| Player 1 |
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#player1 Josh_Sokol Josh Sokol
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Josh_Sokol: AAAGRTW H6 AWA +12 12
#note WAG sims a tiny tiny bit better, just not my style. -0.5
>Jim_Burlant: EEFIMNV I4 VIMEN +23 23
#note Saw a bunch of 12 point FV dumps (FAVE, FIVE), and felt they gave up a bit too much on the scoreboard to justify them. EIMN is a promising leave to be sure, but not in the same league as AERST/CEINT, etc.. At least that was my thought process. Hence, this. Q prefers FAVE 6G and FIVE G8 by a smidge.
>Josh_Sokol: AEGJLRT G3 JETLAG +39 51
#note Or JAG for 35 at 6G.
>Jim_Burlant: AEFILSU F5 IF +32 55
#note Really no other viable options. FUJI scores 14 and sheds the U, but it gives up too much on the scoreboard and has too many board position issues. This is best. The only way he can really hurt me with this is if he's got a Y or a Z.
>Josh_Sokol: BEERTXY J5 TYE +44 95
#note JB: Ugh. He's got the Y.
JS: Jim complained during the game and during his annotation about me having the Y here. It was truly lucky to have drawn it, and TYEE for 6 more was definitely an improvement. I've now made 3 under-simming plays and he's made two perfect plays.
>Jim_Burlant: AELOSUW E2 ALOW +26 81
#note Was a close call between this and OW. One thing that had been bedeviling me this tournament was that blanks were coming way too late; through 14 rounds I had drawn a normal allotment of blanks...but was barely getting one blank bingo every other game, and I was feeling the pressure to get the extra turnover. A sim indicates that either this or OW for 22 are equally good plays. This can only hurt me if he's got the X, right?
>Josh_Sokol: BEORUUX 2B BOR.X +60 155
#note No comment by Jim during the annotation, but during the game he was clearly not happy. It's not that I deserved this, but also I'm holding two U's and he could have gotten rid of his U last turn and prevented this scenario.
>Jim_Burlant: DEFGNSU 3A DEF +28 109
#note JB: Since he burned me with the Y and X, I was probably too paranoiod about some worst-case scenario like QAT or ZAP at A1 instead of playing probability. That's why I fixated on this and whiffed on what should have been the obvious FUNGO 4A. ENUF 1F looks reasonable as well.
JS: success! I have started making Jim make mistakes because of what he perceived as my getting lucky! He missed FUNG(O) here or 1F ENUF which might be more his style since he was now paranoid about me getting QAT or ZAP at A1 (I could just get ZOO now!)
>Josh_Sokol: CEENOUU 1F OUNCE +30 185
#note things are looking alright for me here, despite my earlier mistakes on AWA, TYE and JETLAG
>Jim_Burlant: GNNRSTU D4 STUNG +27 136
#note Or STRUNG in the same location for extra turnover. So far the mistakes have been minor, and ALOW could be chalked up to style preference amplified by bad luck. Anyway, I'm barely at 15% winning chances. I'm going to need a break soon or this one will be history.
>Josh_Sokol: EORU 8A ERU.O +18 203
#note And even then, Quackle will assume that each player will choose equity in every subsequent move of the game, which makes even looking at one's winning chances an inherently flawed metric. OURIE E8 is the play Quackle's Monte Carlo simulation would have looked at, and I didn't play that. ROU(G)E sims 1.2 points higher and I completely acknowledge that I made a mistake here. Yes the R is worse on that rank than the E is, but ROU(G)E does not give an E back to the opponent, thereby increasing his chances of a bingo. I pay very dearly for what could be considered a very minor mistake. Because that's Scrabble. Love it or hate it.
