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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 David_Pearl David Pearl
>Jim_Burlant: BDEFPTU 8G FUB +16 16
>David_Pearl: AKMO 9G AMOK +27 27
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEEPT J9 .EEP +12 28
#note Disappointed he was able to overlap and didn't float me an R. Apparently I should just look to score with 10I PATE and not look to fish here.
>David_Pearl: DEGRV 11F VERG.D +22 49
>Jim_Burlant: ADEILQT 11D DI...... +28 56
#note I saw this, saw that it vastly outscored anything else and left me one of two probable outcomes on the next turn. I would either exchange the Q, or I'd have an easy QI for 11 whle I preserved an good bingo prone combo. Two plays stand out atop a sim, with nothing else worth considering. This is one of them. The other one sacrifices some score, but it's also a strong choice: LAID 7H scores 17. It turns enough tiles that it just looks like a rack dump, it gives me 4 chances to draw an I for QI, and H15 is a sufficient threat he may have to play there and leave J6 alone for a minimum of 31 on the next turn. At 2500+ 2-ply iterations a sim can't decide whether DIVERGED or LAID is better. If I had this to do again, though, I might play LAID.
>David_Pearl: HIPW 10B WHIP +27 76
>Jim_Burlant: ADEILQT D8 QA.. +24 80
#note It looks obvious now, but I struggled with this turn. I never saw LAID, which limited my choices. It's either LAID or this, and again, in retrospect I should have played LAID.
>David_Pearl: DEHIIOU -5 +0 76
>Jim_Burlant: DEEGILT H11 .IDGE +24 104
#note Not much choice, but I'd like to be in better position than this. This game has been a grind!
>David_Pearl: AERZ B10 .AREZ +34 110
>Jim_Burlant: ELNTTTY 13A N.TTY +16 120
#note At this point I began to worry. These racks weren't coming together and it was one awkward draw after another. Meanwhile, even though he didn't bingo, his exchange yielded positive tiles - not a good sign. After considering plays like PETTY 12J, I revisited the hot spot my QAID play had opened up. Q indicates I had more or less the right idea, though I should play NETTLY for 2 more.
>David_Pearl: ADHJ 7H HADJ +30 140
>Jim_Burlant: ELMNORT 8K OMLET +39 159
>Jim_Burlant: ELMNORT -- -39 120
#note This turn is where the strain of this game and the difficulties of my previous 4 games started to catch up to me. Even though I wasn't playing optimally for parts of those games, it's also fair to say I was being outdrawn in all of them. I had been double-blanked in 5 of my previous 6 games, bingo racks weren't materializing, and the lack of bingoes wasn't being offset by a surplus of premium tiles. When that happens it becomes easy to not recognize options when they force you to play off your ERNT type tiles for scores in the low 20's. In this case, if you don't know POTMEN the only decent play is PETROL 12J, but I wasn't looking for that.. POM 12J didn't appeal (too many back hooks and a consonant heavy ELNRT leave), and I never saw PETROL. 8K OM gives back too many easy hooks down the M column and has the same leave problems as POM. Given all that, I tknew there was a non-bingo version of omelette, and I thought that OMLET* was it. It looked funny for reasons that I couldn't put my finger on, but I didn't see a good choice. This might fly against a lower-rated player intimidated by my inflated 1800's rating. But David's short game is as good as anyone's out there, and he's not the guy to do this against.
>David_Pearl: OX 8K OX +26 166
>Jim_Burlant: ELMNORT 8K ..TER +36 156
#note These were the kind of tough decisions I repeatedly faced all tournament and I never felt like I made the right one on any of them. I considered two obvious plays here: MOL M7 scored 19 and left a juicy ENRT. OTOH, OXTER scored 36 and with 5 A's, 6 E's, and 6 I's unseen, I couldn't turn down that many points given my deficit. A sim says I should have played MOL...but the result also indicates there's a reason I struggled with my decisoin. If MOL scored just 1 more point it would be the clear winner. AT nearly 4000 2-ply iterations a sim says MOL wins 0.15% more often at an equity loss of 0.3 points to this. Pick your poison. 30% to win.
>David_Pearl: LOSW 13J SLOW +25 191
>Jim_Burlant: IILMNOS N1 LIMONIS. +74 230
>Jim_Burlant: IILMNOS -- -74 156
#note At least you could justify the OMLET* phony given my self-inflicted limitations. This was the classic case of the alphabet soup congealing: I confused LIMONITE and SIMONIZE into LIMONISE*. Whoops. Best is MIX L6, which I see on the next turn.
>David_Pearl: NOOT 12L TOON +19 210
>Jim_Burlant: IILMNOS L6 MI. +28 184
#note In case you hadn't figured out, the only bingo in my last rack is MILLIONS, and there's no open L anywhere. This or NIX in the same location is best.
>David_Pearl: ENT 9L TEN +22 232
>Jim_Burlant: ILLNOSY M3 ONLY +21 205
#note Scores 4 more at 14K but I don't want go play at 14K and have him shut the O column down if he can't hit. At that point I'd be trailing by 30 on a practically dead board. I'm fine with this.
>David_Pearl: ??EEEGN O1 EnGiNEE. +71 303
>Jim_Burlant: AEFILRS 15C FILAR.ES +62 267
#note Only bingo. Look at the bright side - at least I didn't give him a hat trick of challenges by playing FAILERS* on row 2! This is just window dressing, though. 9% to win.
>David_Pearl: NOR N1 NOR +14 317
>Jim_Burlant: ABCIIUU O11 U.ICA +21 288
#note With that N he just played off, INCUBI E3 would have been a sweet option. But I knew damned well that after losing two turns on phonies already, AUCUBI* wasn't going to fly. This or UNCIA is best. Either one is as good as the other.
>David_Pearl: AILR E5 LARI +19 336
>Jim_Burlant: ABCEISU D2 CUBE +18 306
#note Best is D1 CAUSE.
>David_Pearl: AIOSTUV 6B VIS. +24 360
>Jim_Burlant: AIS 2B AS.I +12 318
>Jim_Burlant: (AOTU) +8 326
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