| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Joey_Mallick Joey Mallick
>Jim_Burlant: AIINRVW 8H INVAR +18 18
#note Perhaps I need to reevaluate my personal bias against duplicated I's, but the IINR leave with 8G VAW struck me as having the potential to take the rack past a probability range I've studied. With 18 points and 5 tiles turned for INVAR, I had a hard time justifying an exchange; as rancid as the W is, it's still significantly more playable than the Q. All in all, I had no idea what to do here so I opted to unload the V, turn 5, and maybe draw a blank or something positive by diving into the tile bag. A sim says 8G VAW is best and that this is mediocre. Interestingly, Championship Player says INVAR is also a strong choice, barely conceding 0.8 equity and not even 0.5% winning chances. Regardless of what's right, from my perspective the game pretty much dissolved from this point forward.
>Joey_Mallick: AFJNOTZ K5 ZON. +26 26
#note A Nigelian J setup.
>Jim_Burlant: ?CINUWX 7H XU +22 40
#note It's either this, or WUZ for 15. XU still sticks me with the W, but it prevents cheap J bombs like JAVA or JIVE. WUZ unloads both the W and the U and defends against the J as well. But WUZ concedes 7 scoreboard points. Either play is a strong choice.
>Joey_Mallick: ADEFJLT 6J J. +25 51
>Jim_Burlant: ?CEINNW L8 .EWIN +16 56
#note This rack looks like it should score a lot more than it does, but nothing scores unless I waste my blank with CaW or NaW L4. If fishing with JOW didn't keep duplicated N's, I'd play JOW. But I want to clean the rack out and 11 E's are still unseen. This is best, though JOW is a strong play as well.
>Joey_Mallick: AADEFLT M9 FETAL +42 93
#note JB: A harbinger of things to come. REWIN was my best play, and all it accomplished was to set him up for 42. Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACENRV N3 CRAVENs +74 130
#note Best bingo. 9B CAVERNS/CRAVENS also worth consideration. Just shy of 60% to win...but not for long.
>Joey_Mallick: ADDELRS 9B LADDERS +71 164
#note Or RADDLES in the same location. Now Joey is in the driver's seat.
>Jim_Burlant: ILOQTTU F6 QUI.T +36 166
#note Which is better - this or B6 QUILT? Even approaching 1500 iterations a two-ply sim can't make up its mind. I thought that QUILT might not only make it that much easier for him to play at 8A, but it now opened up easy 6's to A15. A sim can't decide whether QUILT or QUIET is better, but Championship Player says QUIET was definitely the right call. All I know is that I sure wish I put down QUILT:
>Joey_Mallick: ?BENOOR A9 BORNEOl +89 253
#note Only bingo, and now I'm in trouble: Joey is 87% to win in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: ALLOPTW L4 LAW +36 202
#note K11 WALL scores decently and opens an S hook, but this scores 7 more and opens up B,C, F, and S hooKs on row 3. It's best,but I'm 13% to win.
>Joey_Mallick: GHIMRTU D7 MI.GUT +22 275
>Jim_Burlant: EGLMOPT E11 MOG +22 224
#note My first real miss this game: GOLEM C3 scores 31. This is a good play, but there two better plays available: the aforementioned GOLEM and N12 MOG to open up some scoring opportunities. Regardless, it wouldn't have mattered a whole lot given his next play:
>Joey_Mallick: EHIIPRS J8 .IPERISH +74 349
>Jim_Burlant: ADEELPT 15J .ELPED +39 263
#note Debated between HELPED and HEAPED, and never thought of HEPTAD . HEPTAD scores 45 and should have been the play, but whatever. This is over except for the final score.
>Joey_Mallick: AEIOSUY B7 OI.Y +28 377
>Jim_Burlant: ABGIIOT N12 GIB. +20 283
#note And when it goes badly, it goes badly. If he puts this down one turn ago, Im playing PLEATED for 83 and at least the game is almost even. Instead, it now comes after I had to blow the no-go apart. Just shuffling tiles at this point; I should probably play GI G56 to set myself up for an H1 play.
>Joey_Mallick: AENOSTU 6F .UA +23 400
#note UNHELPED for a lot more.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEHIOT E3 OHIA +27 310
>Joey_Mallick: EENOSTT 4A TEET. +18 418
>Jim_Burlant: ADEKOTY I11 YOK +33 343
#note Just moving tiles.
>Joey_Mallick: CFNORSS 14F CROS. +24 442
#note FONTS is best, threatening ORCS.
>Jim_Burlant: AADEET 3A EAT +14 357
#note Blocking his FENS out play.
>Joey_Mallick: FNS H14 .F +15 457
>Jim_Burlant: ADE G12 DA.E +11 368
>Jim_Burlant: (NS) +4 372
#note After his MIDGUT play, I left points on the table. But, safe to say, there wasn't much I could do about this. Maybe I lose by 50 - 60 if play better, but this just wasn't winnable IMO. |
