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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEEIOY 8H AIYEE +18 18
#note I autopiloted here and laid down an exchange six. I was 1 second away from hitting the clock when I stopped myself. This is bad news, as Jackson can now easily infer that I have two vowels on my leave.
>Jackson_Smylie: AABCENN 7G NAB +18 18
#note Many places to play NAB here. Jackson chose an interesting one. I think I would have played this at 7H instead. Sets up a better spot to play a bingo ending in E and doesn't give anything more for me to work with, as well as blocking the 2x2 threat.
Jackson: I think the 7H placement is fine. I know Josh likes to be in control of the board, and NAB makes it a bit more volatile (I also thought SNAB* was valid). BAN is 4 more, but I know he kept 2 vowels, and an O and A are very likely (in fact he kept both!). 7H is probably better.
>Joshua_Sokol: ADIOPSV K5 VID.O +18 36
#note nothing seemed particularly appetizing here. The speed at which Jackson played NAB said to me that he didn't have an S, but this play ensured I could hook mine somewhere if indeed he did. Also, NAB could have been a Z setup, so perhaps I should have thought about that as well. Luckily Jackson did not have that up his sleeve.
>Jackson_Smylie: AACCENX 6J X. +25 43
#note Jackson: keeps things very tight and makes scoring difficult
>Joshua_Sokol: AIOPSUU -OUU +0 36
#note that last move threw his range all over the place. I don't really have any inference to work with now, so I'll just keep the leave that seemed best. I also considered playing 10J PSOAI but my position was just so horrible after that. I did not on the other hand consider 10G PIOUS, which wins a short sim by a small margin. I don't like that play.
But I think I should have kept APS again. I have a hard time going nowhere within one move. I always think there's a better option than exchanging keeping the exact same tiles you kept last turn.
>Jackson_Smylie: AACCENO 6I O..C +18 61
#note interesting choice, keeping things bereft of scoring opportunities. I like it. No need to panic just yet for Jackson.
Jackson: CAVA and CONCAVE ae more standard, but I saw no reason he has an S too often here, and this makes it really tough for him.
>Joshua_Sokol: AGHIPSS 10K SHAG +22 58
#note sigh... I missed SIGH, luckily that takes a T and I shouldn't play that, even for 4 more points and a better leave! I rejected SHIP for 3 more, because, and I must repeat this all the time, G's suck. This isn't space travel. SHIP is ahead by .1 equity on a long sim. But I can attribute that to the possibility of a ZA_ bomb, which is completely outside of Jackson's range here.
>Jackson_Smylie: AACEINU N9 I.UANA +14 75
#note looks like he failed to shake my U away from his fingers. Rough draw for Jackson puts me in great shape.
(G)UAIAC would defintely be better here if it didn't protect the S hook on SHAG extremely well. Jackson wants to minimize the damage here, and allowing him likely access to one of the triples does that quite well. After GUAIAC I am more likely to play to the C and retain my S-hook.
I think most people would still say GUAIAC is better, but I'm not convinced by that nor by Quackle favouring it by 3 points. I think this was an enlightening play by Jackson who is no longer in very good shape.
Jackson: GUAIAC also works well, cause now I give him good options when he doesn't bingo (and SHAG can certainly keep scoring stuff like AMS, OPS type leaves). I am in a pretty rough position here, so I'm going all in to keep it dynamic. I also considered (D)UCI, but that only limits the S hook a bit, and AAEN is really rough here.
>Joshua_Sokol: EEIPRSU 13H RESUPI.E +72 130
#note Alas, GUAIAC would have worked out far better in this particular gruesome outcome
>Jackson_Smylie: ?CEQSTY 12M Q.T +27 102
#note There are many options in this position. O11 TY(E)ES stands out, as it scores 50 points and sets the Q up very nicely if Jackson draws a T (M9 Q(A)T would then form all valid words), so the Q leave isn't terrible.
On the other hand, the Q is still a liability on this board, and scoring 27 is definitely pretty decent for what one could expect. I suppose Jackson could hope to draw an I for QI as well as a T for Q(A)T, but all things considered unloading the Q now is much more flexible. He isn't so far behind after all. CESY? can score and bingo very well and don't require specific draws to work out.
