| Player 1 |
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#player1 JD JD
#player2 Evans_Clinchy Evans Clinchy
>JD: IRTUUUV -IUUUV +0 0
#note I don't usually think of IRT as being better than RT, but it wins the sim by 2 points. What's interesting is that the sim is even if I assume that Evans is passing next turn, so the improvement from keeping the I depends at least partially on being able to play more 8s.
>Evans_Clinchy: EEELSTW 8F EWE +12 12
#note Close call between this and WEETE for 12 points more. I simmed this with a few different inferences of 2-tile leaves he might be keeping; EWE comes out a little ahead. It limits both his scoring and his bingoing better.
>JD: BEIORTT 7F BOT +18 18
>Evans_Clinchy: EEILOST I7 ESTOILE +74 86
#note Tons of spots to play ETOILES or ESTOILE; this looks like the right one. Sim says it offers him the least counterplay.
>JD: EIRSTTX J9 EX +52 70
#note ooh, I didn't know EWEST!
>Evans_Clinchy: DEEGIOO H11 GEOID +32 118
#note GOODIE K9 keeps a much better leave, but it seemed kinda insane to open a bunch of hooks I don't have. Sim agrees.
>JD: BIORSTT K6 BITTORS +81 151
>JD: CIIRRSU (challenge) +5 156
>Evans_Clinchy: AAEOORT 6F ORA +21 139
>JD: CIIRRSU H1 SURIC... +33 189
#note I was pretty happy with finding this!
>Evans_Clinchy: ACEOSTT 15A COSTATE. +86 225
>Evans_Clinchy: AAADILN (challenge) +5 230
>JD: EFIORUZ 3G F.OUZIER +100 289
>JD: AGGMNPY (challenge) +5 294
#note whoa
>Evans_Clinchy: AAADILN 4J NADA +31 261
>JD: AGGMNPY C11 GYMP. +26 320
>Evans_Clinchy: AIJLQRV E11 AJIV. +30 291
#note Last turn, I was down by 64 and desperately trying to bingo; now, I've drawn JQRV and I've got to pivot to outscoring mode. AJIVA looks best here, as it sets up a good spot to play QI on a board that's currently lacking one.
>JD: AAEGINN 1H .EANING +9 329
#note I have no idea if this is a reasonable play or not. I'm only up 29 so I can't really afford to be sacrificing points, but I am cutting Evans' bingo percentage from 20% down to 5% or so. Maybe the big takeaway is that the pool is actually very clunky, so even though I'm tempted to reach for the blanks, it may be better to make some kind of counter-fish on my end (NA at F11? ANA at L6?). If I infer that Evans has a blank, then SEANING has an even bigger impact, dropping bingo % from 50% to 20%.
>Evans_Clinchy: DEHLQRR L12 HERD +30 321
#note I was silently chuckling to myself at Jesse's fixation with blocking bingos while I'm sitting here with DEHLQRR. (Not saying he's wrong; it's just funny, that's all.)
>JD: AAILNNN M9 ANNAL +22 351
>Evans_Clinchy: DELOQRU 5C QUOD +35 356
>JD: AEHIKNP D4 P.NKAH +32 383
#note this is a hard pre-endgame! I thought I was in good shape with my last play because it blocks bingos most effectively, but I leave myself susceptible to losing to an out-in-two. the alternative is ignoring the opening and playing KIDNAP. I think keeping EI is a little better than keeping EH here because the pool includes lots of pointy consonants.
>Evans_Clinchy: EFLRUVY N6 FERLY +42 398
#note JD: this isn't supposed to win any endgames because it sets up big NYM plays for me. Technically he can only win by playing ULVA first and trying to draw a blank for a guaranteed big out. I was looking more at the O4-O8 spot and never spotted NYM...
EC: Yeah, I'm a dummy, I never thought of NYM. I thought I was actually in pretty good shape here with a leave of UV - I could get the L for ULVA, the E for UVEA, the M for VUM, the blanks obviously. Didn't have time to calculate this for sure, but it felt like FERLY might be a 5/8 shot to win. Turns out it was 0/8! Sad face.
>JD: ??EIIMW C8 ME +15 398
#note JD: this looks terrible but wasn't as far off as it looks - under time pressure I only spotted ULVA and not LUV. Therefore I was blocking and saving WIDGIE at bottom-right. Evans pointed out after the game that I can tie by ignoring ULVA and playing WAMES at O5, but I can only win if I spot NYM and play a 6 down (MEWING or MOWDIE). Oh well!
EC: well that was fortunate
>Evans_Clinchy: LUV N13 LUV +15 413
>Evans_Clinchy: (IIW??) +12 425 |
