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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Asif_Ali Asif Ali
>Jim_Burlant: BGHIOVW 8F WHIG +22 22
#note I saw this and VOW for 18. I didn't think the BGHI leave with VOW justified giving up both the 4 scoreboard points and front A hook. This is best.
>Asif_Ali: CNRU G7 C.URN +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: BFGIKOV 11E BO.K +20 42
#note Racks like this hurt my brain because I can't determine just how much better a BKOV leave is compared to FGIV and how much board position I should be willing to give up for them. If I was going to play these tiles, they would have played for 3 more at 7E without giving back plays to H15. Nothing really stands out here - apparently I should play FRIG or FROG 10F. Those plays win 48 - 49%. This wins just under 48 and sims a little more than 3 points down. This game is barely 2 turns old and it's clear I'm going to have to grind yet another game.
>Asif_Ali: ADEPTT 12A PATTED +31 45
>Jim_Burlant: FGIJSTV B11 V.GI +16 58
#note Right idea, wrong execution. Counterintuitive to burn all the bingo prone consonants just to play for points, but apparently thats's what I should do here. The duck says I need to play FIATS B10 for 32 keeping GJV, or open the northeast with J4 GIFTS keeping JV. It takes a while for the sim to sort itself out, but VAGI does finish as the bronze medalist. FIATS wins at 47-1/2%; GIFTS is second by a statistically insignificant margin, and this is third, winning 1.2% less often than FIATS at an equity deficit of not quite 2-1/2 points.
>Asif_Ali: EMU A14 MU +16 61
#note He initially fished off ME before changing to this play.
>Jim_Burlant: ABFIJST H11 .AIFS +39 97
#note Three choices top a sim and the differences are fairly minor - 13E TAJ wins, J5 AJIS, and this. I saw this and wanted to get some decent turnover for the first time this game. TAJ wins a smi at 55.3%; AJIS wins 0.8% less often than TAJ and this is third, winning 0.5% less often than AJIS. This sims roughly 2-1/2 points down on TAJ.
>Asif_Ali: ADEEINR 15F AR.ENIDE +61 122
>Jim_Burlant: BEJLNTU M12 JUB. +26 123
#note Finally, I get one right. This is best, but Asif is still in the driver's seat: I'm just shy of 40% to win. The other options worth consideraton are MILNEB 14A (never saw it) and 13G JIB (would be nice to unload the U).
>Asif_Ali: OO 13B .OO +14 136
>Jim_Burlant: EELNTTU 14F LE.T +17 140
#note JUBE blocked unletted, so what to do? Easy: take out the potential Z bomb and leave a balanced ENTU. The only other play remotely worth consideration per the sim is (MI)TTEN 14A, but this is clearly best. 42% to win.
>Asif_Ali: ACMO N11 COMA +37 173
>Jim_Burlant: ?ENRSTU J2 NeUTERS +72 212
#note Paralysis by 1000 choices. The duck indicates its dissatisfaction with this choice - it feels I shouldn't open so much of the northeast up? Given his next play, perhaps it has a point. Regardless, back in the driver's seat: 64% to win. Best per the sim are J5 pUNSTER/mUNSTER.
>Asif_Ali: DIILQ 4G LIQ.ID +34 207
>Jim_Burlant: ENOSTTX H1 TOX.N +36 248
#note Hmmm. I'd have thought taking 36 points and keeping EST would have been a no-brainer. The duck feels that with 6 E's unseen, I should take the extra 3 points. Maybe in Quackle-land, but given the drawing problems I've been having in this tournament, there was no way I would break up EST for only 3 more points. I'm fine with this.
>Asif_Ali: AHP O13 PAH +36 243
>Jim_Burlant: AEERSTW M4 SWEATER +79 327
#note The other playable bingo is DEWATERS L4, but that only scores 63. This wins just shy of 93% in a short sim.
>Asif_Ali: EELR N6 LEER +16 259
>Jim_Burlant: DGNNOVY O3 YOND +13 340
#note Because I didn't see a NONLIQUIDS extension for 40, this was where I took several minutes to analyze the unseen pool and determine my next move. Ideally I'd like to defend against row 1 bingoes, but the only thing I can do on that front is DOL G2 for 18 or GYNO 2E for 16. I could see GYNO leading to his opening other lines in the northwest and I didn't like leaving myself 4 consonants. I then noticed at the Z was out and FEAZES was a possibility. I played this to turn 4 tiles and kill that possibility. Obviously NONLIQUIDS if I know/see it, otherwise I'm fine with this since he'll have to burn his blank to play bEYOND which will only score 27.
>Asif_Ali: AE O8 AE +18 277
>Jim_Burlant: GINORVZ 2F ZO. +32 372
#note Well, that was easy. Now his only line is row 5. 98% to win.
>Asif_Ali: AIY 5E AYI. +16 293
>Jim_Burlant: EGIINRV 6D VIE +17 389
#note Have to block FOLAtES. Quackle says this wins 96.79%. What miracle can he conjure up that wins this game for him? :-)
>Asif_Ali: ?AEFLOS 3B FELlA +25 318
>Jim_Burlant: GINR 11E ....ING +28 417
>Asif_Ali: OS N2 SO +9 327
#note 7E SOC scores 18.
>Asif_Ali: (R) +2 329
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