>Jim_Burlant: CEENPRT A6 PR.TENCE +65 201
#note JB: The game changer. Flustered by now, I didn't see much of anything - plays like RECEPT, REPENT 2J didn't thrill me...then I saw this. Wasn't sure of it, but not seeing anything that was good elsewhere (if you miss the 2J plays and don't know the bingo, there is nothing good in this position), I figured I had nothing to lose so I put this down. It's good, and it wins just shy of 37%. The 2J plays barely win 16 - 18%. Oh yeah, there was a bonus:
JS: Jim was flustered, and unsure of this word. I caught on to both of those things, and not having ever seen this myself, challenged and lost the game. Scrabble is as unforgiving as Jim says it is, at least in this one tiny speck of an instance.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AIIOOT - +0 203
#note If I play (C)IAO, I'm a clear favorite to win this game. Instead, I take a 40-point equity loss and a 24% winning chances loss. Just because Jim was unsure of the same word as me.
>Jim_Burlant: AADDIRS 2J DADAS +29 230
#note Mixed feelings. On the one hand, ADIRS is a very promising leave, which is why a fish like B8 RAD looks good. The flip side is that, this entire tournament, too many of my blanks didn't appear, win or lose, until after the game was already decided. So I was feeling pressure to turn tiles. Also, with this game still in the balance, and always feeling like I was on my back foot, I felt taking J2 out was the more important issue. I considered CARDIA 12A, but rejected it for several reasons. Score: DADAS scores 29 to CARDIA's 18. CARDIA also creates lines for easy 7's, so I chose this. This worked oubt, but I'm not sure what I 'd do if I had this turn to do again. YMMV.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AIIIOT L1 I.IOT +14 217
#note self-descriptive play, and best since it seems to block a big scoring spot
>Jim_Burlant: AHIIKRR 12A .HIRK +28 258
#note Best. Now in the driver's seat - 63.5% to win. N2 SHIRK is runner up and it wins 3-1/2% less often.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AADEOV 13E AVO +13 230
#note AVA seemed tempting to set up O(KA) immediately but it's just not worth it, I don't draw into all that much there and I hit much more elsewhere.
>Jim_Burlant: AILRRUZ 1L .ZAR +52 310
#note JB: Awesome draw!
JS: I was shocked by this, totally awestruck. I thought I was supposed to be the only guy lucking into 50 to 60-point plays this game.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ADEIOY 11E OY +24 254
#note should have gone more aggro with O(KA)Y I guess. Don't think I can hold this game unless I score a lot more and Jim stops scoring.
>Jim_Burlant: EILRSSU M1 ..S +28 338
#note JB: No 7's in this rack and the only 8 is with a T for SURLIEST. With no bingoes playable, the best play in this situation is to score 28 and dink off one S while keeping the rack together. 94% to win.
JS: ouch, I'm in big trouble.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ADEIIL 12G DELIrIA +69 323
#note JS: I should definitely play LIAIsED here based on his range. I'm hoping to bingo out on him as I know there are only 7 tiles left after this play.
JB: A timely hit by Josh. I've played a reasonably clean game to this point; mistakes have been minor and/or inconsequential. But Josh's hitting on this turn forced what might be a mistake on my end:
>Jim_Burlant: EGILRSU 14G LIGURES +64 402
#note JB: I saw the bingo and autopiloted it. But, after I drew my replacement tiles, I really questioned this choice. DELIRiA left 6 tiles in the bag; should I just take my chances he doesn't have a bingo or Q bomb? LIGURES could set him up for a game-winning play he currently doesn't have. I got away with this during the game, but I'm not sure if this was right.
JS: unlikely as this is to cost him the game, I at least made this an interesting position to ponder.
>Josh_Sokol: EEHMOPT 15L HOPE +50 373
>Jim_Burlant: ?BINNQ C10 Qu.N +24 426
#note Failure to recognize the new words strikes yet again: NIQaB C11 scores 30. Will these new words ever become reflexive?
>Josh_Sokol: EMT 10F MET +24 397
#note I hate Dole bananas, so I refuse to play the word DOLE for fear it's just as much of a fraud as the company. I am definitely paying the price for what happened in 2014, when I mistakenly thought we had tied at 325. I stole the game from Jim and he definitely deserves to keep beating me like this for a long time. That was not fair to him and I will always regret my actions from 2014.
>Josh_Sokol: (BNI) +10 407 |
