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#player1 Asif_Ali Asif Ali
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Asif_Ali: ?BOTZ 8H BOrTZ +50 50
>Jim_Burlant: AIPRSSU K5 UPS.AIRS +90 90
#note Seeing this as my opening rack, I figured this was going to be another runaway for me given the extraordinarily good luck I had for him to float me the T I needed. Little did I know. This is my only bingo.
>Asif_Ali: ?AEHMTT 10E THEMAT.c +72 122
#note Nice find! But a couple of turns later, you'll see why I wish he had found his best bingo of HEMoSTAT 12G for 4 more..
>Jim_Burlant: DELLNOT H10 .OLTED +30 120
#note Best, but I'm at a slight deficit: 41% to win. MOLTEN, for reference, scores 3 fewer points and keeps DL instead of DN. That choice wins 1-1/2% less often at an equity deficit of roughly 3 points.
>Asif_Ali: FKR 14G K.RF +19 141
>Jim_Burlant: ACEILNQ 11D QI +26 146
#note If you want a position that illustrates why the Q is such a negative tile, this is it. So often, you have to play off your bingo-building tiles to unload the Q (and mess up your rack in the process), and you will have to sacrifice board position. This will score 26 and almost certainly give up even more but between the points (26 for this as opposed to 20 for the much safer QAID 15E) and leave (ACELN vs. CELN with QAID), I felt I had no choice. A sim agrees...but I'm not sure about this in retrospect.
>Asif_Ali: BEEH L12 HEBE +30 171
>Jim_Burlant: AAACELN M12 ALA +20 166
#note I seriously considered CALLA 12E just to make sure he couldn't hit me with cheap points at 12D...but couldn't see scoring only 12 when I trailed by 25. I missed on this turn because I never saw CANAL M11. I saw this, saw the opportunity to open a line (CANAL shuts down the right side of the board, which doesn't leave me much to work with if he takes out 12D as I expect him to, and left it at that. If I wanted to play short here, ANA may have been a touch better. CANAL and ANA are virtually indistinguishable atop a sim. While ACEN with ALA is a slightly stronger leave than ACEL, ANA would have been a touch better for 2 reasons. First, it plays the tile pool better (5 N's and only 2 L's unseen). Also, ANA doesn't take as many back hooks as ALA, which makes ANA that much safer.
>Asif_Ali: INV 12C VIN +37 208
>Jim_Burlant: ACEGNNR 7G NAG +16 182
#note If I'd played ANA I'd be sitting on a no-go GLANCER. Instead I'm looking for the O or I that aren't there. None of my options are particularly strong here. I looked for row 15 plays back hooking ALA but couldn't think of GENRE, which left C12 VANG (which I didn't like), or this. If you miss GENRE, this is as good as anything else.
>Asif_Ali: ADELRSU N6 LAUDERS +69 277
>Asif_Ali: ADELRSU -- -69 208
>Jim_Burlant: CEJLNRW 6F JEW +39 221
#note Now that I knew his rack, I could finally turn the tables and even the game back up. Had he hit the correct bingo, the 39 for JEW/SHAW would have still scored well, but I'd be down a full bingo and in serious trouble. This mistake on his end swung the game in my favor. Obviously my play is to make sure he can't bingo, and now I'll make him puzzle over what to do with that s on this board. This is best and it wins 40%.
>Asif_Ali: ADELRSU N13 LAD +21 229
>Jim_Burlant: CILNORU O14 LO +21 242
#note Knowing that he's still got ERSU, I don't care what I leave myself - the first order of business is neutralizing the S hook at 13O. Against his rack fragment of ERSU, this is by far and away my best play.
>Asif_Ali: EMRSU J4 EMU +17 246
>Jim_Burlant: CCIINRV 15D VIRI. +19 261
#note Not ideal, but 4G VICE only scored 10 and RICIN L1 (Quackle's preference) looks absolutely nuts. Maybe CIVIE 4F if I had this turn to do again. A sim says this or CIVIE are equally strong. Treading water at 40% to win.
>Asif_Ali: OORS 13H .OO +12 258
>Jim_Burlant: CCENNOU 4G CON. +7 268
#note No, Quackle, not ENOUNCE with 3 R's unseen and RS in his rack. Be serious! The pool looks awfully bingo prone and I want to leave it up to him to figure out what to do. Looking at the options this is the only play I have that doesn't open up the world . If he does front hook CONE with his S, it opens up a bunch of stuff for me. Despite quackle's opinion of this, I'm fine with this given the situation.
>Asif_Ali: AW F12 AW +12 270
#note These letters score 23 at 9F.
>Jim_Burlant: ACDEENU L2 CUED +20 288
#note No choice unfortunately. Too much gained on the scoreboard relative to the other choices.
>Asif_Ali: RS 15D .....S +13 283
>Asif_Ali: RS -- -13 270
#note It's MIRID that takes the back S. More breathing room for me - thank goodness.
>Jim_Burlant: AEGINNN 11G N.G +9 297
#note Equity is not the concern here - the tactic is to add a handful of points without giving him anywhere useful to play. Maybe 9F EN for 2 more, but I'm finally starting to inch away.
>Asif_Ali: ARS C12 .AR +12 282
>Jim_Burlant: AEEINNX 3H NE +8 305
#note WTF am I doing? I should not be opening a line where he can bingo and I don't have the rack to come back. I was right to pass on the first two static options (EXEC 2I, ENCINA 2J). But I need to recognize that, in possession of the case A, I can play NE or NEE B13 and not open any real danger. NE or NEE B13 if I had this to do again.
>Asif_Ali: IORT 2F RIOT +12 294
>Jim_Burlant: ADEINOX 1E DEX +22 327
#note Not worried about building the rack - I'm more worried about his coming back with GRIOT plays. I'm 67% to win now.
>Asif_Ali: FS 13B F.S +18 312
>Jim_Burlant: AEIINOR 14A OA. +16 343
#note So defense oriented I whiffed on the play I never looked for: REINDEX 1A will salt this away in a second. That said - this still wins 85%.
>Asif_Ali: EGIPSTY A14 .Y +15 327
>Jim_Burlant: EEIINRY 3B EYRIE +19 362
#note A sigh of relief. With no D, G, or L he can play through, I knew this is safe. I was still blind to REINDEX for 48, but this is better given that this sets me up to go out in 2.
#note I don't have hist last play written but it was a puzzling fish for 6 points. I go out with UNI 3L for 6. Also - due to a math error I had short changed myself by a handful of points. Final score recorded as 365 - 333 my win.
#rack1 EGIPSTU
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