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#player1 Morris_Greenberg Morris Greenberg
#player2 Jason_Keller Jason Keller
>Morris_Greenberg: ELNSUUV 8G LUV +12 12
>Jason_Keller: DW H7 W.D +7 7
>Morris_Greenberg: BEENSUW -BUW +0 12
#note Quackle slightly prefers playing UNSEW J6 here for 25, or exchanging BEUW instead of BUW. All 3 seem reasonable here, I prefer the exchanging route because it reduces his score by a lot (Quackle estimates 9 points), and allows for me to be more flexible on a relatively inflexible board.
>Jason_Keller: III -III +0 7
>Morris_Greenberg: CEEFHNS 7F FE. +13 25
#note I was choosing here between playing FE(W) and exchanging just the F, and thought the points were too good here to pass up. Quackle agrees.
>Jason_Keller: ADIOZ 6B DIAZO +28 35
>Morris_Greenberg: CEHNORS C2 CHOR.NES +80 105
>Jason_Keller: MY D3 MY +31 66
>Morris_Greenberg: ?ANOUXY D9 ONYX +30 135
#note NOYAUX or NOYAU are 2 words I forgot about, and are both better at D8 than this.
>Jason_Keller: AIT E11 AIT +25 91
>Morris_Greenberg: ?AEELQU J2 QUELEAs +93 228
>Jason_Keller: ADELSTU 14E SALUTED +66 157
>Morris_Greenberg: EGGLNOO 15F GONE +28 256
#note I did not know LEGONG 15J, and Quackle prefers LEGONG slightly to GONE, saying that Jason's score on average only increases by 4 with LEGONG and bingo percentage by 1.5% naively. I prefer the GONE route though; not only does it allow for fewer points, but also has a lower standard deviation, so the spread gap will become marginally more meaningful.
>Jason_Keller: APRW 13J WARP +26 183
>Morris_Greenberg: GIILNOR K4 RING +21 277
#note Quackle slightly prefers INRO K2 for 6 extra points and a better leave. However, RING drops his bingos next turn form 17% to 12%. Is 5% worth 6 points?
>Jason_Keller: HNOR L1 HORN +28 211
>Morris_Greenberg: ?AIILOT 1K T.IOL +24 301
#note Maybe IOTA 12I instead?
>Jason_Keller: PU F10 UP +14 225
>Morris_Greenberg: ?ABGIIT L6 GAIT +14 315
#note (O)BlIGATI.
>Jason_Keller: IO 15K OI +7 232
>Morris_Greenberg: ?ABDIKR O1 .ARK +13 328
#note Quackle prefers the bingoing route to the blocking route, specifically with L11 KI(R) or 8A KA(E). Those bingo allow me to bingo around 60% of the time next turn, whereas LARK only 25%. However, if I miss that fish, I could easily see myself losing grasp of the game.
Quackle also slightly prefers a different blocking play is (O)IK N1. With all of the E's out, it's still valuable to block -EST bingos than bingos starting with O or L, and this preserves an R for bingos. However, I thought blocking the L took precedence because all other bingo lines give me a triple counterplay, so outrunning would be much easier.
>Jason_Keller: BE 8A BE. +15 247
>Morris_Greenberg: ?BDEEFI 12H FEED +24 352
#note I was choosing between M8 FE and 12H FEED. I decided on FEED because while it allows more bingos this turn, if Jason bingos with WARPS, the board can become dead for bingos if I just block the A8 B the next turn. Quackle agrees here for these 2 plays in a vacuum: while this does give up more bingos on Jason's next turn (17% instead of 8%), the turn thereafter, it gives up bingos less (9% to 13%), so 10 extra points now is worth it.
However, both plays have better versions that I failed to consider: 12H BEEF is 2 more points than FEED, and keeps a much stronger leave, and M8 FIE or FEEB actually blocks more bingos than FE, as FE still allows for column N bingos sometimes. Playing one of those 3 seems best.
>Jason_Keller: AIINRSS N7 RAISINS +69 316
>Morris_Greenberg: ?BCIJMV E1 VIM +18 370
#note What a weird draw! This is a bad endgame on my part, as I forgot about O(V)ATE.
>Jason_Keller: AEEEOTT 1D O.ATE +27 343
>Morris_Greenberg: ?BCJ 11M J.B +12 382
#note J(OY)s.
>Jason_Keller: EET O6 TEE +17 360
>Jason_Keller: (?C) +6 366
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