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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Jeff_Fiszbein Jeff Fiszbein
>Jim_Burlant: ABEIMRS 8C AMBRIES +78 78
#note Nice start!
>Jeff_Fiszbein: UX 9C XU +38 38
>Jim_Burlant: AAEQSTY G7 Q. +21 99
#note Debated between this and 7A QAT and took a while before deciding on this. Rack balance or not, I ultimately wasn't confortable with the idea of giving him all sorts of huge points back if he had garbage like HOP in his rack, or even just 33 if he had an I. The duck says 7A QAT is best, and this is the bronze medalist behind that ant TEA 7C. That said, this is a minor miss in the sim's eys: this wins 1% less often than QAT and sims 2 points down. Jeff looked awfully annoyed when I put this down, and his next rack showed why this was the best play I could have made this game:
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ALNNOPR 10D NOPAL +18 56
#note And I just blocked NONPOLAR. With NONPOLAR blocked his best two options are AXONAL C8 or this.
>Jim_Burlant: AAESTTY 11E YA +24 123
#note I never saw LYTTAE, which mean that if I was going to keep duplicated T's, I'd want to keep more of the rack together which is why I chose this instead of YEA for 4 more. The duck agrees - this is best.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ?CGILNO 12F CLOyING +77 133
#note LOCOING or LOCKING score 79.
>Jim_Burlant: AEHSTTW 13C WHAT +28 151
#note This is a strong choice but it's not quite best. 13F TAW unloads the W, keeps the E, and it doesn't give back potential bonanzas at 12A. That said, the difference in the sim is relatively minor: TAW wins, this wins 0.4% less often and sims 1.2 points down. 58.6% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: IOR K9 IRO. +8 141
>Jim_Burlant: AEEINST L3 ETESIAN +68 219
#note I3 TENIASES scores 69 but this is best because it takes out the easiest line to hit. 81% to win, but not for long.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: AEIJORT 6H JARO.ITE +69 210
#note Only bingo, but I'm still in the driver's seat. Jeff is back up to 32% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: AGINOTW O1 TOWNI. +30 249
#note Couldn't think of TOWAGE and the only other play I considered was 7B OW. I was correct to reject OW despite the juicy AGINT leave; if I had this to do again I'd play WIGEON or TOWAGE down the O column because their leaves are vastly better than the AG I left myself here. 63% to win. WIGEON wins just under 67%. Jeff held this, but released it.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: DIV 8L .VID +24 234
>Jim_Burlant: ACDGMOT H12 .GAM +21 270
#note DOGMATIC doesn't play, and except for 14B COMA (which I never saw), everything is in the low to mid 20's. Not seeing anything obvious I could do about 12A, I wanted to defend against OOZE or OUZO here. Best is apparently a bunch of row 5 plays, either MAG(E) or DOG(E). Not sure what I'd do if I had this one to do again. This sims way down the list, but that's only because everything is more or less as mediocre as anything else. I gave up a handful of scoreboard points here but really didn't kill myself with the board position.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: GPY 7A GYP +27 261
>Jim_Burlant: CDEOOTZ 12B ZOO +39 309
#note Sad but true: I saw this, saw the CDET leave, 39 points, and that was that. I never saw CHEZ for 56. That said - A sim makes clear this isn't much of a miss, becasue I don't have to worry about HEEZE or FEAZE as comebacks and CDET is much better than DOOT as a leave. 70% to win. For reference, CHEZ wins 72.5% and sims 2 points better despite outscoring this by 17 points.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ABEEFFL -ABE +0 261
>Jim_Burlant: CDEERTU A7 .UDE +18 327
#note I saw this and didn't like the risk of FEZ/FIZ as comebacks. I saw A7 TRUDGE...but didn't want to be starting from scratch coming off his 3-tile exchnage, which suggested to me he was reasonably close. GUDE risked the FEZ/FIZ comebacks, but this did the best job of taking out the O column while limiting exposure to the pool with all those unseen E's. A sim says DECURY B2 is best, TRUDGE a close second, and this or B10CUZ are moreor less equal bronze medalists. 84% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: ?DKNOSU 3F UNSOaK.D +78 339
>Jim_Burlant: ACEERRT 4A RECRATE +74 401
#note Good thing for me I held this rack together. Had I played TRUDGE I'd be sitting on ACEER and two unknown tiles, and it's very unlikely I'd be bingoing back.. This is my only bingo. 87% to win.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: EF B10 FE. +36 375
>Jim_Burlant: ABDEEET 2D DEB +23 424
#note Sitting on the case A, I thought it would set up scoring for myself on row 1 and/or force his hand on this turn. Q says 5E BE was the play.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: FH K5 F.H +33 408
>Jim_Burlant: AEEITUV 1A UVEA +28 452
#note Best appears to be 1F AVE setting up the ETUI 1A OUT.
>Jeff_Fiszbein: EILLNRS 14F SN.IL +20 428
>Jim_Burlant: EIT 14A TIE +12 464
>Jim_Burlant: (ELR) +6 470
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