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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Jon_Shreve Jon Shreve
>Jim_Burlant: ?BCIQSU 8H SQUIB +38 38
#note Context: Round 11. Entering this game at 6-5, I've been struggling. While my own mistakes have definitely contributed to a number of the losses, the draw hasn't been doing me any favors, having been double-blanked six times in my previous seven games. You can imagine how absolutely stoked I was, seeing that I was going to score 38 and keep a blank on my open. As for this position: QI gives up way too much in score and leave just for the sake of keeping an S. This is clearly best. For reference, QI wins approximately 3-1/2% less frequently and sims roughly 10 points down.
>Jon_Shreve: EEINSTU M6 ENSUITE +76 76
#note ...except now, Jon has drawn an opening rack bingo to top my blank rack! Post mortem, Jon and I talked about this - he wasn't sure if ENSUITE took any hooks at all. His best play is to play this at H1.
>Jim_Burlant: ?CIRRST 12G STRICt.R +70 108
#note A frustrating rack in that it looks like there should be a 7, but the duplicated R limits my options. I burned a lot of time looking for the 7 that Quackle confirms isn't there. Like Jon, I wasn't entirely sure whether ENSUITE took any back hooks, and I didn't want to find out the hard way that it might. That said, I may have shortchanged myself here; CRITTERS 12H in the same location scores 6 more. Best play of all though is counterintuitive since I should pass up the bingo: CRITS 13I scores 36 and is best. Too bad I was fixated on bingoing.
>Jon_Shreve: AAU I7 A.UA +15 91
>Jim_Burlant: EHIKOPU N3 OUPH +30 138
#note I'd normally want to unload the E with OUPHE, but I didn't want to give him an easy 30 back at O8. 20/20 hindsight says I should take the extra points for OUPHE, since he does have a potentially good spot at O1. Nonetheless this is a minor nit, not a major gaffe.
>Jon_Shreve: AYY O1 YAY +32 123
>Jim_Burlant: ACEIIKN H12 .IKI +24 162
#note Missing ANTICK H10. ANTICK scores 38 and turns 2 more tiles with the blank unseen; this scores 14 fewer, though I do keep more of the rack together. 65% to win; antick wins just under 68% and sims 5 pts better.
>Jon_Shreve: ATW J10 WA.T +28 151
>Jim_Burlant: AACEINR 11A ACARINE +70 232
#note Or CARINAE. 80% to win. To this point I haven't been perfect, but the mistakes have either been very mild, or the points conceded most likely came out in the wash (e.g.: TIKI instead of ANTICK). The next set of turns are where I started struggling. I felt like, even though I could score, I was starting to lose the plot. I didn't feel like I did a good job managing the racks vis-a-vis the board.
>Jon_Shreve: AEX 10D AXE +27 178
>Jim_Burlant: HLNOOTW M1 NOH +30 262
#note Sure enough, I whiff. Don't ask me how, but after he blocked what had been my impending WHORL D8, I never saw WHOA 8A. Best play though, is a 7 I've never seen anywhere: WOOLHAT A6 would have taken care of the rack problems a lot better than this. I'm still 82% and change to win.
>Jon_Shreve: BEGOR A8 BOR.GE +33 211
>Jim_Burlant: FGJLOTW B6 FLOW +27 289
#note Not the draw I was expecting; the unseen tiles gave me a 77% chance of drawing a vowel when I picked 3 from that bag. I didn't see a J play I liked so the play was to unload some of the garbage and turn 4 tiles and score. Why not JOWLS instead of this? With L2 open, I was hoping against hope that maybe I could turn 4 tiles and land one of those A's for a better J play on the next turn. A sim says it's either JOWLS or this as a close second. N10 FORT is also a reasonable choice.
>Jon_Shreve: DDEILO A1 DILDOE +35 246
>Jim_Burlant: DEEGJTT J6 JE. +28 317
#note This is my highest scoring option but it doesn't clear the rack. Better would have been JETTIED for 23 on row 15 for more turnover and some better defense.
>Jon_Shreve: AGIO K3 AGIO +19 265
>Jim_Burlant: DEGOPTT 1H GOTTE. +24 341
#note At least I get this right. My play here is to dive in the bag and look for a positive tile of some sort. The pool is a hair light on vowels, but the unseen tiles still give me an 85% chance of drawing a vowel. I should be in good shape, right?
>Jon_Shreve: AEFS N10 FA.ES +47 312
>Jim_Burlant: DMNNPRV -DMNNPRV +0 341
#note Talk about crappy luck - one turn ago my best play won in excess of 80%. Now, thorugh no fault of my own my best choice here wins 56%. Are you kidding me? To somehow miss all the vowels AND the Z when drawing 5 tiles out of that bag was not even a 10% shot. After looking for any sort of dump - even a 3-tile V dump on row 15 would have worked, I took a step back. With plenty of time in hand, I rechecked the tracking and concluded that my only course of action was to throw all 7 into the bag and hope I had a good draw. Why not keep the N or R? The unseen tiles already have an NR in them. I need as many chances as I can get to land the blank or Z. A sim confirms this is the best play. Keeping anything on this exchange wins at least 3% less often and concedes at least 4 points.
>Jon_Shreve: ?EELNRV 4D LEVERiN. +74 386
#note Thank goodness for me he didn't see his best bingo - OVERLEARN D4 scores 98!
>Jim_Burlant: DEINOTZ O13 TIZ +40 381
#note And I miss what would have been my winning bingo - NOTARIZED in the same spot scores 94. Seeing that I had TIZ waiting for me at O13, it didn't even occur to me to look for the bingo. TIZ still leaves me in excellent shape. I know he's sitting on most of the same garbage I threw back into the bag, so how can I lose?
>Jon_Shreve: DLMNPRV E3 V.ND +16 402
#note Against perfect play, Jon doesn't have a win...
>Jim_Burlant: DEMNO G9 OD.. +18 399
#note ...except I totally suck and I whiffed on every one of my outs. OMENED G2, EMODIN 15D, MONIED/DOMINE 15E... any of them still win. Even DOM 3G scores enough to outrun. Between the fatigue from the previous games and the turn of events here, I was just so stunned he blocked my impending DEMON 2E that I flat-out brain locked. Adding to add insult to injury, I threw gasoline on the fire.
>Jon_Shreve: LMPR C10 R.MP +29 431
>Jim_Burlant: EMN 15G M.NE +6 405
>Jim_Burlant: (L) +2 407
#note A total @#%$-up.
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