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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Chris_Schneider Chris Schneider
>Jim_Burlant: AADEIMU -AU +0 0
#note Context: KOTH. The previous round's results mean that I can't cash. However, there are still rating points to play for; a win in this one will allow me to break a skid in which I've dropped 88 rating points in the last 4 months. As for this: I never recognized ADIEU, and AMU for 10 didn't thrill me, as the ADEI leave felt too vowel heaviy. A sim confirms that if you whiff on ADIEU, exchanging AU as I did is best of the rest. The analytics show it's a minor mistake, not a major blunder.
>Chris_Schneider: AELOPUX -2 +0 0
>Jim_Burlant: AADEGIM 8H AG +6 6
#note If this had been my opening rack, I would have auto-piloted IMAGED 8C for 26. However, he's just exchanged 2, he's obviously close to a bingo, and he probably kept 4 one-point tiles and maybe a D or a G. Given that, if I play IMAGED, he has a good shot at coming back for over 70 while I'm sitting on a random rack. For 40 points or more, I'd blow the rack apart if he's just exchanged 2. But not for only 26. I wanted to limit him to air balls down the J column if he didn't hit an 8 in the H column. While my play worked in this game, in retrospect I'm not sure I played this correctly. If I could play short and limit his options for 7's to rows 7 and 9, or the G and I columns, I would think then that the defensive tack would have been more appropriate. Definitely an interesting position.
>Chris_Schneider: AIJO J6 JIAO +31 31
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIMRV H5 MAR.VEDI +65 71
#note Not being certain that this word took a back S (it does), I was taking no chances. That's why I played this at H5 instead of H7. This word is the only bingo, and a sim makes clear this is by far the better choice.
>Chris_Schneider: ABTU G4 TUBA +18 49
>Jim_Burlant: AANQRSW 4C QANA. +28 99
#note At this point I felt confident this was going to be my game. His early exchange didn't work, he was constantly turning 4 tiles, his last play gave me what I needed to dump my Q, and I was sitting on an S. A sim backs this feeling up: I'm a 2-in-3 shot to win at this point.
>Chris_Schneider: ELZ F2 ZE.L +38 87
>Jim_Burlant: GIRSSUW C2 SU. +24 123
#note While my first and second turns could be debated due to strategic rationale, that's not the case here. If there was an intermediate turn I missed that turned the game, this was it. It's not the 2 scoreboard points I sacrifed, but the board position and rack. As I entered the rack in Quackle, I recognized the play I never saw during the game: SWIG K8 unloads the W as well as one of my duplicated S's, and doesn't set up the improbable mid-game sequence that turned the game. A sim confirms that SWIG was the play and that, no surprise, this is weak.
>Chris_Schneider: CELORSV F7 CLOVERS +75 162
>Jim_Burlant: EGIORSW K9 WOG +19 142
#note I saw 3 plays in this position: GROWER 12A, which I rejected as needlessly volatile, WO E11, and this. WO outscores this by a couple, but the N-less G needs to go if I can get rid of it. Quackle agrees- this was best. However, this is where my having missed SWIG on the previous turn did me in.
>Chris_Schneider: ADEILPT L4 TALIPED +85 247
#note Ouch! What's he doing with this if I don't open up the eastern hemisphere on the last turn? Quackle confirms what was pretty obvious at the time: I'm in major trouble. Chris is now 91% to win in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: EEIKRST 8L .IKE +30 172
#note TALIPED hurt a lot more than just in the scoreboard: he blocked KEISTER L4.
>Chris_Schneider: EEFNRRT K3 REF +24 271
#note Actual rack - he told me after the game he had chickened out on REFERENT. This was a huge break, as you'll see in a second.
>Jim_Burlant: EFOORST 2H FOETORS +81 253
#note Prior to his opening the T hook, I had resigned myself to playing FOOT E11 to open up row 15 for my S. I couldn't believe my luck when he put REF down. I'm back up to 23% winning chances.
>Chris_Schneider: EGNNORT 1G NOG +30 301
#note Actual rack - he told me after the game all he saw was NONGREET*, which he knew was phony, but couldn't remember that ROENTGEN was the legitimate 8 in that set of letters. Lucky for me he couldn't find it.
>Jim_Burlant: AEHLNRU 1L HAUL +46 299
#note The only bingoes in this rack are LAUNCHER/RELAUNCH, and INHAULER, which means no bingoes play. I'm crawling my way back into this game; back to 35% to win with this, which is by far and away my best play.
>Chris_Schneider: EMPT 12D PE.M.T +20 321
>Jim_Burlant: DEENORX B1 DEX +35 334
#note I saw two plays here: 13B EXONS and this. I opted for DEX because of the 5 extra scoreboard points and the balanced leave. A sim says I identified the two best candidates, but that EXONS wins 0.5% more often with an equity difference of 0.4 points. In retrospect I see why EXONS may be worth sacrificing the 5 scoreboard points: it opens up the B column for bingoes (essential if he hits down the N or O columns), I still keep an E, there are still 3 N's at large, and more importantly, it turns one more tile with both blanks at large. Don't get me wrong, DEX is still an A play; EXONS looks to be the A+ play. 42% to win.
>Chris_Schneider: NWY 5K ..WNY +14 335
>Jim_Burlant: EINORSU N8 .ORUNIES +78 412
#note My best legitimate play is sick: REEDINGS 11E. If you miss that, your options are limited to fishes like D11 UP/UPO. SOU 13H (not an option because I wasn't sure of the S back hook on MARAVEDI)and they barely win 43%. Not seeing REEDINGS, and not liking the fishing plays, I saw KORUNY when I looked at the K put this down in a moment of inspiration. He held, but there was a subtle tell in his voice when he said, "I accept", that told me I had just made a mistake. This is by far the best play I can make against a random rack...but against his next rack it hurt more than it helped.
>Chris_Schneider: ?ABCDRT 15G CATBiRD. +89 424
#note Only bingo - and a very nice find. That said, Quackle thinks he should pass up the bingo with E11 BEARD. And somehow it thinks he can only win 73% even when simming against the rack I just drew. How does he not win 100%?
>Jim_Burlant: EHIIOTY A1 OY +30 442
#note Unlike my previous tournament, time was not a problem and I had plenty of time to figure this end game out. Unfortunately, all the time in the world won't change anything when you don't have a win. I lamented that I didn't have a B or P for BITSY or POTSY on row 13, and knew that HOTSY* wasn't going to fly. Post-mortem, it turns out that unlike me, Chris had recognized the row 11 plays and was going to play NEEDING had I blocked his impending out play. Best play for me per Championship Player is YIPE D10 which loses by 3 less.
>Chris_Schneider: ?EIINN D4 .NIlINE +7 431
#note D8 NINEPIN scores 2 more, but whatever - he wins no matter what.
>Chris_Schneider: (EHIIT) +16 447
#note Knowing what I know now, the tile bag when I put down KORUNIES was EEHIIIINOTY?. Drawing 7 tiles from that bag, I had a 54/55% chance of landing the blank...and I missed it. If I find REEDINGS, the only thing that's certain is it's a different game, but no guarantee the outcome is any different. Maybe he wins, maybe he doesn't, but missing REEDINGS put me in a position where whoever had the second blank was probably going to win. Very frustrating to analyze when they repeatedly come down to coulda/woulda/shoulda with no definite change in the outcome.
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