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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Carl_Johnson Carl Johnson
>Joshua_Sokol: ?HINNTX H4 XaNTHIN +98 98
#note First letter drawn of the tournament: the blank.
This happens way too often to me to be a coincidence.
I froze for half a minute here because I thought I had to be making XANTHIN up, but no, there it was in my mind palace.
>Carl_Johnson: IVY 10F VI.Y +18 18
#note First, Carl placed this at 6F after a couple of minutes, then switched it to 10F. Carl is a master strategist, so by this I understood he thought it was more likely that he would be able to come back setting the bottom right of the board to stay open all game. He didn't want to let me score with XANTHINE either. He had an E but apparently no valid words that hit a double. This runs into trouble if (VINY)L comes down, but otherwise I like how it protects the board from being scored on and creates a lane at 11I.
>Joshua_Sokol: AAAAAKO G3 KOA +22 120
#note By this point I had written "everything is a-ok" on my scoresheet to calm myself down. I am in very good shape here no matter what I do. If I can avoid a bingo next turn, playing through and keeping the ridiculous AAAA combo is very strong. This play did many things right. It blocked the N, A and X and prevented Carl from easily reopening up the left side. The issue is that the T in XANTHIN remained intact. My main goal this turn was doing my best to keep Carl from getting a bingo down. If I couldn't do that or if other factors were too huge to simply focus on that (i.e if I kept UUUU instead of AAAA), I would have exchanged. This is a better play than G4 OKA even though OKA blocks the most of the T, since overlaps basically can't occur.
I couldn't quite guess what Carl had on his rack, but it didn't seem great. An L is certainly in his range, but that means he's also less likely to have an S since having LS he would play VI(N)YL more often than not. Really it seemed that KOA didn't block too much stuff he could had; probably just an average amount of bingo defense. This reduces his chances by almost 10% and mine by 20% over exchanging keeping an A, which seems to be the most logical exchange here. It only reduces his scoring by 5 points, but that's also decent.
Mostly one has to figure out if Carl's change of plan mid-play indicates that he really wants to leave the ANT open. If he does, it's slightly better to play up there than usual. Quackle thinks KOA is 5 points worse than exchanging. I really felt good about making this play, since if I could avoid a hit for one turn only I would be in very good shape. I did think I had more time, and that was perhaps fatal.
>Carl_Johnson: ?EEIOPS 8H .OSEPIpE +95 113
#note Held and released.
>Joshua_Sokol: AAAAOSS -AAAO +0 120
#note and would you believe my draw? It's not a good enough draw to bail me out of AAAA, but it's really good for future turns. It's far easier to use the hook on XANTHIN with an S than it is with an E. It's intriguing to see that the preference may be slightly in favor of AS over ASS here. AS may be slightly more balanced! It's close, but I definitely prefer my line over throwing an S back.
>Carl_Johnson: EJU N6 JU.E +26 139
>Joshua_Sokol: AAABOSS 11H SOBA +34 154
#note and would you believe I pulled two more A's out of a 3/70 pool? Very cool draws here. From hereon out it looks like it's going to be any man's game. Let's get it on!
>Carl_Johnson: GOW 12I WOG +23 162
>Joshua_Sokol: AAAEORS 13G AREA +22 176
#note 13J AA is another interesting idea. It increased my chances of a bingo next turn by a whopping 20%, even though WOG implies consonants. I considered it, but I didn't want to push too hard for a bingo at this stage. I liked scoring more, staying ahead and seeing what was in store for later. I didn't put enough thought into this turn, but I still have a slight preference for my play. Quackle believes that AA is .07% winninger*. Super super close!
>Carl_Johnson: AEGRZ 14C GRAZE +37 199
#note "93 points", Carl said when he came up to me telling me about the mistake he made in our game.
Incredible!
>Joshua_Sokol: AEINORS 6B RAISON.E +70 246
>Carl_Johnson: Q 9G Q. +42 241
>Joshua_Sokol: FLLORUU D12 FU.L +16 262
#note Here is where I started to crack. I didn't see FLU at 5C here, which is clearly correct. I waffled through K4 FOUL(E)R, D10 FLOU(R) and this for many minutes, also trying to find another, better play. Nothing more to be said here. This is a 7-point mistake.
>Carl_Johnson: ADFT 9K FAT.D +25 266
>Joshua_Sokol: GILLORU C1 LIGUL.R +18 280
#note Or 15A GRI(L)L, if I want to slowplay this game. It was important to dig into the bag here for better tiles, despite this giving a lot back. I'm not in good shape here regardless.
>Carl_Johnson: ACDEL 1A CA.LED +30 296
>Joshua_Sokol: CEMNNOY C11 CON.E +27 307
>Carl_Johnson: ARSW 4A WA.R +22 318
#note I believe I either inferred or spotted an S here. I believe it's the former. For some reason I figured that he had to have the S to be playing so short. Bad to infer this at this stage, because it's just not true.
>Joshua_Sokol: EHMMNVY 7M H.M +28 335
#note Now I'm actually doing alright. This saves I1 ENVY for next turn and other ways to score decently on a board that's tough to do anything on.
>Carl_Johnson: BDI 15A BI..D +27 345
>Joshua_Sokol: EMNTUVY I1 ENVY +27 362
#note At this stage, the biggest threat is the S. I need to score here and also hope for the S or something that can counter it next turn. Things are not looking well but this looks like my best chance to win.
>Carl_Johnson: IP H1 PI +26 371
>Joshua_Sokol: EMOTTTU 14J TOTEM +26 388
#note basically done for here I think. I don't think it's of any use for me to leave one in the bag with 14J TE or TO. But perhaps I win more often. Did I blow this game on this turn? I think it's tough to say, but I definitely mistracked and had thought there was a W in the pool instead of a T. What would you do? I also considered playing B6 (R)OUT and hope he didn't have the N, but that seemed pretty pointless, as he can still outscore me pretty easily.
>Carl_Johnson: IINORST 15K NORIS +29 400
#note -1 to either 15L IRON or 15K ROSIN, but this gets the job done and Carl knew it.
I was about to challenge this when he laid it down, but quickly realized it was NORI-S, not NO-RIS!
>Joshua_Sokol: DEETU M11 DET.. +12 400
>Carl_Johnson: IT E11 IT +10 410
#note A fantastic game to start things off. Disappointed in myself for missing FLU earlier on. That should not happen. It's a 3!
>Carl_Johnson: (EU) +4 414
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