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#player1 Jared_Cappel Jared Cappel
#player2 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
>Jared_Cappel: HIORU 8D HOURI +24 24
>Jackson_Smylie: AEEFIMP D8 .EMPIE +26 26
>Jared_Cappel: AAERU 14B AURAE +28 52
>Jackson_Smylie: AFHOPSU C9 FOU +27 53
>Jared_Cappel: DITZ 15F DITZ +45 97
>Jackson_Smylie: AGHNPSV C13 H.P +26 79
#note didn't see V(U)GH, which I think I prefer. AGNSV works with the I open, but GV is really bad here besides that. ANPS is way more flexible. VUGH wins a sim handily
>Jared_Cappel: EK 15A KE. +29 126
>Jackson_Smylie: AGNSSTV F7 G.V +7 86
#note totally missed GAV(O)T/GAVOTS. GAVOTS is beautiful.
I didn't like VANGS for closing the big S hook - GUV makes my Ss more powerful and keeps my bingo prospects open with my deficit.
GAVOTS is the play....
>Jared_Cappel: DEWY J12 DEWY +37 163
>Jackson_Smylie: ACENSST 10F STANCES +77 163
>Jared_Cappel: ?EELLRT I2 TELLERs +66 229
>Jackson_Smylie: AGIINTW L3 WAITING. +76 239
>Jared_Cappel: IQ K5 QI +46 275
>Jackson_Smylie: AEINOTU H1 OUTA +22 261
>Jared_Cappel: BOX M2 BOX +43 318
>Jackson_Smylie: AAABEIN G2 BAA +18 279
#note I hate N1 BANE because of all the scores it gives back with the AXE hooks and other parallels, but more importantly, BAA opens the top right which I really need to do given my deficit. I probably need to bingo to win this game, and BAA lets me do that while being a hard to block lane.
AEIN is also deceptively good since the bag is short on vowels
>Jared_Cappel: ENORY N2 ONERY +56 374
>Jackson_Smylie: AAEIIJN O6 AJI +35 314
#note let's try this again
>Jared_Cappel: ?DDELLR 13I D.L +6 380
#note 13 tiles in the bag, endgame timing is everything. If he can play 6 tiles, that is ideal, since I will empty the bag if I bingo, giving him the advantage in the endgame with full knowledge ofm y rack.
There are three places to bingo here - the 5 row, the N column and the 12/13 rows. R(E)DDLE and D(E)LED block two of those places, leaving just BAAS.
At this score, Jared does not need to worry about bingoing himself, but rather about outrunning my own bingo. After DEL, I could bingo and he could not bingo, or we could both bingo but I end up bingoing out. After DEL, 2 lanes are open (5 row and N column), and the 5 row bingoes will open a couple new lanes. This means that if we trade bingoes, I will have the option of bingoing out, since in either case there will be at least one lane open if we trade bingoes.
REDDLE or DELED only really leave the 5 row open, and if I bingo on the 5 row, I will be leaving 1 or 2 tiles in the bag. I will score about 75 with my bingo, which will leave Jared up about 3 points with 1 or 2 tiles in the bag, depending on if he plays REDDLE or DELED. DELED has the slight advantage of completely closing the N lane (REDDLE allows some 8s through the E), but REDDLE has the slight advantage of leaving 1 in the bag if I bingo, which is more advantageous because Jared can play a "1 in the bag endgame", permuting each of the 8 possible draws to figure out what the correct play is in the preendgame.
If Jared is up 3 points with one in the bag, he will be able to block my out-bingoes and also likely outscore in in the endgame, since he has a blank and will have knowledge of the 8 possible draws he could have. Playing 6 tiles would be ideal in order to make me empty the bag if I bingo, but that cannot be done wtihout burning the blank.
Problems here: how can we tell DELED vs. REDDLE, and how do we know that keeping the blank is more important than playing off 6 tiles? I think the only thing we can really intuit here is that playing DEL lends itself to more losing situations than REDDLE/DELED:
DEL loses if:
Jackson bingoes and neither of us bingo afterwards and Jackson manages to outrun in the endgame (not super likely since Jackson bingoing leaves 4 in the bag, so a 3 tile play will not empty the bag and a 3 tile play will score decently)
Jackson bingoes twice
Jackson bingoes, Jared bingoes back, and Jackson bingoes out
REDDLE loses if:
Jackson bingoes and outscores in the endgame (once again not super likely, similar deal as DEL)
Jackson bingoes and draws an unlikely outbingo
I think intuitively we can see that DEL offers more losing situations than REDDLE since REDDLE has more bingo defense, while DEL lends itself to Jackson bingoing twice.
If the rack were DDELLRS, I would probably play R(E)DDLES, because I think at that point the S is less important than leaving 7 or fewer in the bag. I feel like the blank is more important than leaving 7 in the bag, but again I don't have anything but intuition to back that up.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEFIMNS 5A FAMINES +80 394
>Jared_Cappel: ?CDELRR 3A CoRREL...D +74 454
>Jackson_Smylie: GINOOST A5 .OOTINGS +89 483
>Jackson_Smylie: (ENOV) +14 497
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