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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Alan_Stern Alan Stern
>Jim_Burlant: EGHNNUY 8H GUNNY +26 26
#note Best.
>Alan_Stern: CDEO J6 CO.ED +18 18
>Jim_Burlant: AEHMNOR I7 H.M +31 57
#note If the duck is to be believed, this is the wrong execution of the right idea. Quackle feels I should play HUMOR. I'm fine with this - it puts me up 39 points, he has nowhere to hook an S, and his only two bingo lines are the L column and a diffuclt to work-with H column. 61% to win.
>Alan_Stern: AEHINOR -AEHI +0 18
>Jim_Burlant: AEHINOR L4 HOAR. +22 79
#note It's this or 9G HOME. I saw no reason to open up; that's his job. I'm 69% to win.
>Alan_Stern: IIRS M2 IRIS +15 33
>Jim_Burlant: EINOPQR -OQ +0 79
#note Hmmm. Not sure I agree with the duck here. The duck wants me to play H4 PIROGEN. I saw QI 2L (the sim runner up) and rejected it - I didn't feel like giving back 32 points for OSE if he had it in his rack, and I didn't like the idea of breaking up this promising rack while keeping a Q. My thinking was that I'd let him do something on row 2 - if he could - and come back with something big on row 1.
>Alan_Stern: AI -A +0 33
>Jim_Burlant: AEINPRR K3 RAP +26 105
#note Best. Just shy of 80% to win.
>Alan_Stern: AI K10 AI +7 40
>Jim_Burlant: EEGINRS 12G GREISEN +71 176
#note The 12E placement scores 62 and this scores 71; hence, my choice. This is the best bingo - 95% to win, but not for long.
>Alan_Stern: AELRSTU N5 ESTRUAL +67 107
>Jim_Burlant: AGILPTU M10 PA.G +20 196
#note Whiffed on everything. Only saw RUGA to H15, couldn't think of PRUTA, and didn't look at row 2 for PIGTAIL. This is awful, and it's one of the inflection points in this game. If I had this to do again PRUTA or PIGTAIL would have been the play.
>Alan_Stern: EISTX O11 EXITS +63 170
>Jim_Burlant: FIILOTU 13B TUFOLI +24 220
#note The only other play worth consideration is H11 FRUIT. This is best. Still 68% to win.
>Alan_Stern: MOT 12C MOT +26 196
>Jim_Burlant: BEEIOTW 14E WOE +22 242
#note I struggled with time here. I can't play WOT 14A because it leaves me two E's with E as the most probable tile in the pool. The danger in this is that it only scores 22 but potentially gives a bonanza back on row 15. Ultimately that's all I can do. I can't defend O1 with these tiles; all I can do is balance the rack and hope I draw into something that plays on row 3. The duck agrees - this is best. Just shy of 64% to win.
>Alan_Stern: ADENO 15D ANODE +37 233
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ?BEITVZ 2L B.ZE +30 272
#note Looking at it now, on this board the only bingo lines are rows 2 and 3, which means a bingo will probably score no more than 60 - 65 points. Given that, I needed to realize that 54 for BIZEs - which I never considered - is as good as a bingo. This only gives up 6 equity to O1 BIZEs and sacrifices 4% winning chances, but my play is a much bigger mistake than the sim says. I'm still 77% to win. If I had this turn to do again, I'd burn the blank with BIZEs. As for this: it was BIZ or BIZE and I didn't want to give him an extra 15 points if he could hook BIZ with an E. Regardless, punishment for this mistake was swift:
>Alan_Stern: CKN O1 N.CK +45 278
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEIITV 15L VIE. +11 283
#note No bingoes are available; unfortunately, I took several minutes to figure this out over the board. I also don't have a good row 1 play. The only thing that looks better is 14J VIA - I forgot about the A back hook to PANG, which ruled that out. Still in good shape at 68% to win.
>Alan_Stern: AF 1K FA +11 289
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAIJNT B13 .AJ +20 303
#note Came down to two plays: JAR 3J and this. I envisioned him extending the J or gumming up; the works with JOE or JOY and I didn't want to do that. In retrospect I needed to realize I was sitting on both the remaining A's and JAR front hooks would have scored huge at H1 on the next turn. Still 76% to win.
>Alan_Stern: EL H8 .EL +9 298
>Jim_Burlant: ?AIINTV 10D ANVI. +16 319
#note Enough of these draws!!!! No idea what to do - it's either this or E10 INTOWN.
>Alan_Stern: BD 14A B.D +12 310
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEIOTY 9D YO +12 331
#note Yet another rack full of no-gos that I burned yet more time on. I put this down to block Q plays down the E column. This is my best play and it ostensibly wins 84%.
>Alan_Stern: ?ELRTUW 8A bLURT +25 335
#note Alan had figured out bLURT/WE, but we realized post-mortem that he got the sequence backwards. Had he played WE J2 for 15, I would have to come back with QuE(ER) 3G for 24. bLURT then scores 25 and he gets 10 points from my remaining DIOT rack to win by 5.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEIOQT F6 QIs +35 366
#note Not that this is a hard play to find, but it actually took me almost a minute to find it!
>Alan_Stern: EW J2 WE +15 350
>Alan_Stern: (DEOT) +10 360
#note Glad I pulled this out - PANG and BIZE were two mistakes for which Alan made me pay dearly. As for the rest of the struggles, wow. Not much I could do about them, per se.
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