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#player1 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Chris_Cree: FORT 8E FORT +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEHNNY I7 DYNE +22 22
#note After looking for the bingo that wasn't there (the only 8 in this rack is HANDYMEN), I debated between FENNY E8 and this. I got obsessed with taking out out back-hooks to FORT, the leave was better than with FENNY, so I opted for DYNE. This is a good choice, but it's not best. Though the HN? leave with DYNE is stronger than HD? from FENNY, DYNE gives back L/S hooks on row 11, it sets up the hot spot at J10 (apparently not prudent even if have an H), and also gives back potential 6's to H15. FENNY doesn't do any of those things. That's why FENNY wins the sim and this choice is the runner-up, not quite 2 points down and sacrificing 0.6% winning chances.
>Chris_Cree: INZ 10F ZIN. +33 47
>Jim_Burlant: ?GHINRR 7C GRIN +14 36
#note I thought I might have missed something, but I didn't. The duck confirms it's either this or RHO F6. Nothing else is worth considering.
>Chris_Cree: ATW 11E WAT +25 72
>Jim_Burlant: ?EHINRT D9 cITHERN +77 113
#note I looked down the C column and all I saw were various air balls from C4/C5 which I rejected. After I saw WAT front hooks, I was about to put down CITHREN when I overthought it and doubted myself. Being 95% sure of CITHREN and 100% sure of CITHERN, I took no chances. CITHREN would have been better due to vowel placement. While Quackle thinks D9 bingos are best, it's the option I missed which I should have played: THONGIER C3 would have scored 74 w/o slotting the triple.
>Chris_Cree: AEENOTV 14A OVE.NEAT +76 148
#note If I play THONGIER on the previous turn, what does he do with this?
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAIIUU -AIIUU +0 113
#note Yuck! It's either my play (exch AIIUU) or exchanging 6, keeping the blank.
>Chris_Cree: HIMSS 15F SHIM +40 188
#note The second S in his rack is inferred. Chris wouldn't burn an S for only 5 more points (HIM would have scored 35) unless he was trying to unload the first.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABORTU H1 TABOURe. +82 195
#note Board vision failure. The irony is that, prior to his playing SHIM on row 15, I had expected him to take out the A column and was expecting to play ABORTUS on row 15. Except that I only saw L back-hooks to DYNE and didn't look for the B backhook on ZINE. ABORTUs plays at J9 for 99. This is a costly miss, and not because I shortchanged myself by 17 points. This play cost me the game, as you'll see in a couple of turns.
>Chris_Cree: DFOS A12 FO.D +36 224
>Jim_Burlant: ABEMOTY 13C B.AMY +60 255
#note I almost played MEATY for 54 but opted for 6 extra points to keep the pressure on. Quackle thinks this is best, but I really wonder if I should have played MEATY for 54 - even if it sacrificed the case T - to keep the B for (ZINE)B plays on the next turn?
>Chris_Cree: EKOPRSU 1E UPS.ROKE +65 289
#note If I had played ABORTUS like I should have 2 turns ago, what would he be doing here?
>Jim_Burlant: AEIOSTU 3H .UTEOS +18 273
#note No clue. W/this rack and no open R or G, I'd normally fish and leave AEIST. Problem: AEI are the three most probable tiles in a dwindling pool, only 1 N and 1 R are left, and FAIK they both may be in his rack. Since I didn't think the pool was bingo prone, I focused on defending 2J, and unloading the EOU and jumping into the tile bag. Though the S is valuable on this board, I didn't see how to defend 2J w/o burning mine. Q hates this; it thinks I should fish with 6F OUR, (presumably because it thinks I'll draw two L's so I can bingo with BASTILLE) or play 2C OUTA/AUTO. I don't like my play, but I don't find the duck's suggestions helpful, either. Not sure what I'd do if I had this turn to do again.
>Chris_Cree: EIV B10 VIE +19 308
>Jim_Burlant: AEGIILX 4L XI +38 311
#note If only I'd had these two tiles a turn ago. <>
>Chris_Cree: ADEILLN 5E ALI.NDE +32 340
#note Chris told me after the game I had blocked UNALLIED with XI. This is definitely Chris's best play - nothing else he has comes remotely close. He's 64% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEGILU C3 GULA. +14 325
#note None of my options are particularly good here; best play wins 20%, and that's 2J AA. Admiittedly that plays the pool much better than this does, with Q unseen. It never even occurred to me to keep the U - not smart for me to play it off given the Q-unfriendliness of this board.
>Chris_Cree: AAQ 4A AQ.A +28 368
>Jim_Burlant: AEGILPR A1 PIL.R +21 346
#note Right idea, wrong, execution. Chris told me post-mortem that I blocked his impending SOJA. That said, given this pool and all the unseen E's I shouldn't have been worried about protecting my case A. Much better would have been AGAPE or AGILE down the A column. That said, the consolation I can take is that, even if I'd gotten this turn right, my next draw was going to render whatever I did here moot. AGILE or AGAPE A4 top a sim.
>Chris_Cree: CLOO 11I LOCO +21 389
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEEGI K11 .EE +5 351
#note No clue, just moving tiles to end the game. I can't stop his impending J plays no matter what I put down.
>Chris_Cree: CDJSW 13J J.WS +28 417
>Jim_Burlant: AEEGI F1 .EE +7 358
>Chris_Cree: CD M3 ..C +5 422
>Jim_Burlant: AGI L8 AGI. +6 364
#note Obviously, TABOUReT was the inflection point. If I found ABORTUS, Chris still would have followed it up with FOOD and I still would have countered with BEAMY. At that point, he would have been trailing 224 - 272 and sitting on EOKPRSU with nowhere to bingo, and he would have been playing for 26 points and I'd have been at 73 - 74% winning chances.. While there's no guarantee that I wouldn't have subsequently struggled after BEAMY like I did in this game, my own board blindness is what gave him the opportunity to get into the driver's seat. Late tile struggles or not, this loss was on me.
>Jim_Burlant: (D) +4 368
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