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#player1 Chris_Grubb Chris Grubb
#player2 Noah_Walton Noah Walton
>Chris_Grubb: EGGL 8F GLEG +12 12
>Noah_Walton: AHILTUY F6 HU. +15 15
#note Interesting play. I also considered GUY, which seems a little harder to score off than HUG is. The nice thing about HUG is that it sets up my T. However, he can definitely hook it as well. If he hooks GUY, he has to use an S, which isn't as nice as using a T. There are other options here too, like UGH, UGLY, YUGA and AHI.
>Chris_Grubb: ADEKNPS J8 SPANKED +77 89
>Chris_Grubb: ADEKNPS -- -77 12
>Noah_Walton: AIILTTY H6 TI. +3 18
#note So, should I have left SPANKED on? If I do, I have LATINITY, which Quackle says wins about 38% of the time (I figured ~600 iterations got a close enough estimate to work. If I challenge, I need to block KNEEPADS (It's possible he misses, and I suppose that should be factored in, but it seemed unlikely that he would. He did in fact see it.) My play, TI(E) sims better than LATINITY when I specify his rack (~45% win chance), so I think I'm happy I challenged. However, ATILT is a better play that I didn't notice. I did notice HIT, but I was worried about SKIPLANED* being good! That's probably irrational, because he doesn't necessarily find it, and there's a real chance it's phony, from my perspective, there (I was fairly sure, I think, that it would be new if it were good). HIT and ATILT beat this by more than 10 equity on a sim. Pretty big mistake.
>Chris_Grubb: ADEKNPS 9D KNEAD +27 39
>Noah_Walton: AIIJLTY 6H .AJ +26 44
>Chris_Grubb: FO 7J OF +14 53
>Noah_Walton: EIILLTY K7 .ILLY +22 66
#note I also considered KILTY and LIKELY. I didn't see FITLY, which might be better. This keeps the (OF)T hook, but EIL is already statically better than EIT, and it probably only gets stronger with an open K (and maybe Y? though EITY seems pretty good for 8s as well). LIKELY seemed reasonable, but I know he has PS, and an additional T or ? seem like pretty reasonable inferences. So it seemed like this would weaken his bingo chances a lot, even though the T is a good tile for ending words in. But even inferring that, LIKELY wins a sim handily! It scores six more now and averages more on my next turn. While FITLY and FILLY do cut his score by about 6 points, and his bingo percentage by about 9 points, it's just not nearly good enough. I really wasn't thinking about percentages clearly here. Often, he doesn't draw a bingo at all. The situations where FILLY is good are those where I block his bingo or where LIKELY creates a new spot for it. In most other situations, LIKELY is better (there's a little percentage for stuff like AZINE as well, I suppose).
>Chris_Grubb: IIPRSST L2 SPIRITS +79 132
>Noah_Walton: AEILQTT 2J QI. +32 98
>Chris_Grubb: DEIPUV E1 UPDIVE +29 161
>Noah_Walton: AELRTTW 2B WRA.T +24 122
#note Hm, not sure about this play.
>Chris_Grubb: CEHOSY D6 HOC.EYS +53 214
>Noah_Walton: ELNOOTU 10I TO.UOL +10 132
#note Huge gamble! I thought it was possible Chris would miss TOLUOLE -- the more possible, the better this is. Is it a terrible play? Is it best? If not, what's better? LOO?
>Chris_Grubb: BDEEMRT N5 TREMB.ED +65 279
>Noah_Walton: AEENNRW O11 NEWER +33 165
#note Decided on this instead of REWAN / RENEW because it seemed to open stronger lanes. I could be wrong about that.
>Chris_Grubb: ACEERST O6 ETA +25 304
#note Chris said he had CREATES on his rack here.
>Noah_Walton: AANNNOZ 1A ZOA +43 208
>Chris_Grubb: ?CEORSX 14H EXORCiS. +86 390
>Noah_Walton: AAGNNNR 15F NAN +15 223
#note Thought about play this at 13H, but it's just too likely he has one of BEE?. Also thought about NANS 12A, but I don't think that makes sense. This is probably fine?
>Chris_Grubb: DOU 13G UDO +20 410
>Noah_Walton: ?AGIMNR 4A IMAG.NeR +74 297
>Chris_Grubb: ABEINOV C10 ABOVE +31 441
#note Best is NEVI 3G.
>Noah_Walton: AEFI M3 EF +23 320
#note I had a somewhat bad attitude this game and made a couple bad thinking errors on TIE and FILLY. WRAPT is potentially interesting, and I'm definitely curious about TOLUOL! HUG was also interesting, but to a lesser extent, since it probably doesn't matter too much. (Unless there's some important factor I'm missing there. I think I got hooked on Ys ever since Nigel R kept ILTY on opening rack exchange.)
>Chris_Grubb: IN 3E .IN +10 451
>Chris_Grubb: (AI) +4 455
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