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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Jesse_Matthews Jesse Matthews
>Joshua_Sokol: AFGHINO H7 FOH +18 18
#note I wanted to play FAGIN or GONIF here, but I got swept into the nevending vortex of idiocy that is keeping the G on my rack. GONIF even beats FOH in a sim by .5 points.
At some point I'm going to stop calling you out, Chiquito
>Jesse_Matthews: AOP I7 APO +23 23
>Joshua_Sokol: AGIILMN G9 MAILING +75 93
#note incredibly lucky to have drawn into a bingo with such a horrendous leave.
>Jesse_Matthews: ACGRY 15D CRA.GY +48 71
>Joshua_Sokol: EFLOSTV F10 FOE +31 124
#note Fishing or playing long with C10 VOLTES/SCRAGGY are both tempting options, but I was far more comfortable protecting my lead and blocking some lanes. Jesse might not even have an S for S(CRAGGY). Turns out I blocked something big.
>Jesse_Matthews: CEINS J5 CINES +29 100
>Joshua_Sokol: DGLLSTV -DGLLV +0 124
#note My play seemingly didn't work out, though, and I am forced to allow Jesse to equalize the game
>Jesse_Matthews: AEK E11 KEA +31 131
>Joshua_Sokol: AILLRST D12 TAL. +22 146
#note Blocking the S hook on SCRAGGY, but setting up a less-valuable one with S(TEEL)
>Jesse_Matthews: DIMU 5H MU.ID +20 151
>Joshua_Sokol: AEIPRST 4B TRAIPSE +75 221
#note TRAIPSE gives back better floaters, I should play PIASTRE in the same spot.
>Jesse_Matthews: AEGV 4K GAVE +25 176
>Joshua_Sokol: ?ANORTU 14I OUTRANg +71 292
#note Jesse pointed out that I should have made the blank a K instead of a G. Many more bingos play and end in G, many more triple-triples fit through a G, and it's a little bit harder to play through the G and score well than it is for a K. Absolutely a mistake on my part.
>Jesse_Matthews: ?AEOQTU C2 tO.QUATE +86 262
#note Very nice find
>Joshua_Sokol: DDENNOT B9 DONNED +23 315
#note Isn't great, but blocks bingos, creates scoring spots which are good for maintaining my lead, and this scores decently well. DO(T)TED is 27 at 8A, but the leave is nominally worse and it leaves the D hanging out there-- I'll stop the sentence now
>Jesse_Matthews: ILLY O1 YILL +34 296
>Joshua_Sokol: DIJORTT A8 JOT +36 351
>Jesse_Matthews: ERU M1 ERU. +14 310
>Joshua_Sokol: BDIRTWX 2C .WIXT +30 381
#note Things start getting a little weird here. He just opened two lanes up, one of them becoming the most dangerous on the board, so my instinct was to address it with 2C (t)WIXT, and drawing one of the 4 remaining E's for BE(TWIXT) next turn was a plus, so this seemed automatic over the other 30-point TWIXT at K10. However, there are a few things I didn't take into account here. If Jesse hits a bingo, he is more likely to be able to outscore me in the endgame after I have opened a big spot on row 1. Furthermore, he too might have BETWIXT as a snapback, he likely has one or two E's on his rack after ERUV. But if he scores this turn, I can block more of the board, so that seems fine with me to give up some spread for winning purposes. Otherwise, I'm worried about big Z plays, but he most likely doesn't have the Z at this point, so BR(A)W M12 is not the right play here, despite leaving me with a vowel and potentially killer plays with the X. I think I still like my play though. I really do want to get rid of the variance associate with the E he just threw out there.
>Jesse_Matthews: EO A14 OE +9 319
#note whoa
>Joshua_Sokol: BDINRSW O10 WRIN.S +27 408
#note He has to have EEIRS here, right? EEERS was also possible. I'm most worried about him having drawn BZ to EEIRS, in which case he has ZI(G)S threatening E1 BEER, which seems worrisome. But I completely, completely missed that Jesse has BREEZ(E) for 81 if he has drawn the Z, and it's a 2/5 chance. If he has the killer BERIZES rack BREEZ(E) threatens (Q)IS at 5C, which will beat even BE(tWIXT) in the endgame. But actually, if BERIZES is indeed his rack, BREEZ(E) loses by one to my counter of E2 (I)V(I)ED! So if he has BREEZE, WRINGS still wins.
What I need to worry about is Jesse drawing HV. In that case he has SHIVERE(R) at L7 to go out and win. If he draws BV, he has BREVIE(R)S to go out and win. I didn't see either of those options when weighing on whether or not I should block the R.
BREEZ(E) is much more dangerous than ZI(g)S is, so I should probably play W(A)B or W(A)D at M13 to block the bingos, but those don't seem to outrun BREEZE.
But what if I don't draw the last vowel? Essentially, I should have easily worked out that I could win in the endgame if I drew a vowel and he didn't draw into an out-bingo, but what about when I don't? I didn't foresee being outscored if I drew all consonants.
What a botched pre-endgame. I think I have better chances blocking the bingos than I do blocking ZI(g)S and outrunning BREEZ(E), since that's only one possible draw out of many whereas two possible draws bingo out and win.
It's extremely important to use range-finding in this sort of pre-endgame, otherwise you start worrying that Jesse has BEEHIVE on his rack and it plays at E1 for like 110 (I guess he could possibly have been going for that?)
>Jesse_Matthews: EEEHIRS 13M HE. +24 343
#note Quackle loses by 28 points in this endgame. Jesse did better, only because I totally screwed up.
>Joshua_Sokol: BBDVZ 7C .DZ +13 421
#note I absolutely need to play 1L B(E)V(Y) here first. I didn't see it and I got punished right away. Well done by Jesse to have kept his cool and rocked the endgame.
>Jesse_Matthews: EEIRS 2M .E. +6 349
>Joshua_Sokol: BBV I13 B.. +11 432
>Jesse_Matthews: EIRS 5C .I +13 362
>Joshua_Sokol: BV 12N B. +9 441
>Jesse_Matthews: ERS E4 .S +28 390
>Joshua_Sokol: V - +0 441
>Jesse_Matthews: ER 7C ...E +14 404
>Joshua_Sokol: V - +0 441
>Jesse_Matthews: R 13A R. +5 409
>Jesse_Matthews: (V) +8 417
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