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#player1 Joe_Edley Joe Edley
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Joe_Edley: ABCORY 8G CARBOY +34 34
>Jim_Burlant: EEEELTU -EEEU +0 0
#note I felt the only letter he could have played that would have made this worth playing through was an M for EMEUTE. A sim confirms that the EU leave with EYELET is *so* bad that it is not worth the 18 scoreboard points to play through, at least not on my open. This is best.
>Joe_Edley: FOO 7L OOF +12 46
>Jim_Burlant: AEEJLTX - +0 0
#note In a tournament full of brain farts, moments of sheer idiocy and mind numbing incompetence on my end, my decision to challenge this ranks at the very top of the list. Just think for a second - this is a two-time national champion you're playing. He would not try to pwn you with a three-letter word!!!! Not to mention that he's just given me a place to play JET for 32. Best is clearly JET 6J for 32. That wins 39%. Being a moron and scoring 0 for a second straight turn for no good reason wins 24.
>Joe_Edley: DU J6 DU. +10 56
>Jim_Burlant: AEEJLTX 8N EX +32 32
#note Fortunately for me he can't really capitalize. I opted for 32 points with EX; perhaps JET 6M may be slightly better? Regardless, this worked out better for me than it had any right to.
>Joe_Edley: DEELNOS G6 EN.LOSED +65 121
>Jim_Burlant: AEIJLOT F10 JOTA +59 91
#note Or JIAO. I initially considered JO to keep more of the rack tgether, but I felt it would be way too easy for him to back hook for 10 extra points. Once I saw that, it became academic and the correct thing to do was play for 59, not 52. The only improvement to this would be JIAO, and you'll see why this is a mistake in a couple of more turns:
>Joe_Edley: EGRW F3 GREW +29 150
>Jim_Burlant: AEGIILL 12B LIGA.. +14 105
#note Gotta know it to play it: GILLIE scores 30 at H1. If you don't know that one (the 7, GILLIES, is just past the probability range I've studied), I figured it would be best to open up with LIGATE. Lack of word knowledge does me in on this turn, but this does work out.
>Joe_Edley: ENPRRU C8 PRUN.ER +20 170
>Jim_Burlant: AEEILOT 4D AE.OLITE +68 173
#note Only bingo. Back in the game at 40% to win.
>Joe_Edley: DEZ H13 ZED +52 222
#note What's he doing here if I play JIAO a couple of turns back?
>Jim_Burlant: CEHPRVW 3I PERCH +41 214
#note Disappointed in myself that I didn't see WHELP, but the surprise is that a sim says this is every bit as good as WHELP despite the VW leave. And turning the extra tile with the blanks unseen can only help my cause.
>Joe_Edley: ADEFM I10 FAMED +30 252
>Jim_Burlant: ILNSSVW J11 WIS +30 244
#note Reasonable play, but not quite best - The duck says I should play the second S for 9 more. Makes sense, though I never looked for it, since I was looking to make AEROLITES plays. Keeping the S definitely helped in the short term, as you'll see in a moment:
>Joe_Edley: EIK 8A KE.I +33 285
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNSV B1 VASELIN. +76 320
#note Only bingo.I'm actually in the driver's seat now - 63% to win.
>Joe_Edley: GOV 5K VOG +26 311
>Jim_Burlant: IMNNTTY 1A I.Y +27 347
#note I knew Quackle would hate this play and want me to play MINTY for 20. If he's got something like XANTHeIn with the blank, that's life. But I can't let row 1 sit open given the two unseen blanks. First task is staying in the game.
>Joe_Edley: H 14H ..H +33 344
#note Which explains why Quackle wanted me to play WISS a few turns ago.
>Jim_Burlant: IMNNQTT 7D QI +22 369
#note An *awful* draw...forcing a tough position and an even more questionable decision. Without an A for QUA, I felt MILT B10 would screw me because he'd force me to play the Q for 11 or 12 points on the next turn. I crossed my fingers and hoped that the 22 points would give me just enough margin to be able to survive. I was also hoping that with AAAIIOUU unseen a two-tile pick could land the vowels that would bail me out. Quackle says B10 MILT was the play. If I had this to do again, maybe exchang NNQT and keep MIT for the next turn and force this game to come down to whoever has to waste a turn dealing with the Q? I dunno what's right, but QI sure was not.
>Joe_Edley: ATU K8 .UTA +20 364
>Jim_Burlant: ?AMNNTT 14B T.AMs +23 392
#note Was a little low on time. I saw the unseen S and thought JOTA back hooks with something like BRATS could be the main threat, so I opted to deal with that. Against a random rack, B10 MALT wins 92% of the time. If I sim against his racj of BINORS?, a many-ply sim says MALT wins 83%. The duck has a point: even though bingoes aren't a threat on this board, with this much ugliness in my rack, it can only help my cause to force him to have to guess what I might do. And Malt prevents BRATS just the same. I'd have to play this again to be sure, but this play cost me any chance at the game..
>Joe_Edley: ?BINORS 15J aRSINO +28 392
>Jim_Burlant: AINNTTU 9M UNI +19 411
#note NANOS loses by 3 less. Besides the obvious blunder in the early going, the IVY/QI/TRAMs sequence flummoxed me. IVY is defensible, but I definitely did not handle the Q correctly, and it went downhill from there. I've got to play better.
>Joe_Edley: B 11E B.. +18 410
>Joe_Edley: (ANTT) +8 418
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