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#player1 Cesar_Jarmillo Cesar Jarmillo
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Cesar_Jarmillo: ACF 8G CAF +16 16
>Jim_Burlant: AABDEGI 9H BAG +17 17
#note Context: round 17. After a disappointing day 2, I'm 8-8 and have played my way down the standings. But I have so much spread for such a mediocre record that, if I win out, I'll probably cash. But I have to win them all. As for this: I saw this rack and hoped for an R or N...and was crestfallen - but not surprised given how this tournament was going - that he opened CAF. My options are pretty much indistinguishable atop a sim. GAED J6, GAE J6, this, J7 BEAD,J4 BADGE...they all win within 0.3% and sim within 1 point of each other. Pick your poison.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: EJST 10F JEST +38 54
>Jim_Burlant: ADDEIII -DIII +0 17
#note And the drawing frustration continues. Not the draw I was looking for. The only question here: exchange 4 or 5? I see nothing wrong with keeping ADE. Q says exchanging 5 wins 0.1% more often and is 0.4 points better. This is best of the rest. 30% to win.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: EIKMUYZ -5 +0 54
>Jim_Burlant: ABDEINT J7 BE. +15 32
#note It's either this or F10 JIB, and I couldn't wrap my arms around opening up row 13, regardless of whether I had an E. This is best. If you don't mind living dangerously, JIB is also good.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: LOX 11E LOX +38 92
>Jim_Burlant: ADIINST 12C ADIT +22 54
#note Only two obvious choices: ADIT or DIT. I don't care if I have an A to front hook it - I don't want to give him easy places to play, which is why I went with this. The duck thinks DIT is marginally better, but the difference (0.4% winning chances, 0.4 points) is stylistic preference. I'm fine with this.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: AHT 13C HAT +28 120
>Jim_Burlant: AIINNST K4 INIA +12 66
#note Nothing really scores here, but I don't like any of my equity plays. 14C IN seems like it's asking for it, 14B TIN isn't much better and it breaks up the rack. 7J BIN gives back the world, regardless of whether I have . And given how this tournament has gone and this game is progressing, I don't want to give him easy points on row 15. Given that I felt my best tack was to open the northeast. Q predictably doesn't like this because I blow up AINST for nothing, and it wants me to man up and play In 14C. In retrospect I'm not sure what I'd do if I had this turn to do over, but this did work out.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: HMU L7 HUM +17 137
#note Thankfully he missed these letters at J2:
>Jim_Burlant: ELNOOST 4G LOON.EST +68 134
#note Only bingo. Back from 22% winning chances to 37 or so.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: DEEINR 3C REINED +22 159
>Jim_Burlant: EEIORVY 11I EVERY +29 163
#note It's either this word, M9 IVORY, or 4A VIER. Q gives slight preference to IVORY. I'd rather limit his bingo possibilities as quickly as possible, which IVORY doesn't do as well IMO. I also thought IE was marginally better as a leave than EE given the pool. 37% to win.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: DIIRV 5C VIRID +22 181
>Jim_Burlant: ?IIOOOW -IIOOOW +0 163
#note In total disbelief when I looked at this rack. I saw the obvious B13 WOO and thought that if I played that, the right rack on his end and wrong draw on mine could put the game out of reach, so I felt it better to throw in. If I had looked harder at the board, I'd have realized it was unnecessary to exchange because there was a really slick play that would have been well worth making: WOO 1OK scores 26 and doesn't really open any danger unless he has an S. And with only 1 I unseen, I can probably get away with keeping IIO?. 46% to win. By comparison, WOO 10K wins 51 and sims 8 points better.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: MTU 2E TUM +20 201
>Jim_Burlant: ?AENRWY 14B YAW +31 194
#note This is what happens when you spend most of the previous day struggling and your first 6 or 7 turns in this game are just as much of a struggle and you keep getting back the junky consonants you just unloaded: you miss plays you're normally capable of finding. I never saw ENTRYWAY, which scores 92 at N2, and I couldn't think of WANEY. And I knew TRAWNEYS* was phony but couldn't think of STERNWAY N3, which I would have passed up. And I flat out missed UNWEARY, which would have scored 69 at 14E. In short, I seeing the WY in my rack frustrated me and I whiffed on everything. Still 57% to win but I should be bingoing and winning 75.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: ENNOT 15D NONET +27 228
>Jim_Burlant: ?EELNOR 14F ERELONg +68 262
#note At least I get this right. Best bingo, and it's 63% to win.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: AQ N2 QA. +24 252
>Jim_Burlant: ?AILPRW O1 PIA +28 290
#note The board is totally dead bingo-wise, and I have the blank. No reason to worry about rack building here, so I'll just max my points out. The duck thinks I should play for 23 and keep the A; I'm fine with this.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: EEFS 12K FEES +28 280
>Jim_Burlant: ?AILRWZ 15A ZA +38 328
#note Proabbly more worried about what he would do here rather than look for my best play. IZAR 15L scores 44. 96% to win; IZAR wins 97.5, but this one's over except for the shouting.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: GIP 13M PIG +30 310
>Jim_Burlant: ?DGILRW O13 .IG +15 343
#note Not even one of the original options, but this is best. 90% to win.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: CKU L1 CUK. +13 323
>Jim_Burlant: ?DLRRUW C5 .RoUW +14 357
#note Best. He's going to play his S somewhere else and I'll go out with LORD on row 7 for the out in two.
>Cesar_Jarmillo: OOOS 5M OS +17 340
>Jim_Burlant: DLR 7B L.RD +4 361
>Jim_Burlant: (OO) +4 365
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