| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jackson Jackson
#player2 Matt Matt
>Jackson: ?DFILRS H4 FLoRIDS +78 78
>Jackson: ?DFILRS -- -78 0
#note J: FLIRS is the highest static play, interesting.
>Matt: AAAJNRU H6 AJAR +22 22
#note M: Can't play JURA here because it gives back FLUoRIDS, which I'd imagine he sees after his last play....
But should I play RAJ instead? AANU is bad but I KNOW that Jackson doesn't have the hook. Thoughts?
>Jackson: ?DFILRS 6H .RF +14 14
#note J: If i'm sure of the S hook on FRAIL maybe I do that
>Matt: AIINNOU I4 IN.O +15 37
#note M: Now that I know Jackson's partial rack of DILS?, I can assume he's almost definitely bingoing next turn (a sim of his next turn shows he's bingoing 87% of the time) so I like opening up this threatening scoring spot to make him either sacrifice to block or to give me more points next turn... my leave isn't conducive to scoring well there but I could always draw something, right?
Jackson said after the game that he was concerned I was setting up the X...
>Jackson: ?DEILST 4F SED.LITy +70 84
>Jackson: ?DEILST -- -70 14
#note J: I totally thought this was good (confusing it with SEDULITY), and I felt like there was a good enouch chance Matt was setting up the X or at least a big tile like the K or H that this was a worthwhile sacrifice. Once again I was totally off with my analysis, ISLeTED would have worked out so much better. Even with X inferred, ISLETED does better than DELIMITS, the valid bingo I could have played to block the spot!
>Matt: ALNNORU 5I .OUNAL +17 54
#note WHIFF! NONRURAL
>Jackson: ?DEILST N1 DuEL.IST +70 84
#note I should just do m(U)STELID here, it creates enough scoring spots to counter H1, especially now that NOUNAL mostly confirms he wasn't holding a great scoring leave. this might be too ham on the opening front.
>Matt: GINORRR H1 RING +26 80
>Jackson: AAISUWY 1L WA.Y +45 129
>Matt: EHLOPRR O7 HOPER +41 121
>Jackson: AAEIOSU 9F AU.EI +7 136
#note there are a lot of consonants left, so keeping vowels isn't so bad. I played AUREI to counter the N10 spot, since there isn't really another good scoring spot on the board. I thought about U(N)AI to keep the E, but I liked keeping AOS here and a good chance at a nice scoring play. All the plalys sim really close.
>Matt: BELMRTZ 2F BL.TZ +42 163
>Jackson: ?AEIOOS J1 A.O +12 148
#note didn't feel like A(GI)O was worth it - although it creates a nice 7s line that guarantees I'll have a 7s line next turn (in case HOPERS gets blocked), I feel like my bingo is certain enough that I won't want that as a threat in the future if I get a lead. the extra point with AZO also doesn't hurt.
>Matt: EEIMRUY N10 YE +28 191
#note I feel Jackson is close to a bingo and I want to obstruct his best line and score points. I'm not super excited about EIMRU but worse things have happened
>Jackson: ?DEIORS 12I rOIDERS +84 232
>Jackson: ?DEIORS -- -84 148
#note J: only 3 As out and the H column scoring spot with avoiders isn't even that dangerous - I think lowering the bingo % is more important after YE.
M: We were playing casually without formal blank designations, but Jackson said "R" when making his play so he took it back. I offered to let him keep it on the board but he declined. Such sportsmanship
>Matt: CEIMNRU F8 M.NICURE +66 257
#note This was such a hard play to make! Knowing Jackson's rack of DEIORS? makes it seem insane to play an E in the 3x3, but I looked through all the possible racks and I couldn't find a single word, so I think this is safe...
>Jackson: ?DEIORS 15F .mEROIDS +80 228
#note ...and it is safe! Jackson has no possible 3x3s.
>Matt: BINPVVW 11K WIV.. +22 279
#note I don't know what to do here. Speedy Q suggests that I exchange, but sim would rather I play and score. Given that I'm up 30 and a tempo, I want to keep scoring points. I gave some serious thought to VIV(E) for 14 instead because it obstructs so many possibilities for 8s, but I didn't think I could sacrifice too many points with a bad leave - last thing I want is to be outrun
>Jackson: EEELOQS 13C SEQ.EL +32 260
>Matt: BEKNPSV M3 BE.K +36 315
#note J: I think two plays I would make are V(E)EP d12 or 12b KEP (as Matt told me after the game that he considered). KEP is beautiful because it sets up his case S and that's not an easy setup to block - KEP also blocks the C and D column for immediate bingoes.
M: KEP at 12B was my first thought, but I just had a bad feeling about it. I felt it to be too cute and that I shouldn't be sacrificing so many points to "feel smart" about setting up (aka telegraphing) my S.
>Jackson: ACEHOTT 3C TACO +16 276
#note Fuck - missed HA(V)OC! That is far and away the best play, actually gives me a decent shot at outrunning if I draw decently. I was too focused on the mission to open the board that I didn't even look for great scoring plays.
>Matt: FNNPSTV D12 V.NT +16 331
#note Sadness for me as I draw a bunch more consonants.... waah
>Jackson: ADEHOTX 4A HOAX +56 332
>Matt: EFGINPS 15A GIF. +24 355
#note with 5 tiles unseen, Matt really wants to prevent me from doing an out in two - leaving 2 or 3 in the bag seems like a good idea. There aren't many good places to play 2 tiles, so if Matt plays 2 tiles, I will probably not play 2 tiles cause that lets him play a 1 in the bag endgame. I think playing 3 tiles is interesting, but I could play 5 tiles and give myself a good shot at an outplay - Champ interestingly likes GENIP 5C, emptying the bag! I guess the thought is that at an even score right now, matt is gonna get two plays and I'm gonna get two plays + whatever is left on matt's rack - I will be forced to make an out in two such that my first play lets me play out with my leave, whereas Matt can choose his one play without concern for his leave playing out, which ends up giving him flexibility. I guess at an even score right now and keeping FS which are good for scoring, Matt is the favourite to win even by emptying the bag. very interesting. I would probably end up with something like EF leaving 3 in the bag.
M: Strangely, when I run championship player on this rack its favorite by a big margin is FIS(H), doing exactly what GIF(T) was meant to do but scoring a little more and allowing me GEN(I)P/E(VENT), draws into GENIP at 5C, and I guess just puts Jackson in a thornier situation. GENIP is also interesting and changes the way I think about pre-endgames a little - maybe sometimes it's okay to concede that my opponent can go out first, but I can score a lot to win anyway.
>Jackson: ADEMOTU A3 T.OUED +30 362
#note figured I need to draw an outplay to win, and AM would maximize my shots (keeping 2 tiles instead of 3), and AM also will score decently. Champ likes this best at 45%
>Matt: DEGNPST 5C PENDS +31 386
#note quackle predicted this rack! crazy
M: I was super happy to see that our best-of-seven began with a game where Jackson loses three turns on phoneys and still wins the game, but I've been humbled by the miss of NONRURAL and the likely misplays of BEAK and GIFT. Scrabble's hard, and the theme of this series seemed to be that Jackson kept hitting low-probability events to make things interesting in games that shouldn't be close, but also me not properly maintaining my composure when Jackson did those things and bleeding further into my chances. Psychologically, I get this feeling of "I'm going to lose" when bad things happen to me in endgames and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I need to fix that pronto.
>Jackson: AEIM M9 MA.IE +32 394
>Jackson: (GT) +6 400
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