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#player1 Nick_Ball Nick Ball
#player2 David_Koenig David Koenig
>Nick_Ball: FGI 8G FIG +14 14
>David_Koenig: IINRTTY 9A TRINITY +77 77
>Nick_Ball: EIK A7 KI.E +24 38
>David_Koenig: ?AEEPRU 7H PUgAREE +68 145
>David_Koenig: CDORSWZ (challenge) +5 150
#note I preferred this play over the slightly higher scoring PARVENUE and UNREAPED on column D, because they both have defensive shortcomings. One leaves the big hook at 12D and the other opens up the triple-triple. Then he challenged PUGAREE, making it clearly the better option.
>Nick_Ball: ADEGLOR C8 D.ALOGER +70 108
>David_Koenig: CDORSWZ 15A WO.D +30 180
#note Despite Quackle's static evaluator not even suggesting this move, in a two-ply sim it outperforms everything else except for SCROW O7, which is favored by about 6 points of equity. Although the leave is consonant heavy, this play sets up the 14B spot for the Z while holding COZ 12B and CZAR K5 with lots of other chances for big Z plays at N6 or on the O column if I can draw some vowels. Why does SCROW do even better? Because it sets up an even deadlier Z spot at N10.
>Nick_Ball: ABERTT E5 BATT.ER +36 144
>David_Koenig: CEEORSZ 14B Z.E +49 229
>Nick_Ball: ?DEMOSW O1 MEaDOWS +101 245
>David_Koenig: ACEOORS J4 CAR.OOSE +71 300
#note Very happy that I found this play, as it was through the blank G and partially obscured by the FIG/O hook.
>Nick_Ball: AX F5 AX +54 299
>David_Koenig: BFINOSU D2 BUFOS +35 335
#note FUB K11 is a decent option as well, but the S is not that valuable, because CARGOOSES* is not good, only CARGEESE. Furthermore, there is also value in using the D column scoring spot before he does. Given that the board shape is starting to get a bit tricky to bingo on, playing for maximum turnover and scoring made the most sense to me.
>Nick_Ball: HU D12 HU.. +29 328
>David_Koenig: AILNOSU N1 UNAI +20 355
#note INOCULA for the same score is also a good option, but there are a couple of reasons why I chose UNAI over it. One is the exposure of the H1 triple word score. The other is that vowels are getting a bit scarce. (Only 12 of the unseen 32 tiles.) Furthermore, there is only one O unseen while there are plenty of A's and I's. That makes keeping an O more valuable.
>Nick_Ball: INOQ 3C Q.INO +30 358
>David_Koenig: ELMNOST 1H LOMENT.. +39 394
#note This was clearly the best play before Nick made his play, but his play gave me some other good options hooking QUINOL including MELT/MOLT/MELON H1. Considering the value of the extra turnover here, the number of duplicate E's and N's still remaining, the overall vowel-consonant balance, and the partial blocking of the L column, there is a case to be made that my play is preferable. However, this was not a conscious choice on my part. I simply rushed my play without thinking about the extra options.
>Nick_Ball: EIR 15A ....IER +11 369
>David_Koenig: DIINSTY K9 YID +27 421
#note I did not think about the significantly higher scoring TIDY 2G, which is the equity play. However, given the game situation, my play is probably preferable from a winning percentage point of view for cutting down bingo lanes.
>Nick_Ball: JL G2 J.L +10 379
>David_Koenig: INPSTVV M6 V.T +6 427
#note Quackle thinks that my play is one of two that guarantee a win 100% of the time, but it is wrong. My play is the only one that always wins, but it is for a subtle reason. It is worth understanding why. With the unseen tile pool, I saw the possible bingos GANACHE, ANELACE, and ELEGANCE down from one of the E's in PUGAREES. I did not see LANGAHA, but it does not play. GANACHE does not play either, so I only have to worry about ANELACE and ELEGANCE. As long as I do not empty the bag, ANELACE will not beat me, because I will have high scoring plays hooking an S at N14. Therefore I played to block ELEGANCE with VET. The reason Quackle thinks VAV 5I also wins it that if he hits ELEGANCE, I am guaranteed to l have either PASTINA or HATPINS as my final rack. Quackle's analysis is only considering the high scoring placement of ELEGANCE at N7, which will always allow me to bingo back from 14F. However, if he plays ELEGANCE at M7, then I will not win with the PASTINA rack, due to his high scoring out play of dropping the H at 9I. The problem is that when Quackle does simulations of alternative moves, it only picks the follow-up plays based on static evaluation. So if we already play VAV and then ask Quackle to analyze what to do for him from a rack ACEEGLN, it will figure out the right spot to play ELEGANCE. But when it is running a simulation on the VAV vs. VET play, it will only look at the higher scoring spot for ELEGANCE.
>Nick_Ball: A N6 A. +15 394
>David_Koenig: AEINPSV 14F PAV +26 453
>Nick_Ball: ACEGHLN K3 CHA +27 421
>David_Koenig: EINS I11 SINE +18 471
>David_Koenig: (EGLN) +10 481
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