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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Dean_Saldanha Dean Saldanha
>Joshua_Sokol: AEERTTW H7 TEW +12 12
#note Much to consider here.
WETTER or WATTER: WATTER leaves better, and takes a front S. WETTER takes a back S and gives back one fewer floater to play through. The benefits of WATTER outweigh those of WETTER, as if I'm going to play long here, I can't play scared.
WATER is midway between playing long or playing short. I think if my rack was AEENRTW instead, I might play WATER over WANTER because EN looks a bit better than ET. WATER gives back a few more points than WATTER. WATER is really only comparable to WATTER because of the better options it leaves me with for next turn.
WET and TEW have much better leaves than the 5 and 6-letter plays. The increased leave value itself is good for 10 points over WATER and 12 points over WATTER. That leaves two extra points to make up for, and the increased defense makes up for 5 points over WATTER and 8 points over WATER. Knowing this the choice here becomes clear.
Between TEW and WET, I figured that WETA was just as good if not better for Dean than it was for me on average, even though I was keeping one of the 9 remaining A's. I knew that it decreased my chances of scoring or getting a bingo to play TEW, but in the long run, not giving Dean the A hook seems like ot would pay its dividends.
In a 4-ply simulation, 10000 iterations later, TEW has a valuation of .06 higher than WET, as with static play on both ends my leave of AERT will be able to take control of the game ever so slightly better than the same leave following WET.
>Dean_Saldanha: ABO G7 ABO +20 20
>Joshua_Sokol: AENPRRT I4 PARTNER +77 89
>Dean_Saldanha: EFO J2 FOE +18 38
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEGINX 2J .AXING +34 123
#note K3 XENIA was the only thing in this position that I didn't see. It's the only play that makes sense here and scores better than FAXING. I figured that H1 was a hotspot, but that Dean was definitely going for a bingo here, so I didn't want to give him a better bingo lane than her already had. If I figured he was likely to score well at H1 I would have played ANGA or NAGA there to both block the spot and set up APEX plays for next turn. XENIA makes it even easier to use the H1 hotspot with E(PEE), but once again that isn't really an issue. XENIA also creates another hotspot in L1, and I don't know how likely Dean is to have another O after FOE (he would only have another O if he had another E right?), so XENIA once again fails to scare me with the options is gives back. Quackle's assessment that XENIA gives 3 more immediate points to Dean is not correct, and since FAXING sims 3 points higher than XENIA, I have to wonder if XENIA was better than FAXING. FAXING is probably a tad worse for Dean's range, as he can score and leave well if he hasn't hit his bingo after FAXING with plays through the X, but nothing really works through the G given his bingo range. Then again if he hasn't hit his bingo after my play, XENIA gives him overlaps from L4 that are worse for me than plays through the X in FAXING. So I think FAXING is still the right play here.
>Dean_Saldanha: ?EEEIRT O2 .lEETIER +77 115
#note L1 E(X)ERTIvE! I guess he drew two E's last turn.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?ADEEES L1 E.ED +26 149
#note I started to get lazy here. I doubted EASELED, missed SEAWEED and DECEASE! This is still just as good as playing a bingo, but I should have been able to weigh my options more than intuitively.
>Dean_Saldanha: CDOSU 11I SCUDO +26 141
>Joshua_Sokol: ?ADEKPS N8 PAKS +35 184
#note I wondered if SCUDOS* was good, and I shouldn't have played it given my lack of knowledge. I missed H1 SPEAK and only saw K2 (A)PEAK a bit late. I also missed another bingo, 10A KEyPADS! I should play H1 SPEAK for sure. Seeing SPEAK or APEAK would have helped me not phony here. Patience!
>Dean_Saldanha: ATV M7 TAV +26 167
#note Dean held but rustiness prevented him from pulling the trigger on the challenge. Also probably something to do with me giving him a good play/him having another S
>Joshua_Sokol: ?DELOOW K2 .WED +29 213
#note DEWOOLs!!!! I also chickened out of WALED in the same spot as AWED. I should be losing this game. Inferring an S makes this and WALED a lot worse, and I should just play the bingo to get rid of the bingo lane.
>Dean_Saldanha: GSUV H1 VUGS +36 203
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AELOOZ J11 .LOZE +36 249
#note COLZA...?
>Dean_Saldanha: HTY 15H TH.Y +30 233
>Joshua_Sokol: ?ACINOU 14B INOCUlA +72 321
#note failed to realize AZONIC still played! Also COqUINA was missed.
>Dean_Saldanha: JT 1K J.T +28 261
>Joshua_Sokol: DHIILMR E11 MIL.H +24 345
#note closing down the S on ABOS and the lane I just opened should be gone next turn. Had to be creative to get this board under control. Otherwise I can just tread water with 13A IMID which I also considered. With a random rack that makes sense, with an inferred S I don't think so. But wait why do I think he has an S? hm maybe misjudged this.
>Dean_Saldanha: BFO D10 FOB +28 289
>Joshua_Sokol: DEGILQR 13B QI +37 382
>Dean_Saldanha: I 6N I. +4 293
>Joshua_Sokol: DEGILNR 3B LEDGIN. +22 404
#note this seemed good because there were no Ps or Fs left. But I did wonder whether it was actually a word. It's not. Come on Dean!!!! :P
>Dean_Saldanha: AEILNRS E1 EN.RAILS +68 361
>Joshua_Sokol: AIMNRRU C5 MURRAIN +71 475
#note lol
>Joshua_Sokol: (AOOY) +14 489
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