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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Michael_Baker Michael Baker
>Joshua_Sokol: ACEEEIQ H7 QI +22 22
#note seemed too much better than exchanging to not do, as boring as it sounds.
>Michael_Baker: WZ 8G W.Z +15 15
>Joshua_Sokol: AACEEEI 9I AECIA +21 43
#note What can I infer from Michael's last play? No I? Consonant-heavy perhaps? Because this was also close with exchanging. I think I would have probably kept CEI given that Michael might not have had an I. I probably should have been more conservative here, even though AECIA is a good play after QI, since many of Michael's plays last turn would have been forced from lack of a better option, which means his rack is weaker than average. So in short I probably shouldn't have given him an out here.
>Michael_Baker: AKRT 8L KART +52 67
#note :/
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEIILV N2 VEALIE. +24 67
>Michael_Baker: DDEL 4K DED.L +16 83
>Joshua_Sokol: ADIOOUY K9 .OYAU +20 87
#note 5G AUDIO was also on my radar. usually it's better to keep DIO than YO but with the score this close the Y may come in handy to take out scoring spots. This play is definitely more variant than AUDIO, blowing the bottom of the board open, leaving the 2x2 lane alone, and keeping three times the suggested vowel ratio over consonants. AUDIO is probably best here, not by much but it probably works better against Michael.
>Michael_Baker: EGGT 10F TEGG +21 104
>Joshua_Sokol: DGIOORU 5G GUIRO +18 105
#note A more clear mistake here, missing 3I GOODI(E) for a whopping 32 points. Given how this game was going, taking the points and running was a sound plan.
>Michael_Baker: ?AHIOST 3E SHOrTIA +65 169
#note my mistake was not a mistake after all, as SHOrTIA plays for 92 after GOODI(E), 27 more than he decided to score this turn. Still looking at AECIA as my breaking point.
>Joshua_Sokol: ADELNOO H10 .OALED +27 132
#note Although opening the board is good here, I'm not far enough behind to suggest that I need the multiplicity of bingo lanes to garner a comeback. 2B ONLOAD is clearly better than this, and for some reason, despite having played ONLOADED or seen it played in the past few months I persisted to believe that it was phony. Also, GOONDA is a better play down H10. This was briefly held.
>Michael_Baker: IMO 4D MOI +17 186
>Joshua_Sokol: BNOTTUV 5B BOUT +22 154
#note Not looking great for me here. I need the X if I'm to come back without a bingo, but it's not worth playing an extra tile to go for it and take away from my leave. Same goes for trying to draw an S and a blank to aid in my bingo prospects. I figured this could force a block of A(BOUT) often enough that it would overcome the downside of the play; the leave and inferior score compared to just TUB for 24.
>Michael_Baker: DEEP 2G DEEP +29 215
#note Instead Michael decides to continue to throw caution to the rain given my previous play! At least the X spot is gone now
>Joshua_Sokol: CENOTVY 9B CONVEY +34 188
#note A good draw here allows me to dig for some useful tiles while scoring nicely and giving little back. Quackle prefers me playing L12 ENVY, but given that Michael likely doesn't have any of AAU, and is more likely than average to hold a premium tile such as an S or a ? after such an aggressive play of DEEP, I have to disagree with Quackle. COVEY would usually be better too, but Quackle concurs that there are 5 N's to duplicate in the remaining unseen pool and therefore the N's value is negative.
>Michael_Baker: FINR 6A FIRN +22 237
>Joshua_Sokol: EHIJMNT 12J J.M +24 212
#note A really silly mistake again here, missing the obvious 1H HM. Pesky blank blindness made me miss H(Er) H1!
I was choosing between J(A)M and H(A)J and it looked like the H would be worth more than 2 points given the juicy B9 spot for (C)H words. But it's not quite worth keeping for 17 points over HM 1H...
