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#player1 Rob Rob
#player2 Geoff Geoff
>Rob: BEEIIIL -BEIIIL +0 0
#note Rob: Quackle prefers to keep EL on the exchange. I'm not a fan of L's, and I was a bit of a magnet for them this weekend, so I'm not unhappy with exchanging 6.
>Geoff: AGMRRTT -GRT +0 0
#note Rob: Quackle slightly prefers 8F GRAM. Meh.
>Rob: AEEIITZ -EII +0 0
#note Rob: The exchange sims about 11.5 points behind 8G ZITE in a vacuum, but after Geoff's exchange I really didn't consider any actual plays from this rack. I felt that I was significantly behind in the rack building race, and exchanging holds a lot more value now.
>Geoff: ADMNRST -DM +0 0
#note Rob: Pretty similar discussion for Geoff's position as for mine on the previous turn. Reasonable options like 8G MAND are much, much harder to justify during the exchange standoff.
>Rob: AEEFOTZ 8D FEAZE +42 42
#note Rob: It's close to a coin flip between ZOEAE and FEAZE in the sim, even if I assume Geoff is drawing to something like AERST. After talking with Geoff after the game, though, I think I favor ZOEAE - if I assume that Geoff has finally hit his bingo, retaining the F is likely to give me some firepower to draw evenish after his play. Additionally, ZOEAE slightly devalues the S I expect him to have.
>Geoff: ACENRST E4 SARC.NET +90 90
#note Geoff: For some reason I was thinking at the time I was overlooking an anagram of this that might have been better positionally, but I wasn't. Ok, we're off...
>Rob: EIINOOT D8 .INITO +24 66
#note Rob: Playing off IO sims surprisingly close to this, but sorry Quackle, I am not fishing to EINOT when I'm already down 50 points.
>Geoff: AABEINP 6A PEAB.AIN +66 156
#note Geoff: Quite relieved the R didn't get blocked here, obviously.
>Rob: EHIORUV A4 HU.IRO +45 111
#note Rob: This comes out a bit ahead of UPHOVE in the sim, despite retaining the V. The possibility of V overlaps down column C helps with that a bit.
>Geoff: EGIRSTT H4 RI.G.TTES +62 218
#note Rob: Pretty indistinguishable from the other 9 available, 11B GRITTIEST, except for style points of course. I'd argue that RINGETTES also helps Geoff better control the board down the road.
>Rob: ?EHISUV B9 UnHIVES +76 187
#note Rob: Simming a couple of points ahead of HUSWIVES 12F.
>Geoff: ADEEGOU A14 OU +14 232
#note Rob: This is the first example of Geoff taking his tournament position into account, and not just his chances of winning the game. He was a game and several hundred spread points ahead of Chris going into this last game, so barring a major swing of spread he could afford to lose this game without any severe repercussions. Trying to minimize my scoring opportunities and the board volatility thus was a very significant consideration for him throughout the game.
>Rob: ?EGLOOW 4H .EGLOW +20 207
#note Rob: 9D INGOT is a cute play I didn't see. REGLOW is on par with 4A HOWLS; between the two plays, I prefer to pry the board open now rather than later. In my position I can only cash in the tournament if I win this game, so volatility is my friend...especially with a blank in hand.
>Geoff: ADDEEGN I8 DEAD +34 266
#note Rob: Best play.
>Rob: ?ABIOPQ K1 QIB.A +32 239
#note Rob: Sims alongside D3 QI; I want my bingo, so I want to break up the B and P. I'd play QIBLA every time.
>Geoff: EGINRRT 2F RETIR.NG +63 329
#note Rob: The second example of Geoff playing to win the tournament as well as the game. He put down the 2H placement first, but pulled it back to avoid opening the 3x3 line and to make Row 1 bingos ever so slightly more difficult to fit.
>Rob: ?DEOOPX 1B EXOPODs +109 348
#note Rob: Unfortunately for Geoff, his defensive placement backfires in just about the worst way possible. Instead of a 54 point X-bomb retaining the blank, I launch a nuke instead. "Well, shit!" indeed!
>Geoff: CEEMNNT C3 NEM. +12 341
#note Rob: Quackle's favorite plays are G11 MEN and 5K AMEN, both attempting to set up the case E as best it can. It's possible that I can hook either play myself, but it's far from a guarantee that I'll be able to. Geoff's winning chances have swung by more than 50% since last turn, and he's now a significant underdog according to Quackle. I believe his play reflects a desire to try to counterpunch for the rest of the pre-endgame as well as to block underlaps with the X, but I'll let him speak to that.
>Rob: AAAILMY J9 AY +30 378
#note Rob: For myself, I definitely decided to go with the crouch, score, and counter approach - this was about the best draw I could've gotten here, as it allows me to score and keep pressuring Geoff while removing four of the vowels he'll need to mount a comeback.
>Geoff: CEKNOTY G11 TOCK +19 360
#note Rob: Quackle agrees - set up the Y in a lucrative spot and hope for the best. There's enough dreck in the pool that I might still struggle even if I've drawn the S.
>Rob: AAFILLM D4 FA. +33 411
#note Rob: Quackle strongly favors disrupting Geoff's S/Y setup with a play at H14. I feared a nightmare JV draw if I did so - while I'm not all that likely to be stuck with them if I draw them now, the momentum I would sacrifice could be fatal. If Geoff didn't hit something huge, my scoring pressure will force him into desperation soon.
>Geoff: ELNRUVY 15G YU +29 389
#note Rob: Geoff mentioned that he was hoping for the miracle IS draw for SILVERN.
>Rob: AILLMSW N4 SAWMILL +83 494
#note Rob: I spent some time calculating whether a J or V stick would be enough for Geoff to somehow come back, but couldn't get much closer than 25 points or so if I draw the V.
>Geoff: EJLNORV 8L JO.N +57 446
#note Geoff: Well, at least I won the tournament! Great comeback by Rob here, and well played by him throughout. Playing AMEN K5 (or RETIRING normally) might have changed the flow interestingly - that's where the game was lost. Scrabble is hard.
>Rob: D 10D ..D +8 502
#note Rob: Crazy game!
>Rob: (ELRV) +14 516
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