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#player1 Jack Jack
#player2 Jerry_Lerman Jerry Lerman
>Jack: AAIRSUW 8F AWA +12 12
#note Playing WAUR in any position is better than this AWA, as is exchanging and keeping ARS, accd to the 3 ply 1589 itr sim. I considered WAUR but thought the balanced leave would fair better than AIS. Maybe if it was INSU. But the sim is not even that close. WAUR 8G is ~+1.5%
>Jerry_Lerman: AELL 9F LEAL +16 16
>Jack: ?DHIRSU J3 HURDIeS +69 81
>Jack: ?DHIRSU -- -69 12
#note Okay, I should have been 100% sure leal didn't take an S, but I... wasn't. No bingoes play here, so HID is the play by 1.2% over DU(AL).
>Jerry_Lerman: EEFL 10E FEEL +23 39
>Jack: ?DHIRSU E10 .UD +14 26
>Jerry_Lerman: BHRU 7C BUHR +16 55
>Jack: ?HIRSVY 11H SHIVeRY +84 110
>Jerry_Lerman: ILNO 8A LOIN +22 77
>Jack: DEINSTT 13C DISTENT +78 188
>Jerry_Lerman: DIOP N10 P.OID +34 111
>Jack: AEIMNOU O5 ANOMIE +28 216
#note 2038 itr 3ply, sims at 88.58% and next best is MOUE 87.99%.
>Jerry_Lerman: GJ J10 J.G +27 138
>Jack: AABEMOU N2 ABOMA +30 246
#note Sims a teentsy bit above AMEBA in the same spot, but it's pretty much a wash. I would rather not put an E in row 4, though. ABOMA N4 is close, too.
>Jerry_Lerman: ASXZ L8 ZAX.S +60 198
>Jack: EEEERTU O1 TEE +15 261
#note E(L)UTE A7 is winning the sim and, yes, that makes sense. I guess TEE is better at O13 too. I hoped to take away row 2, but even if he hits a bingo there, it'll be like 62 and I should have a nice response, so it'd be better to play O13 since plays can easily score 30-40. PYOID doesn't take an S so I don't have to worry about that lane.
>Jerry_Lerman: DEV O13 DEV +27 225
>Jack: EEIOORU A8 .OUIE +6 267
#note Is this a situation where you hold on to the U in case you draw the Q? Sim gives an adamant no with LOUIE simming 4+% over LOOIE. I wouldn't have guessed that. Ohhh that does makes sense because of O(BE) at 3M and O(DE) at 14M.
>Jerry_Lerman: CU 8J CU. +14 239
>Jack: EIKORRW M13 KOI +34 301
#note Thanks Louie! I laid down KOR first but exchanged it for KOI because of the lane it creates. He's not necessarily going to need a bingo to catch up, but it seems risky to put an R in row 15. He also just played DEV and then CU(Z) creating a lane and like... why is KOR winning the sim by 4% over KOI?!? Even if I infer a blank this is the case. I don't feel skilled enough to disagree with Q when the sim results are this wide, but... I kinda disagree!!
>Jerry_Lerman: IPT E4 PIT. +18 257
>Jack: ERRRRSW 5D W.RER +8 309
#note Maybe that's why, heh. CP likes W(I)RERS by a lot. I did think about it to block the J column but it's also the last S. exch RRRR and exch RRRW are a distant second. W(I)RER is also -3%. hmm. Bingoes to the C will only be like 70 at the most and i should be able to respond pretty well. I really like WIRER better but... noted.
>Jerry_Lerman: Q 15L Q. +21 278
>Jack: AENORRS M2 SONAR +33 342
#note CP likes O(P)ERAS 93%, SONAR 89%, SOA(P)ER 89%, O(P)ERA 88.64%.
>Jerry_Lerman: T D13 .T +2 280
#note Burning the last S on the last play, I figured something like this would come down. But what I didn't think through was how unblockable it would be, which, yeah, is something I should definitely think through. In this case, it's not that hard to blcok with plays at 14A or H13 for example. So that's probably why SONAR and O(P)ERAS were fine.
>Jack: AEFGGOR 14A GRO. +13 355
#note All I saw was CYsTEIN/CYsTINE, and those are the only two 7s that bingo. But Q doesn't like GRO(T) anyways because even if the N is, in fact, the last letter in the bag, Jerry would still have sYNECTI(C), which i did not see or know! yikes. Him being Jerry, he'd probably find it. But, it's probably still good to block CYsTEIN and hope he misses sYNECTI(C).
>Jerry_Lerman: ?EINNTY H1 sENT.Y +27 307
>Jack: ACEFG 1D FACE. +13 368
#note CA(P)E 4C
>Jerry_Lerman: IN D1 .IN +6 313
>Jerry_Lerman: (G) +4 317
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