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#player1 Jesse_Matthews Jesse Matthews
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Jesse_Matthews: CMU 8G CUM +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: FGIORRW -FGIORW +0 0
#note Sad but true: I never saw FURROW. I only saw that I couldn't play FROW, and I didn't like CROW and WORM. At that point I shrugged my shoulders and gave up. Here's the shocker: this barely concedes anything in a sim to FURROW. FURROW wins just shy of 42%. This wins 1% less often at an equity deficit of not quite 4 points and sims better than anything except FURROW.
>Jesse_Matthews: FLL H7 F.LL +7 21
>Jim_Burlant: INNPRRV -NPRV +0 0
#note While there was no reason to exchange on turn 1, this position leaves me no choice. The only question is whether to keep the P? This or exchanging 3 keeping INPR are the two best choices.
>Jesse_Matthews: EZ 10H .EZ +32 53
>Jim_Burlant: CDINORT 7H .OND +14 14
#note It was either this or DOC for me. I chose this because CINRT felt too consonant heavy. Looking at the choices, CROC G5 also looks good.
>Jesse_Matthews: AGO K4 GOA. +12 65
>Jim_Burlant: ?CDEIRT F2 DIRECTs +76 90
#note Bingo options all over the place (11B DIRECTs, 5E DEPICTOR/COEDITOR/CREDITOR). The row 11 bingoes score 75, and this scores 76 which is why it was my choice. This is best.
>Jesse_Matthews: EIL L3 LIE +14 79
>Jim_Burlant: AIMNORT E2 ATOM +27 117
#note No 8's play. A number of good choices exist on row 11; MANO 11I looks very good and to be honest I'm not sure why my sixth sense told me to play here instead of there, but it did. The sim winner is 11I MANITO, which I never saw. As for MAIN/MATIN 11I and this, the sim can't tell the three plays apart for runner up status. MANITO wins just under 64%. This wins roughly 1-1/2% less often than MANITO at an equity deficit of just under 3 points.
>Jesse_Matthews: EEFPRSX 4D F..EX +46 125
#note Good thing for me I played ATOM, as this was Jesse's actual rack: ATOM blocked PREFIXES on row 3 for 106!
>Jim_Burlant: GIIJNRY M2 JIG +31 148
#note I suck. It used to be that the only short(ish) J word I repeatedly missed was BIJOU. Now it appears I need to add JINX to that list. This is literally the 3rd time in three months I have missed this (or some inflection thereof) in a tournament game. Can someone explain to me why I repeatedly miss a common 4-letter J word that should be this easy to find?
>Jesse_Matthews: EIPRSSY H1 PRE. +39 164
#note Just desserts.
>Jim_Burlant: GIINPRY J10 .INGY +26 174
#note Meh. Missing GRIPY 11D for 7 more. ZINGY is still strong but I really shouldn't be missing such easy plays!
>Jesse_Matthews: IKRST 8K SKIRT +49 213
>Jim_Burlant: BHIOPRU N1 HOB +39 213
#note I didn't really like this because of the potential comebacks at O1, but 39 points was 39 points. This is best, but my earlier mistakes have cost me: instead of winning near 60%, I'm down to 33% in the duck's eyes.
>Jesse_Matthews: AALO L8 .OALA +18 231
>Jim_Burlant: EHIIPRU N6 EU.IPI +16 229
#note No real standouts. I considered M10 HIRE but couldn't stomach the IPU leave. Eventually I figured I should just reduce the O column threat from bingoes to high-scoring intermediate plays and turn 5 tiles to chase the blank. The duck agrees: this is best, winning 32%.
>Jesse_Matthews: ADISV O11 DIVAS +33 264
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEHNOR 13C OvERHAN. +82 311
#note After several minutes, I finally find it. I had almost given up on this rack and was about to play OE O1 for 31 to take the JO back hooks away. With AAAEEEEE unseen, a strong case could be made for doing that. And, if the bingo only scored 72 instead of 82, I might have passed it up. But once I found it and saw that it scored 82 points I couldn't pass it up. A sim agrees. This is my only bingo and it wins 71% and change. For reference, OE wins just shy of 61 and sims 13 points down.
>Jesse_Matthews: EOSW O1 OWSE +58 322
#note Ouch - nice fit!
>Jim_Burlant: DEERSTU H12 D.UT +21 332
#note A lot of choices in the sim that are separated by very little. I had not yet recognized that I was sitting on the case S, and I thought (mistakenly) that QATS was a possibilty here, which is why I put this down. Even though my reasoning was wrong, it is the right play. This keeps reasonably well (I hope I don't draw another E, though), it scores 21, and everything else available scores 10 - 14. This is best. 55% to win.
>Jesse_Matthews: OVW E10 WOV. +20 342
>Jim_Burlant: ABEERST 15B TABERE.S +63 395
#note Fishing plays like BE N14 looked pointless because there was no way row 15 was staying open, and I didn't see any good scoring. (I hadn't recognized M11 possibilities until my next turn). With neither ABETTERS nor BERETTAS playable, I felt I had to take the chance. I was pretty sure this was phony (it is), but felt that with 6 in the bag, it was now or never. And, given that hindsight showed the bag contained AAENNN, it's doubtful anything but the phony would have won. This wasn't even held.
>Jesse_Matthews: EIQRTUY 5D E..RY +34 376
#note Nice play! And truth be told, I held him on this for a couple of minutes. PREXY drove me crazy, and later that night a check of Zyzzyva showed why: PREXY is good; it's PLEX that doesn't take the back Y. I let this go because I recalled something I was taught before I ever played my first tournament: NEVER challenge yourself out of a win. So fortunately I wised up and let it go.
>Jim_Burlant: AAENNN M11 ANNA +15 410
#note Best would have been 6A NAAN for 12 to save a handful of spread points.
>Jesse_Matthews: IQTU 6A QUIT +21 397
>Jesse_Matthews: (EN) +4 401
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