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#player1 jvc jvc
#player2 Will Will
>jvc: ?AGNOVZ 8D GAZON +34 34
>Will: IIKNORU 7G KOI +26 26
#note W: Wow, Quackle likes KURI# more than I expected. I'm fine with the better defense of KOI, and it bingos about the same amount too.
>jvc: ?EJLOVY 9C JOY +29 63
>Will: INORRTU C9 .UROR +24 50
>jvc: ?EIILOV 6H OLIVInE +68 131
>Will: ADILNNT 12B N.NTIDAL +70 120
>jvc: ?ADEPQU F10 QU.P +35 166
#note J: Chickened out on OPAQUED.
>Will: AEFGNRV H11 F.VER +33 153
>jvc: ?ADDEFT 5B DrAFTED +77 243
>Will: AEEGLNN 15D ENLA.GEN +60 213
>jvc: DEGRRTT L4 GR.TTED +20 263
>Will: AELOPRS O2 REPOSAL +96 309
>Will: AACOTUW (challenge) +5 314
#note J: Wasn't sure if OLIVINE took the S.
>jvc: ABHIMRS 14J HARIM +51 314
#note J: M9 MIHRABS. I knew this rack had a seven, but I also had no idea what it was.
>Will: AACOTUW 9G WAAC +34 348
#note W: This sim result is really interesting. I saw but dismissed 2I ACATOUR# as too volatile. But Quackle loves it. Its reasons for that are varied. The first is simply that after HARIM# both the X and the esses just got more valuable and I get two more draws at them with ACATOUR# than with WAAC#. The next is that by keeping a W I'm ensuring that I can hit the triple harder if Josh doesn't play there (for example if he already has the X and is playing on row 13 no matter what), and that I can hit the X bomb harder with WAX or WEX/E if he does use the triple and I draw the X instead. Lastly ACATOUR# seemed crazy to me because it opened the board up for bingos needlessly, but a closer look at the pool reveals that the threat of a bingo is overblown. There's almost no low-point consonants left. Q puts Josh's bingo% at about 7 percent and you can't tell very much about his leave from HARIM#. Very instructive!
>jvc: ABBIMSX 13K MAX +49 363
>Will: EEOTUUY 4D YOU +29 377
>jvc: BBEIOSS O12 BISE +38 401
>Will: EEHIITU 10J HI.E +31 408
#note J: This is top equity, but Championship Player and a sim gives 10J HI(D) winning about 30% of the time whereas this play wins about 20%. I'm not sure why, maybe EETUI hits more bingoes to the R? Lemme know if you find out. W: Another very instructive situation! HID > HIDE for two reasons. The first more obvious reason is that it guarantees me FEET 11I for 28 in reserve, which is a nice play to have in my pocket in the endgame. HIDE forces me to redraw an E or an S for FEIS#. The second reason is endgame timing - leaving two in the bag is much better for me than leaving just one because this endgame may come down to whether or not you can go out on your next move, and adding an extra tile to pick helps me there. For example if you still play BEST 14A you'll have to deal with five tiles rather than four. Certainly my chances aren't great in either case.
>jvc: BENOSST 14A BEST +27 428
#note J: Championship Player gives this a 7/8 win percentage, but I can't find the 1/8 win for Will. Again lemme know. W: It's 8/8, it sometimes does that.
>Will: CEEIITU 2J CUITE. +28 436
>jvc: NOSW 3F OWNS +15 443
>jvc: (EI) +4 447
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