| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Ed_Stewart Ed Stewart
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Ed_Stewart: ABL 8G BAL +10 10
>Jim_Burlant: CCEEPQW -CEPQW +0 0
#note I don't care if WEEP scores 23 or CLEW gets rid of the W and one of my C's. None of those plays score well enough to justify keeping a Q without an I or a U. The duck thinks I had more or less the right idea, but that I should have also kept the P.
>Ed_Stewart: AY 9G YA +22 32
>Jim_Burlant: CEEGINT J5 GENETIC +70 70
#note Both placements have their pitfalls, but J7 scores 68 and J5 scores 70. When in doubt, take the points. A sim agrees. 59% to win.
>Ed_Stewart: ENORSTU 12G TONSURE +77 109
#note Fortunately for me, he's not finding his best plays. TROUNCES scores 90 on row 11 and TENOURS on row 12 doesn't give back all the easy hooks.
>Jim_Burlant: DFHLOOW K2 WHOOF +39 109
#note Then again, neither am I. :-) WHOOFED M7 scores 44. I get the TONSURE back hooks on the next turn.
>Ed_Stewart: AKR H12 .KRA +24 133
>Jim_Burlant: DDDELRY N10 REDDY +33 142
#note At this point I was beginning to get a touch concerned about the odd draws. Yes, they were playable and yes, I could score...but my experience is that usually the clunk changes from stuff you can score with to stuff that doesn't score while your opponent bingoes. At any rate - this is strong, but apparently, not best. Q prefers 4K ODDLY by a good bit - makes sense to some degree. Though it gives up 5 scoreboard points and slots the triple, ODDLY saves a D for TONSURE back hooks and keeps DER instead of DL. This isn't bad by any stretch; ODDLY is just a smidge better. 44% to win.
>Ed_Stewart: EJOS L1 JOES +52 185
>Jim_Burlant: DEEHILM M2 EH +34 176
#note I debated between two plays: this and HEILED O6. This play's strengths are that it scores very well, keeps a potent combination, and shuts down easy J plays to O1. To me, this made it far better than HEILED (or HELMED, which I didn't see). I figured he'd take out O8 and hopefully a good draw to DEILM would yield a bingo to put me up a notch. The duck agrees; this tops a sim at just over 40%.
>Ed_Stewart: AAEINPT O4 PATINAE +88 273
#note Well, he certainly covered O8, didn't he? Consolation: he has bingoes at 10A and 11A if I had taken out O8. And I'm in deep trouble now. He's 89% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: DEFILMU N5 FUME +26 202
#note Reasonable play, but not best. The problem I saw with plays like FLUME 10C (or 11C) was that it would be too easy for him to play downward from those and negate my openings. This outscores anything else that unloads the F and U, and it does so while not interfering with lines I need to stay open. This is a solid choice but I'm in deep yogurt no matter how I slice it: 6.8% to win. The sim winner, FWIW, is L6 FILUM. Had I played that, this game would not taken the improbable turn it took at the end.
>Ed_Stewart: CEIIMN 14B MINCIE. +26 299
>Jim_Burlant: ADEILRT 13A DAL +16 218
#note No bingoes play. While I made this board opening play more instinctively than analytically, I'll still stand by it. With 31 tiles in the bag, we are just far enough into the game where the worst-case scenarios become significantly more probable after each play. He turned 6 tiles on his last turnand it's not unreasonable to assume that he might have kept one of EGL. Turning 6, his odds of drawing the other two are not absurdly small. If I play DITA 15A per Quackle and he's got EGL in his rack, his next play is probably GEL 10F, which would put him up 89 points on a board with only two bingo lines: 7's ending on A in row 7 that give back counterplay at 8A, or probable 60-point air balls down the L column. The only remote chance I have is to open now, and if I have to give up equity to do it, so be it.
>Ed_Stewart: AZ 15A ZA +38 337
>Jim_Burlant: EIILRTW A7 TWIRLE. +36 254
#note Or WILTED. This is best, but it's beyond bleak. 2.1% to win.
>Ed_Stewart: AOR O13 OAR +17 354
>Jim_Burlant: DIIIIQS B6 QI +33 287
#note What kind of a draw is this? Seriously? The only reason I played through: I have all the I's so he can't hit me with anything painful down the C column. This is best but I'm treading water. Still 2.2% to win. Where are the blanks?
>Ed_Stewart: LOO C7 LOO +9 363
>Jim_Burlant: ADGIIIS 11D GADI +14 301
#note I was fixated with unloading the G. I also thought he might make a mistake and play something down the D column that might open 7's down the E column. Lastly I didn't want to shut down the L column. The duck thinks this word would have been best at M6. Again, hindsight says it's a good thing I didn't go for equity. Up to 4.7% winning chances. Woo hoo.
>Ed_Stewart: BERU D4 RUBE +16 379
>Jim_Burlant: GIINSVX E8 VIG. +8 309
#note Seeing the X and V was the last straw and I've come to terms with the fact that I can't win this game. I kept the X, hoping to cash it as a spread saver somewhere in the northwest during the end game. And my sixth sense was telling me to keep the L column open.
>Ed_Stewart: ?NOPSUV 4A UNP.OVeS +64 443
>Ed_Stewart: ?NOPSUV -- -64 379
>Jim_Burlant: ?INSTTX F14 .T +2 311
#note Challenging his phony snapped me out of self-pity mode. Counting tiles and finding only 1 tile left, I realized I could determine what was in the bag and decide if there was anything left to play for? The last tile in the bag was an E, which would allow me to fish off a T and bingo out with INTE(R)SeX for the win down the L column. We were playing on one of the new timers that counts down tenths of a second when you're under 1 minute and I mistakenly thought I was at 3.1 seconds (I was actually at 31). so I slapped this down as quickly as possible. There are a couple of other places that score a couple more points. I wanted to stay on the left side of the board to hopefully divert his attention from the L column while leaving all bingo lines open. The only question: would he be wise to what I was doing?
>Ed_Stewart: ?NOPSUV 4A OVe.SPUN +64 443
>Ed_Stewart: ?NOPSUV -- -64 379
#note And I catch yet another miraculous break. He initially put down P(R)OVe L11, which would have clinched the win. He coffee-housed, realizing I had an out bingo of dEXT(R)INS, and wondered out loud why he was doing this, but he pulled up PROVe. He was obviously going for spread.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EINSTX L8 INTe.SEX +73 384
#note OMG - I *won* this game?!?!?!?!?
>Jim_Burlant: (NOPSUV?) +22 406
|
