of the Q here. TWIT seems like a cool play, but if he has the blank he'll be able to play to the triple, not that that's a huge concern but it stops my higher-scoring QI/QAID. I just wanted to scory as many points as I could now, but with all those consonants unseen I guess I should have rid myself of more. TIT blocks the main bingo lain, which is a big plus, and leaves QIS and QI M9 for next turn, or QIS 14A. I guess TIT looks good, but I don't hate my QIS. I am the pits at these close pre-endgames. Any thoughts?
>Dan_Wachtell: IT M1 IT +15 310
>Sam: BDIPSTT 6I ..B +12 328
#note And if you thought I couldn't make up my mind about that last play...After the last round of NYC, I decided that when in serious doubt, leave one in the bag. A many-ply sim likes BID B13 with a win% of 59.78%, with my JOB having a win% of...20.77%. Champ. Player likes BIT N12, with GOB C12 second and BID B13 not even registering. It has my JOB 6I in fifth. I had and have no idea of what to play. JOB was my "in doubt, save time, it's not *that* bad" play. Advice much needed! I see that BID sets up the TWS, but he'll probably have MA or MI there. IMO, this is a hard play. So many crappy options!
>Dan_Wachtell: ?AACILR 5J .AI +14 324
#note This is Dan's real rack. We both saw the possibility of dIARCHAL*. Champ. Player, which I think can be trusted with 1-in-the-bag sometimes, says this wins 25% but RIAL 14A wins 100%
>Sam: DIMPSTT N12 D.PT +17 345
#note Only one play wins here, the clever SMUT G1. I didn't see an out for Dan, and I was down to about a minute with him at 2 or 3 minutes. I figured I'd force him to find an out through that H for the win. Can you find the out?
>Dan_Wachtell: ?ACILR D11 C..L +9 333
#note The out for Dan was CARLIsH 1B. He obviously didn't see my...
>Sam: IMST 1D SMIT. +11 356
>Sam: (AIR?) +6 362
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