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#player1 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
#player2 Rob_Robinsky Rob Robinsky
>Dave_Koenig: EEINNOS 8H ONE +6 6
#note Tournament situation: Dave enters this game at 14-5, +932, while I am at 13-6, +622. This means that I need to win the game by 156 in order to pass him for second place. I have thus given Dave a 155 cushion for the sake of simming my chances to win the tournament, rather than simply the game.
As for this rack - exchanging E performs surprisingly well.
>Rob_Robinsky: ?ENOORT K5 NETROOt +78 78
#note While I have to be concerned about Dave's fishing play to open, this is about the best start I could realistically hope for.
>Dave_Koenig: EEINOPS L9 PEONIES +77 83
#note Dave initially put 5E PENSIONE on the board, and then changed his play to the more aggressive L9 PEONIES. This is an interesting decision - the increased volatility increases the variance of the game outcome. I think, all things considered, PEONIES gives Dave more ability to return serve should I have a strong draw immediately, but it's tough to tell. Dave did mention having a bit of uncertainty about the hooks on PENSIONE (D, R, S), so I assume his decision was meant to ensure that he avoided any situations where he unexpectedly lost control of the game.
>Rob_Robinsky: ?CCEELT 13F ECLECT.c +80 158
#note Unfortunately for Dave, his more aggressive play gives me the letter I need to bingo with the second blank. On an aside, this is my first three-C bingo ever!
>Dave_Koenig: DFKLRUW 15H LURK. +27 110
#note Quackle slightly prefers J6 FUEL, but given Dave's difficult leave on any play he makes here I think it's a smart decision to block the S off. Dave is still estimated at 88% to retain second place.
>Rob_Robinsky: EEGIJNR G2 JEERING +73 231
#note Unbelievably lucky series of racks for me to start. Dave's choice to block the S lowered my score by 25 - JEERINGS sure would've been nice! Quackle estimates my chances to come in second at 21%.
>Dave_Koenig: DFILTUW J6 WI.LD +49 159
#note Best. With only 34 points of cushion left at this point, Dave needs to score as much as possible.
>Rob_Robinsky: DEIISTZ F10 ZIT. +33 264
#note This is the first of a number of interesting choices on my end. After Dave's play, I need to make up 83 points to catch him in the tournament. I have a bingo-prone leave, but need to be aware of the possibility that one bingo won't be enough if Dave starts hitting hotspots for 40+ points. ZITE blocks the JEERINGS hook, but because there are favorable lines on rows 3-5 I think it is worth it to take out F14.
>Dave_Koenig: ABFITUY 3F B.AUTIFY +84 243
#note This is decidedly not what I needed to have happen here. Dave is back up to almost 98% to keep in second place.
>Rob_Robinsky: DEGIORS H1 GO.D +38 302
>Dave_Koenig: AFMOPRS 2K POMS +32 275
#note Dave's play wasn't generated by Quackle's static generator, but it performs pretty well in the sim - it really does give nothing back, and takes away a potentially lucrative bingo line. I think POMS has a hidden vulnerability, though - Dave knows that I will be probably playing very aggressively to try to build up spread, so the S is probably going to be worth quite a bit more than usual. Quackle prefers F3 BRAP, to eliminate the Q/X bomb possibility, though of course that analysis is based on the 155 point initial cushion. Attempting to win the game favors 12A FORMAT.
>Rob_Robinsky: AEINRSY 11B YERS.NIA +72 374
#note A fortunate draw...in CSW, at least! Even after BEAUTIFY, I still have a chance to pass Dave in spread.
>Dave_Koenig: AAFHLOR 10A AFRO +35 310
#note This sims a fair amount behind F3 BLAH. Dave is electing to defend against bingos, but with only 56 points of spread cushion remaining and an incompletely closed board, I think I agree with Quackle about removing the 6F hotspot.
>Rob_Robinsky: AAINQSU N10 QUASI +80 454
>Rob_Robinsky: AEGNOWX (challenge) +5 459
#note This is a really interesting position. Quackle assesses my chances of passing Dave for second at 10% higher after QUASI than after QI, but in retrospect I think QUASI was a mistake. Though there's a significant risk of losing momentum with a poor draw after QI, I think I need to cash in the F6 hotspot here for a couple of reasons. First, my chances of catching Dave go down significantly after QUASI if he hits the X himself. Second, the S hook on ECLECTIC is deceptively difficult for Dave to block, and it is possible that he will discount the possibility of the hook being acceptable. Third, even though QUASI draws me just about to the spread threshold I need, it creates a race to draw an I for column O that I am not favored to win. I am badly outdrawing Dave here, but even so I am leaving too much to chance here.
>Dave_Koenig: AHHLTUV F3 .LAH +36 346
#note Dave mentioned that he hadn't considered HALVA over the board, but it actually sims behind both BLAH and UH as well as VALUTA. I think I favor UH over anything else - the leave on BLAH is very prone to being hamstrung for the pre-endgame, even more so than after UH. VALUTA is interesting, and the HH leave may provide scoring potential as Dave tries to keep the spread below 156, but it creates a situation where second place in the tournament largely rests on the race to the X and a secondary race to the next I. That's a really unpalatable situation to voluntarily create.
>Rob_Robinsky: AEGNOWX E5 WAX +44 503
#note Of course I drew the X. Dave really can't catch a break this game. This play pushes me just past the 155 point threshold I need.
>Dave_Koenig: ADHRTUV A7 URV. +21 367
#note URVA removes the awful UV combination from Dave's rack, and going into this pre-endgame there's a lot to be said for that. It does create another marginal bingo lane on the board, which is a concern - though Dave also gives himself the best leave available. Quackle favors C9 URETHRA, despite retaining the V.
>Rob_Robinsky: AEGIINO 12D AI. +14 517
#note Drawing both I's at once have made me a strong favorite to win by the necessary 156 point margin. Despite the unseen A's, this is a significantly weaker fish than 9C IO. AEGIN is a very, very strong leave here, more than I realized.
>Dave_Koenig: ADEHTTV O11 HA +14 381
#note Dave's in a really difficult position here for the tournament position, never mind for the game. I've telegraphed that I have the case I in hand, so with that inference made HA is clearly the best chance he has to hold on to second.
>Rob_Robinsky: DEEGINO I2 G.E +20 537
#note This appears to be the best play, at least that I have found thus far. It only loses second place to a V draw, as Dave then has several sequences that hold on by a few spread points.
>Dave_Koenig: BDEMTTV 7C VE. +17 398
#note Quackle's best sequence is WEMB first, though I can stick Dave with the V by playing NOX. ZED followed by ABIDE still gives Dave the best possible spread.
>Rob_Robinsky: ADEINO 13A NIED +15 552
#note My best play is L5 ON to block WEMB.
>Dave_Koenig: BDMTT 6J ..MB +11 409
>Rob_Robinsky: AO 10F .OA +16 568
#note I needed at least a dozen things to go just right in this game in order to take second place at the California Open, especially given that Dave played a strong game with really difficult racks.
>Rob_Robinsky: (DTT) +8 576
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