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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Joey_Krafchick Joey Krafchick
>Jim_Burlant: EEILNUY 8G YULE +14 14
#note So blinded by the UY combo that I never even saw anything else. I had been a U magnet this day and when I saw the chance to unload the U, that was that. A sim feels it's a tossup between 8D YEELIN and this word, though it gives slight preference to the 8E placement over this.
>Joey_Krafchick: MUV 7E VUM +21 21
>Jim_Burlant: ?CEINUU I7 U.U +5 19
#note Par for the course this day: unload UY and get UU right back. I thought I might have missed something better, but there is nothing good. This is best per the duck. I also don't think it would be unreasonable to exchange the U's - 5 points for ULU amounts to a passed turn, and maybe someone other than me can draw a bunch of U's for once?
>Joey_Krafchick: CIP 9E PIC +23 44
>Jim_Burlant: ?BCEEIN D8 BENEfIC +84 103
#note Only bingo. 68% to win in a short sim, but not for long.
>Joey_Krafchick: ?GLOOST K2 LOGOuTS +72 116
#note Best bingo for Joey.
>Jim_Burlant: AADEEIQ L1 QADI +59 162
#note Obviously the play I have to make, but that E hook on row 15 is screaming to be taken out...will I be able to beat him to it?
>Joey_Krafchick: DEOZ 15A DOZE +57 173
>Jim_Burlant: AAEEOTW M2 WAE +30 192
#note I stopped looking once I saw this - scores 30, prevents easy QATS/QAID/QADI plays at L1, and unloads the W. This is best. 48% to win, but not for long.
>Joey_Krafchick: EHORRST 13A HER.TORS +74 247
>Jim_Burlant: AAEKLOT 10B KA.AT +29 221
#note Unable to think of AKELA (which would have played for 23 at 12H), none of the other options I saw really appealed to me. They either didn't score enough or didn't turn enough tiles. I thought if I turned a couple of more tiles, I might have a shot at the X for COX (and score more while I was at it). My gut said this was phony, but I also thought it had a chance to stick. My hunch was right: TANKA is the legitimate word in these letters. Joey held this, but wasn't sure enough to challenge, so he let it go. My best legitimate play is SKA H13, which wins roughly 2/3% less often and sims 3 points down on this.
>Joey_Krafchick: ALTV 11A VAL.T +34 281
>Jim_Burlant: EELNOOW H11 OW.EN +36 257
#note I saw this and looked no further. This is best; the duck confirms that nothing else is worth playing. For reference, 14D COW is next best andwins 4% less often at an equity deficit of 8 points.
>Joey_Krafchick: ADEHNPS N4 DAPHNES +77 358
>Jim_Burlant: ABEEILO M8 OBELIA +33 290
#note I still haven't given up hope. I'm scoring well, I'm keeping up with his tempo, and I'm still not out of it if I can land the X...but I need to get lucky.
>Joey_Krafchick: OX 14D .OX +55 413
#note Sigh.
>Jim_Burlant: EIMORTT 8A TOM. +24 314
#note And so much for that. Watching the X come down was the needle that popped my balloon. This game is now over. The bingo doesn't play (why couldn't I have drawn this rack 1 turn ago?) but there are still scoring plays available and I should look to find them. MOT plays at O7 for 36, and MOTT plays for 42. Not that it really matters at this point: those plays win 0.45% and this wins 0.27.
>Joey_Krafchick: AIJ 11J JAI. +22 435
>Jim_Burlant: EFINRRT 12L F.RN +26 340
>Joey_Krafchick: FINRRSY C6 RI. +6 441
>Jim_Burlant: EFIINRT O12 .EIF +21 361
>Joey_Krafchick: ER E5 RE. +12 453
>Jim_Burlant: GGINRTY A4 GRIT.Y +12 373
>Joey_Krafchick: ADEINS O5 DAIS +36 489
>Jim_Burlant: GN 14H .NG +8 381
>Jim_Burlant: (EN) +4 385
#note Through OBELIA I had literally played a positve-equity game thanks to my KANAT* phony...and I was barely at 2.5% winning chances. I only conceded equity after his play of COX. Some games just are not winnable, and this one is living proof.
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