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#player1 Deen_Hergott Deen Hergott
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Deen_Hergott: ADEENTT H4 DENTATE +70 70
#note my opponents opened with a bingo every game
>Joshua_Sokol: CEPTUWY 10F WE.PY +29 29
#note Scores the most, leads to a bingo fairly often (30% or so), and keeps the board alive with hooks; E(DENTATE) and S(WEEPY)
>Deen_Hergott: CFOR 9D CROF. +28 98
>Joshua_Sokol: COPRTUV 5E COV.RUP +56 85
>Deen_Hergott: BEIL 11D BILE +24 122
>Joshua_Sokol: ?FJKNST L1 JuNKS +61 146
#note I often get annoyed when I have to open up an easy scoring spot like this one, as I'm granting my opponent such an easy decision of what to do so much of the time.
J(U)NK for 17 was worth considering, but I did some estimative equity calculations and JuNKS seemed slightly worse (2 points). So I still played it. "Why?", might you ask. I don't know. I'm playing my worst nightmare here. Deen has been totally wrecking me for the past 3 years because he's an International Chess Master and has incredibly sharp strategy. All the chess analysis videos in the world can't help me against that.
I crossed out my calculation that J(U)NK was worth 55 and JUNKS was worth 53. Quackle's 4-ply simulation values J(U)NK at 58.3 and JuNKS at 55.9. Coincidence? Probably just intuition.
>Deen_Hergott: INO 1L .OIN +33 155
>Joshua_Sokol: EFIIMOT 12A MOTIF +39 185
#note I really started sinking here. For some reason I kept thinking that FOMITE is phony. I talked myself in and out of FOMITE for around 3 minutes until I finally saw MOTIF, which has better equity, and played it. FOMITE sims a bit worse but I think it's a better play. He clearly can't score all that well considering his last play, and his rack might be less suited to do much after FOMITE, MOTIF could very well give him a dump. And guess what folks, my intuition telling me to play FOMITE if it was a word was definitely who I should have listened to.
>Deen_Hergott: OORV A8 VROO. +30 185
#note Vroom! Deen is sailing away with this easy dump. FOMITE probably makes things a lot harder or at least forces him into the corner I just played in.
>Joshua_Sokol: EEHIISU 7G E.UI +6 191
#note I continue to lose my grasp on this game by tunnelling on E(T)UI vs 6J HI for 30. He probably didn't have an A, so that must be the most likely problematic draw for me, so I think playing for 30 doesn't make sense here. However, I completely missed HEI(N)IE but noticed the play after I made mine. Possibly because I wanted to hook E(DENTATE) and so was blind to anything interfering with that. HEI(N)IE is hugely better than E(T)UI, even though E(T)UI balances very nicely and sets up HI(N) at 6F.
>Deen_Hergott: BENOR 2J BO.RNE +34 219
#note HEI(N)IE also blocks this.
>Joshua_Sokol: AEHIMST 6F HI. +33 224
#note There is no place for ATHEISM in this microcosm. 3I HAI(N)T is also an option here
>Deen_Hergott: AAL 1H ALA +13 232
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEIMST 3B STEAMIE +79 303
#note A1 plays are not that likely after ALA, I should probably take the points at 2B.
>Deen_Hergott: EX B9 EX +52 284
>Joshua_Sokol: DDGGIRT 13B DIG +23 326
>Deen_Hergott: ELZ 14A LEZ +44 328
>Joshua_Sokol: DGIRSTU 8J TURGID +29 355
#note a great draw. I failed to consider 2A GUID now that the scores were even, since it keeps a really good leave. There are some problematic draws that may occur after TURGID, however Deen's rack is likely worse than average at this point, so TURGID would seem to be the right idea just so that I could potentially draw the last blank or some good stuff. I almost played this for 4 less at 12G, however that would run into a lot of problems if Deen had the Q.
>Deen_Hergott: AA 15A AA +17 345
>Joshua_Sokol: ?ELNQSY G2 Q. +11 366
#note Great, I'm in a dominant position here. I can either go ahead 60 points with D1 Qu(E)Y, which wins often enough if Deen bingos immediately, but loses when he successfully fishes and I can't hit anything myself, or block his bingo. I figured it was possible to prevent fishing from working by playing from J11, however Deen could make a fishing play that makes it impossible to block everything. Given those factors, I figured fishing the Q was a better idea and asking Deen if he can outpower my extremely strong rack. I hit a bingo in two spots with everything except AAAW. His play indicates he might have more A's than usual, but let's say it's an 11/15 unless he bingos blocking both spots, which could maybe happen 10% of the time he does bingo. Otherwise he could counter-fish and I might be on the losing end of things if I bingo. That's the biggest threat either way. If Deen fishes after Qu(E)Y, at least, I can still outscore his bingo. I can do the same after Q(I), but it seems more difficult if he makes a play that scores 10-20.
So I'm actually less worried if he bingos now in either case.
Q(I) sims a bit better than Qu(E)Y, and after the game, Qu(E)Y proved victorious far less often than Q(I) given what Deen actually had.
>Deen_Hergott: AAINRST 12G TSARINA +73 418
#note (I)NTARSIA would be better against my actual rack, but in general TSARINA is definitely best here. Still, he loses 7/8 times given what I had.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?ELNSWY B1 Wi.ELY +38 404
#note And of course I drew the only tile that didn't work. This was a heartbreaking moment. -8 to I9 S(P)L(A)Y and also -5 to N10 WiSELY which I saw but didn't like because it gave him HO(Y)A
>Deen_Hergott: ADEGHOU 4A H.AD +32 450
#note -5 to 11J AHED
>Joshua_Sokol: NS K7 S.N +8 412
>Joshua_Sokol: (EGOU) +10 422
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