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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Maddy_Kamen Maddy Kamen
>Jim_Burlant: AEFHPTT 8G HAFT +20 20
#note Reasonable choice...but not best. THEFT for 24 at 8D may be a smidge better.
>Maddy_Kamen: DDEILNU J3 INDUL.ED +66 66
#note While HAFT may have been a slight mistake that could be chalked up to stylistic preference, letting INDULTED* go unchallenged was a huge blunder on my end. Then again, being uncertain about it I had good reason to not take the chance on losing my turn:
>Jim_Burlant: EEIIPST F2 PIETIES +78 98
#note This also scores 69 at 9B and 67 at 7A. This scores 79 and is best.
>Maddy_Kamen: OOT K3 TOO +16 82
>Jim_Burlant: BEINQSW L4 WEB +32 130
#note I saw this, saw 32 points, and felt it scored well enough compared to any of the Q dumps I did see that it justified keeping the Q. The duck agrees - this is best. Roughly 64.5% to win. For reference, NIQAB (the sim runner up, which I admittedly missed) only scores 16 and wins 3% less often at a 7-point equity loss to this.
>Maddy_Kamen: CEIJLOR -CEIJL +0 82
>Jim_Burlant: AEEINQS 5D QA. +24 154
#note And my patience on the previous turn is rewarded. Nothing else is worth consideration here.
>Maddy_Kamen: ABEKLNR H7 R.NKABLE +67 149
#note Blunder #2 on my end. BARNLIKE (wihich plays for 88) is the legitimate bingo and RANKABLE* should also be swatted off the board. Shamefully, I didn't so much as hold.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEINSY 13G E.YSIAN +30 184
#note The star play here is very hard to find: EERILY 7F scores 23. All I saw was I11 YEA and 13G AYE, neither of which really moved me. Absent any good rack building optons (I whiffed on EERILY), I opted to dump the rack and score 30. This does poorly statically, and a sim doesn't like it much, either. EERILY wins just shy of 64%. This wins 4% less often and sims 7 points down.
>Maddy_Kamen: ADEGOUY -ADEGO +0 149
>Jim_Burlant: ADEGOUY 12K GAUDY +37 221
#note I considered two plays: 3C OUGIYA and this. I felt that if it had to come down to what was more likely to give up a huge comeback, the Y at O12 was the lesser risk than the A at H3. It takes a sim roughly 500 iterations to start sorting itself out. Eventually it reaches the same conclusion I did: GAUDY is the better play. OUGIYA is a nice play with a better leave, but this is better. 76% to win.
>Maddy_Kamen: ALMN O8 MANL. +30 179
>Jim_Burlant: EIIOORX 11E IXI. +22 243
#note No really good optoins here. I wanted to start gumming up bingo lines. The duck feels I should do that by playing OORIE M6. I don't like that one iota; maybe it clears the rack, but it potentially trades 11 for 40+ if she's got someting like CLAMP or THROW in her rack. Given how limited my options are, I'm okay with this since this is the best option I have that actually defends against something.
>Maddy_Kamen: UV 8M VU. +8 187
>Jim_Burlant: EEOORRS L8 ORE +14 257
#note Now that I finally have a workable starting point, I put this down to balance the rack. The duck feels that 10D plays are the ticket. ROE 10D wins 88.3%; this wins 87% and sims a little more than 3 points down. I'd make this play again.
>Maddy_Kamen: ERZ I1 REZ +44 231
>Jim_Burlant: EEINORS 1H O.E +9 266
#note Prior to her play of REZ, I was going to play OE 10E for 17. With memories of the Swift debacle in game 3 still rattling around in my head, I wasn't taking chances on leaving the 3x3 open, so the only question was, how much of the rack to break up? I felt that with only 1 N and a bunch of bingo killers unseen I should play cheap. The duck says IRONE 1H was best and this was the runner up. IRONE wins 77-1/2%; this wins 73 and sims nearly 7 points down. The problems with my choice are not just the 9 scoreboard points I'm sacrificing, but the lack of turnover is at least as much of a problem with both blanks unseen.
>Maddy_Kamen: HI 6C HI +16 247
>Jim_Burlant: EINORSV 7B VIS +25 291
#note The bingoes don't play. I figured she was setting up a C hook, not an A hook, which is why this came down. I realized after that she could still put down words with AV in them. Quackle says I had a good idea, but the better play was to score 31 with VERSO 10B. Makes sense - that's still a good block in its own right and it turns 2 more tiles with the blanks still unseen. That said, this was still a strong play. Just shy of 69% to win; VERSO wins 73-1/2%.
>Maddy_Kamen: JOT M2 JOT +27 274
>Jim_Burlant: EGIMNOR 10B GNOME +29 320
#note Predictably, the duck likes a bunch of rack building fishes: N1 ROM, N2 OM. OK, they're nice...but they don't reduce her bingo chances one iota. What I like about this play is that it adds resistance to the B and C columns (e.g.: it now blocks a blank BEREAVED) while it turns 5 tiles and scores well. I'd make this play again. 68% to win.
>Maddy_Kamen: TU 2M .UT +20 294
>Jim_Burlant: CEEINOR 14E CIN. +10 330
#note I was starting to get low on time by now. I threw this down to kill bingoes on row 15. Predictably, Quackle wants me to play O1 ETIC or 3A ONEIRIC. No thanks - they don't defend against the most dangerous line she's got. An option I missed at the time that looks really good is NICER 10C. It scores 5 more points than this and also interferes with 12A, with is something CINE doesn't do. If I had this turn to do again I'd play NICER.
>Maddy_Kamen: DO 14J OD +14 308
>Jim_Burlant: CEEOPRR 15I OP +9 339
#note With better knowledge of her rack I might feel safer looking to score enough to outrun with something like COPER. However - the pool threatens low-prob bingoes on row 15 that will give her the win. Was I playing scared? You bet. OTOH this still put me up 31 - hopefully enough margin to survive the impending end game.
>Maddy_Kamen: AS I11 SA. +22 330
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACEERR 2B sCRA.E +18 357
#note Down dangeroiusly low on time when this went down.What I should do is play 12A CARER. This still wound up being enough...but only becase I get a huge break:
>Maddy_Kamen: ?AFGRTW 12A WAGeR +29 359
#note Maddy doesn't have a win. Her best play is WEFTS G1 for 44. I would follow that up with RULE N7 12 to win by a handful.
>Jim_Burlant: ELR B10 .L.RE +12 369
#note And with 3 seconds on my clock this goes down. This or RULE N7 are my out plays.
>Jim_Burlant: (FT) +10 379
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