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#player1 Akshay Bhandarkar Akshay
#player2 Peter Moses Peter
#title WESPAC 2017, Final Round 5
#description WESPAC 2017, Final Round 5
>Akshay: EKMOQST -KMOQ +0 0
#note x2 is likely better.
>Peter: ?ABCENO 8D BACONEd +76 76
>Peter: ?ABCENO -- -76 0
#note Not sure what's best, but probably COwBANE.
>Akshay: EJORSTT 8D JOTTERS +94 94
>Peter: ?ABCENO F2 BACONE.s +69 69
>Peter: ?ABCENO -- -69 0
#note COENOBiA is best.
>Akshay: ABDSSVY J6 BA.SY +24 118
#note OBVS or SAVOY are best, but this position is complicated by the fact that Peter is obviously missing COENOBiA and even CABEzONE. He might be hoping Peter misses everything here but that seems unlikely, and might even be giving BROmANCE more options. I'd just take SAVOY, but I guess I understand the reasoning.
>Peter: ?ABCENO H2 BEACON.d +62 62
>Peter: DEEIILU (challenge) +5 67
#note COENOBiA is still best.
>Akshay: DDEHISV D8 .IVED +32 150
#note Or HIVED.
>Peter: DEEIILU E11 LIEU +15 82
#note This was actually really encouraging to see, as maybe Peter might be recognizing that being too obsessed with lanes and defense isn't working too well. Totally agree.
>Akshay: DEHLSWZ 6E DZH. +37 187
#note Definitely WUZ. Despite your second to case S, this spot has to go, especially since you could be against some monsters. I guess I'm also okay with WELSHED provided that you're aware that the T in JOTTERS has to go soon to kill the top left.
>Peter: DEEEILL F11 LEE +12 94
#note HETE and EEL both look better, although if someone had told Peter that Akshay had been missing a lot of parallels and options that this creates, it might be a fine metagame exploit.
>Akshay: EELSUWW 4G W.WE +10 197
>Peter: DEILMOP K5 POM +22 116
#note COMPLIED (better) or COMPILED are both tough finds, but clearly best.
>Akshay: ELNOSTU 10B LU. +8 205
#note Probably NU. You really are going into board blocking mode, and can even consider LOTUS if you suspect an S a lot, but aggression is also fine. NU blocks scoring plays scores more, and is just much better than LUV.
>Peter: DEEILRS L4 RESILED +82 198
#note I like that Peter chose this over 15c to preserve entropy, as well as setup options on the right and the difficult-to-block S hook in row 15. Nice play!
>Akshay: EINORST M7 NORITES +83 288
#note This seems obvious but actually has some real problems, as that LIEUs hook can and the K can now be a real problem, as well as column k, all of which increase entropy even over the long haul. I'm fine with it but you can consider other options such as TERSION.
>Peter: AEGIPRY C9 P.Y +25 223
#note YAP and YAGI at n8 both seem much better, as that S hook is a blessing and acts as a ghost tile. You need the blank to win anyway, and this is both a great scoring and bingo lane that is difficult for your opponent to block.
>Akshay: HIIOOTV E2 OVOI. +18 306
#note I don't mind this as a potential fake X setup, but that's what you're really doing here, and I'm not sure if Akshay realized it. This only makes sense because of your opponent's last play, and you need to feel pretty confident Peter doesn't have it, and while it seems unlikely after PUY I'm not sure if it's impossible. Regardless, I do like this, but only if you're faking the X setup. If that's not what you're trying to do and you don't think Peter will sacrifice points to block (he should) then I'd just go with VIDIOT. This can also become a huge problem if Peter bingos next turn, as that X setup becomes a liability. There are also better racks to do this with and if you do this all the time it's available, Peter can start ignoring it and all of a sudden, you've caused yourself a real problem. Judging by history I think it's likely Akshay didn't think about this as a fake setup and this was just a play to clear his rack, but if so I prefer VIDIOT.
>Peter: ?AEGIIR F6 .I. +12 235
#note Again, we're stuck in the same look as last turn, as Peter has to figure out whether or not this is an X setup. By all rights, it certainly should be most of the time, but does Peter think Akshay is on that level? And does Peter think that Akshay realizes that PUY means no X and is exploiting that? Or is Peter even realizing at all that OVOID is an X setup, or think that Akshay thinks that OVOID is an X setup? It's pretty complicated. In a game theory optimal world, the X has to be blocked, but it really depends on what Peter thinks about Akshay, because this position is dire. Worse yet, Akshay can often just make another setup, which forces yet another uncomfortable scenario. On the other hand, Peter can just ignore this and take GI n10 and setup an S, while also protecting column n, and that's another reasonable line, but only if he thinks Akshay is not playing optimally. This is pretty clearly better than ZIT as well. Again, this really depends on your belief of Akshay's range, and what he is and isn't capable of.
>Akshay: HIKNRTT 8L ..TH +21 327
#note I guess you're continuing the story of "I have the X and I'm in a really good spot and he has to block still and I can play RUKH next turn" but it's just not worth it at some point: it's too likely Peter's just not gonna block and sacrifice a ton when he's already in a desparate situation, or that this X setup metagame just isn't really going on in Peter's head. I actually don't think this X metagame is happening at all here, but if that's the case, then RUKH is just a miss.
>Peter: ?AAEGIR 2G A.EARInG +74 309
#note Nice job playing this over BIGARAdE, which is clearly worse.
>Akshay: AAIKNRT 14D A.K +35 362
#note Missed TANUKI.
>Peter: ADFGGQU 1L QUAG +97 406
#note A lot of people will say this is lucky, and it certainly isn't, but I assure you that all top experts thought about this possibility last turn.
>Akshay: AFINNRT 15A FAIN +27 389
#note FIRN l12 is much better. You need some potential as this has gone downhill quickly, and that has much better bingo potential as well as potential against ugly racks. After this play, Peter can just block the H/E/S in the bottom right quadrant and the game is pretty much over.
>Peter: ADEFGMO N10 DEFOAM +50 456
#note Nice overlap! DEFOG is better as it always outruns with a more balanced AM leave without giving up long shots such as ACONITUM.
>Akshay: CNNNRTU O13 CRU +34 423
>Peter: AGIORTX D4 OX +31 487
>Akshay: NNNT 5K ..NT +6 429
>Peter: AGIRT C1 TRIG +14 501
>Akshay: NN J1 N.N. +4 433
>Akshay: (A) +2 435
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