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#player1 Matt_Canik Matt Canik
#player2 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
>Matt_Canik: AIOTTUW H3 OUTWAIT +72 72
#note The highest-simming placement seems to be putting the U on the star....?
>Jackson_Smylie: CEIINST 10B INCITES +74 74
#note Okay, that Z hook is going to be fun!
>Matt_Canik: AGNNORR 3C ORGAN.N +20 92
#note Seemed like a relative toss-up between this and GAR(C)ON, with this turning over an extra tile. I went for that because I want the Z. Q's preference by 2 points, though, is NOT 11E for 14. AGNR is a pretty awesome leave with two separate floating Is and a T in a 2x2 as well... I making bingo-or-die plays, but NOR just pays off so often and if there's an opponent to make those plays against, it's someone rated much higher than me like Jackson.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEHY 2C YEAH +41 115
#note This was played almost instantly
>Matt_Canik: ?ADELRR 1E LARDiER +81 173
#note I sacrificed one point to address the hottest spot on the board instead of playing a 2x2 like DREAR(I)Ly.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEEFFIL D8 FA.ILE +30 145
#note Big relief that he had the FE to hit 2J and couldn't make a play there.... though after the game, he told me that his leave was FE
>Matt_Canik: BEGIUWY 13C B.IGY +30 203
#note Really tough choice for me here. The sim winner is GYBE 4A, scoring 38 and holding IUW. I couldn't hold a worse leave if I tried, and I don't like opening up 3x3s when I'm ahead 28 and a tempo, but maybe I should? or maybe GIBE holding UWY instead so that I have more scoring options?
This only sims a point behind and given the game state, I think I'd still make this play again if I could.
>Jackson_Smylie: DFI 8A DIF. +33 178
>Matt_Canik: AEOOSUW 4B OWE +27 230
#note Such an annoying turn. OWE is so bad because it opens up the L and H hooks (no Ys left) but it's so far superior to the other plays from an equity perspective that I feel like I have to make it - AWE in the same spot is the only other worthwhile candidate, but AOSU is so superior to OOSU that it's not worth avoiding the hooks.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?DEEERR 12G bREEDER +70 248
>Matt_Canik: AOSSUVV E5 VAVS +32 262
>Jackson_Smylie: DOP 11J POD +25 273
#note Jackson is slightly behind in this game - closing the board like this made me wonder if he was confident. perhaps he has an S for bREEDERS? Not a sure bet, but I'd up his odds of holding one for sure.
>Matt_Canik: CILORSU A1 OCULI +32 294
>Jackson_Smylie: AZ G7 ZA +44 317
>Matt_Canik: EKLNRST J11 ..RK +20 314
#note heartbreak city to see TINKLERS get blocked, but I'm still loving this play and my chances after it. Q says I'm 40% to bingo after this, and I score 54 ppt.
>Jackson_Smylie: HJ 6D H.J +29 346
#note Also played instantly, which has me strongly suspecting that Jackson has 7 consonants on this rack - he didn't even think about blocking PERKS, which means he can't
>Matt_Canik: ABELNST 15H ABSENT +38 352
#note But this is not good. I missed my bingo and Jackson is starting to run away with the game. Looking at the pool, I realized that this game is probably coming down to two tiles: The S in the bag and (especially) the X. The X has spots available at 2J and I7. I can fish here with something like IN/IN 11E for 8 or (DE)B for 6, but if Jackson ends up hitting the X then I'm probably still the underdog (if I hit my fish in the first place). Because of that, I decided against fishing. I have other intermediate plays like BEL, BET, or BEN at 13L, but those open up extra volatility and scoring chances for jackson, have lower odds of hitting a bingo, and eliminate the BREEDERS hook.
A Q sim prefers the fish here, but I don't know how this situation changes based on my strong assumption that Jackson has 5 consonants (of which, one could easily be an S... or the Q... or the X?).
I decided to dig into the bag to maximize my chances of drawing one or both of those key tiles.
>Jackson_Smylie: QSU N12 SUQ +32 378
#note This was also played extremely quickly
>Matt_Canik: EILPTTU O13 PIT +30 382
>Jackson_Smylie: OX 2I OX +52 430
#note For those keeping score, jackson's last four moves were power plays with the J, Z, QS, and X.
>Matt_Canik: ELNOOTU K1 .OUEN +20 402
>Jackson_Smylie: AEEGIMN L4 MAGE +24 454
>Matt_Canik: LMOT 10K MOLT +18 420
#note The ABELNST rack was super difficult for me and I still don't know what's the best thing to do in that position, but Jackson said after the game that he'd been sitting on the S before I played ABSENT and I think he was prepared to play QUINS/PERKS next turn, so in this 1-ply sim I was damned if I fished or if I played long. Ah well
>Matt_Canik: (EIN) +6 426
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