So with that being said, I think TYEES would have been a bit too cute, and QAT looks better. 15L CYST does worse than TYEES since it scores fewer and accomplishes just about the same thing. H10 QwE(R)TY is interesting, but 54 isn't really enough at this stage of the game to get rid of a blank for. Even though Jackson now retains a case S, keeping the blank is very strong, and disrupting one of the big S hooks on the board is counterproductive, since the remaining one is also a D, F, N and T hook.
Jackson: I debated for many minutes between TYEES and QAT (also stuff like CYST, but there is no Q setup, and I sorta want that hook here). I draw a T or I just over half the time after TYEES, which makes the CQ? leave fairly palatable. I still really like the S here, and I bingo fairly often (And when I do, it's a monster), so I settled on QAT. a quackle sim agrees.
>Joshua_Sokol: EGINOTU H12 G.UE +21 151
#note was all set to play a very aggressive L12 U(P)O, but luckily I can play something a bit safer now. If I want to be super safe I can play H10 OUT(R)IG. I liked the aggressivity of G(R)UE and the fact that the G will remain open for a while for me if I need it.
Being offense-oriented in spots like these is a recent development of mine, and it will probably continue after this experience.
Jackson: I like OUTRIG more here, cause it's in josh's favour to score more, and blocking AAS counts for a bit (if the O column gets taken care of next turn, he's in a decent shape).
Josh: Quackle prefers OUT(R)IG by almost 2 equity points. I did not see it, so I will refrain from further analysis.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?CEFSSY O5 FYCES +41 143
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AINOTZ 15A bOTANIZ. +101 252
#note He was supposed to be in good shape after FYCES keeping S?. My draw had other plans.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?DKNPST I13 .ND +24 167
#note Horrendous draw. I assume he missed TSK 15M, but (E)ND might be better anyway.
Jackson: I did in fact miss TSK, but no way i'm playing that. I have the case S and ?, the iguanas hook will be very fruitful with my KPST? leave.
>Joshua_Sokol: EILLORW 14B WILE +30 282
>Jackson_Smylie: ?HKOPST 15L POSH +44 211
>Joshua_Sokol: ELMOOOR N2 ROMEO +30 312
#note almost missed this and was going to go for a much more volatile ROOM or LOOM. Although I'm not quite ahead enough to prefer a big overlap comeback with the J or something. I think this is better though. If he can't hit me next turn I am in great shape.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?AAKLTT 13C KAT +34 245
>Joshua_Sokol: DEFGLOW M1 LOWED +41 353
>Jackson_Smylie: ?AIJLRT - +0 245
#note Jackson said he would have challenged even if I didn't hesitate a bit to play LOWED as I ended up doing. I thought that he wouldn't have challenged, but after thinking about what his rack might have been I realized that blocking RAJ, TAJ and JAR are really bad for Jackson, so the absolute instinct to challenged made a lot more sense.
Jackson: Yeah, I was fairly confident in LOWED, maybe 75% or 80%, but it's pretty dire to play AJI or JILT or something, and JAR would be so helpful.
>Joshua_Sokol: BEEFGIT O1 BEG +28 381
>Jackson_Smylie: ?AIJLRT 9F JILT +23 268
#note Jackson: at least I can hope to hit something to the L, but vowels are scarce and I kind of need them to hit that lane. AJI keeps all consos which sucks. I also thought SNAB* was valid, so I figured I had a couple lanes to work with...
>Joshua_Sokol: EFINNRT F9 .INN +13 394
#note I am setting up a D hook here, but sneakily leaving only 5 in the bag, so if he overreaches and hits a 6 he can no longer hit a bingo. The leave also seemed quite balanced for the remaining pool, even with the risk of duplication of the R. K12 F(U)N may have worked out better, that's the best leave. I feel like I tried to look for a place to play FN too. Hmm. FUN is probably too greedy.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?ADELMR F1 MEDLARs +68 336
#note and now SNAB* finally comes into play!!!!!!!
>Joshua_Sokol: AEFRRTT 1C FRA.ER +36 430
>Jackson_Smylie: IORUV 3C VOI. +16 352
>Joshua_Sokol: TT 5E T.T +6 436
>Joshua_Sokol: (RU) +4 440
#note Jackson: awesomely thought provoking game!
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