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#player1 Morris_Greenberg Morris Greenberg
#player2 Rafi_Stern Rafi Stern
>Morris_Greenberg: EGLSTWZ -GW +0 0
#note MG: Interesting first turn choice. The main choices here are exchanging keeping ELST, exchanging keeping ESTZ, exchanging keeping ELSTZ, or playing LEZ. They are all reasonably close in a simulation but Quackle likes scoring the points with LEZ. I couldn't pull the trigger with the GSTW leave.
>Rafi_Stern: AEIJOOX H7 JIAO +22 22
#note Morris and I swam every morning before play, and on the first morning I made a poolside prediction that we would play in round 4!
>Morris_Greenberg: EELMSTZ 9G M.ZE +28 28
#note MG: I missed ZL(O)TE here, that is much better.
>Rafi_Stern: DEMOOOX K5 MOOED +33 55
#note Didn't even notice XED... luckily MOOED is stronger.
>Morris_Greenberg: AEILOST F5 ISOLATE +79 107
>Rafi_Stern: BEIOQXY E5 QI +46 101
>Morris_Greenberg: ?KLNORV 6J V.LK +19 126
#note MG: I was choosing between V(O)LK 6J and R(E)VOKe D6 this turn. Quackle likes these options 2nd and 3rd respectively to V(O)LK 7J for 3 fewer points. That prevents Rafi's next play.
>Rafi_Stern: BCEIOXY L4 CY.IX +76 177
>Morris_Greenberg: ??ILNOR 8J R..INe +38 164
#note MG: This sims better than any bingo.
>Rafi_Stern: BDEENOS 12F DEBONES +85 262
>Morris_Greenberg: ?AADLNO D6 DALApON +70 234
#note MG: I prefered not going the 11I route as it becomes much easier for Rafi to control the board quickly. Fwiw, Quackle prefers all 3 11I bingos (DANAzOL, mONADAL, and gONADAL) ahead of this.
>Rafi_Stern: AGILNRU J12 .U +2 264
#note Interesting position. In general, I'm not a huge fan of fishing with a lead, but I bingo SO frequently here that it seemed like the right play. According to Quackle, I bingo 84% of the time - but Morris will sometimes block. However, it's quite difficult to block the E - my main threat - without either having an S for VOLKS or sacrificing a lot of points. 25/47 unseen hit a 7, and 42/47 hit the E (although some E bingos will score only 60). I think Morris is more likely to block NU because it's easier to score in that quadrant. For some reason I considered GULL but not BURG, which is what I should have played... I still bingo 45% of the time, but it's less costly if I miss.
>Morris_Greenberg: AORSUVW N1 VROUWS +42 276
#note MG: I sensed that Rafi's fish implied he had bingos on both the 14th row and the O column to the E. Therefore, I stuck with my highest equity play that blocks the higher scoring lane with less counterplay ability.
>Rafi_Stern: AGILNPR 14D PARLING +74 338
>Morris_Greenberg: AAEGGOT 1K AGA.E +33 309
>Rafi_Stern: EEFHIIU 15G IF +32 370
#note Definitely merit to playing HUE... I will likely get IF next turn and might upgrade to REIF or NEIF. More flexibility in EFII than EEHIU.
>Morris_Greenberg: CEGNOTW 11K WOG +26 335
#note MG: This or COW(L) 8A both seem pretty reasonable.
>Rafi_Stern: AEEFHIU 10H .AF +39 409
>Morris_Greenberg: CEEINTT 15A CITE +26 361
#note MG: Given all of the E's out and the fact that to use this lane, most bingos will end in -IC, CETE is better here.
>Rafi_Stern: EEHIRTU 8A HUR. +21 430
#note I can't really do anything about row 2, which is pretty annoying, so I have to continue trying to score without opening up great bingo options. I considered (U)TERI to block the right side, but EHU is a bit ugly. I played HURL to prevent parallel plays like YEH setting up RYA, or HEP setting up SHA. There are a lot of parallel plays in that spot that I really can't easily deal with. The H and U aren't easy to bingo though, so while I'm giving Morris some options, I'm taking away the opportunity to set up something way more dangerous. In the game, I didn't realize the main problem with HURL... the bag is 1/3 E's and T's, making my EEIT leave really undesirable. Maybe I should just try to outrun by playing HUE on column C leaving EIRT? I'm up by enough to withstand a bingo and I can bingo back a lot myself, and there's really nothing I can easily do about row 2. I think HURL is the right idea, but possibly worse than other options because of the potential rack inflexibility next turn. Maybe just go with UTERI as there aren't many great options this turn and it blocks one more lane I may have to deal with later.
>Morris_Greenberg: BEENNTU C11 BUN +16 377
#note MG: Quackle suggests BUTENE 2F by a lot. Interestingly, it says I bingo 21% of the time next turn thereafter, after drawing 6 random tiles!
>Rafi_Stern: EEEIRTT 13J .TERI +19 449
#note This time UTERI is clearly best.
>Morris_Greenberg: EENPTTY 2I PYE +18 395
>Rafi_Stern: AEEHRST A4 HEAT.ERS +68 517
#note MG: Well, that pretty much sums up this game.
>Rafi_Stern: (DENTT) +12 529
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