>Michael_Baker: IX A6 .IX +39 276
>Joshua_Sokol: EHINNNT 12D HENN. +16 228
#note The draw from hell!!! It was only a matter of time before I started drawing N's, but I did not expect to draw them after playing off two tiles! I now unfortunately make the game-losing mistake of missing NINTH over my rack, which plays nicely at 11B, keeping a good leave for both the tile pool and the board. Better than INT surely.
>Michael_Baker: ?LNRRSS 14H .RNS +17 293
#note This is what I assumed his leave had to be, at the speed at which he played (E)RNS, but he would have had SNaRL(E)RS! Really any leave he might have had that involved S? seems to have a playable bingo in it.
>Joshua_Sokol: INRSTTW 11A TWIST +25 253
#note I'm down 65 and Michael has S?. Seemed pretty hopeless, but let's do the math anyway. I need to draw into a bingo that still wins the game for me. If I play 4 tiles, he could simply press the slow-roll button and play off one tile, which I calculated would be a simple way to ensure victory. I can score up to 135 points in two turns, which would bring me to 363, but my average score after my play and a bingo is around 110. If he plays his cards right, he can actually easily beat that with a timely play on row 1. I can hope for leaving a specific tile in the bag that would prevent Michael from scoring enough, but that's more or less a pipe dream.
I have to draw into a bingo next turn. RN looked like a better combination for both spots on the board, O8 and 15A. I am just about never hitting row 1 with what I know from his last play.
It's possible he will block one of the two spots next turn, but only in specific instances where his tracking is perfect and he knows I can't hit row 1. Otherwise I am likely free to bingo out.
My chances looked pretty grim after a 4-tile play, as I said, since Michael can easily outscore me in multiple ways.The biggest advantage of a 4-tile play is seemingly that I am much less likely to draw FP, PB or BF, but actually there are a surprising amount of bingos using those combinations at 15A, and even (T)URBOFAN at O8!
Also, playing 5 tiles means spending my S, which at first looks like a really dumb idea, but as I will try to demonstrate is actually totally fine.
if I play TWIT at 13B, I can hit REASONE(D), UNERASE(D) and SUBORNE(D). I am likely to draw 3 vowels here, and just as likely to draw 4 vowels as I am 3 vowels and one consonant. Two consonants are unlikely. So that looks decent.
But then say I play TWIST 11A instead. I can now hit PREBOUN(D), PROFANE(D), UNFEARE(D) and UNBEARE(D).
I have no draws at O8 after TWIT, but TURBOFAN is possible after TWIST.
After WRIT 13B I can hit UNBASTE(D), ABSENTE(D), STOPBAN(D), FASTENE(D), UNSEATE(D), SOFTENE(D) and UNPOSTE(D). Wow, that's a lot. Already beginning to rethink!
After WRIST I can only hit UNABATE(D). It did seem much more likely that TWIST was better than WRIST.
After TWIN 13B I can hit BREASTE(D), BROASTE(D), TRAPESE(D), PASTORE(D), PASTURE(D), FORESTE(D), POSTERE(D) and POSTURE(D). (T)UATERAS, (T)ABORETS, (T)ARTUFES, (T)ARTUFOS and (T)REETOPS also play.
LONG STORY SHORT!
I might have misjudged this position and put too much emphasis on the fear of Michael playing one tile and outrunning my bingo. I think it would have been a better idea to simply try with TWIN or WRIT (TWIN is better it seems) and see if Michael plays a perfect pre-endgame!
Or maybe I should have just played this and made no judgment call from Michael's last play at all. A better player than I would have seen that his possible leaves from that play all indicate a missed bingo, and then this position would get even more complicated!!!
>Michael_Baker: ?LPSU 1E LoUPS +37 330
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEFNOR 13B FAENA +27 280
#note FRAENA. I didn't even thihk about what this left Michael. -19
>Michael_Baker: BER 14A REB +24 354
>Michael_Baker: (OR) +4 358
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