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#player1 Michael_Fagen Michael Fagen
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Michael_Fagen: ADEJRU 8C ADJURE +32 32
>Joshua_Sokol: DDIILLN I8 DILL +22 22
>Michael_Fagen: AGU E8 .UGA +24 56
>Joshua_Sokol: DEINOVW G5 OVE.WIND +70 92
>Michael_Fagen: EIIV D4 IVIE. +18 74
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AAEIRS 6F A.IARiES +64 156
#note I wonder how many iterations it would take for AVIARIES to have a high win% than AtRESIA after +300. He basically has to beat me by 330 this game to win the tournament. I am 1220 spread ahead so it's more like 306, but you get the point.
I could give a sermon about how the board is far more manageable after my bingo than after the clearly superior 13C AtRESIA, but really I just completely missed the S hook on the play I just made, rather thinking that my bingo blocked the S hook on DILL, so I couldn't play a 7. Was I tired? Yeah, but mostly very, very dumb.
Also A(V)ARIcES is better than AVIARIES.
>Michael_Fagen: AEFLT 12A FETAL +37 111
>Joshua_Sokol: EKNOQST B10 KN.ES +38 194
#note I was going to block every triple-triple he opened, immediately. I had noticed my mistake of playing AVIARIES here and I was sort of on tilt.
>Michael_Fagen: EIOPRST L4 PO.TRIES +72 183
>Joshua_Sokol: AEOQRST 4C Q. +11 205
#note C2 QAT obviously. Way too cute.
>Michael_Fagen: ORU A12 .OUR +25 208
>Joshua_Sokol: AELORST H12 ORAL +19 224
#note Really no need to do this. I was frustrated, but I should just slowplay with 5K L(O)O. Definitely.
>Michael_Fagen: AHNTU K9 HAUNT +27 235
>Joshua_Sokol: AEOSTTY 8L .YOT +21 245
#note Now it's OK to open, it makes sense, but M3 TOY(S) for 2 more might make more sense. I liked forking bingo lanes here.
>Michael_Fagen: OX 5J OX. +38 273
>Joshua_Sokol: AACENST 15E ANA.ECTS +61 306
#note really bad miss of CASTANE(T). I knew it and I think I would have played it if I had seen it. Blegh :(
>Michael_Fagen: GH C7 H.G +22 295
>Joshua_Sokol: BDEIMMN O5 MIN.ED +9 315
#note I had a tell here. That's why I made this otherwise brutal play. I was pretty sure I was blocking something.
>Michael_Fagen: ?EEIOPT N8 .PE +16 311
#note I blocked (O)PTIOnEE. Michael is still in OK shape here. I might have played F2 PIET(A) to create a new lane.
>Joshua_Sokol: BFMORYZ D11 Z.RF +27 342
#note 5F F(O)B is interesting here. I think I might prefer this for timing and scoring, but I don't really know how to analyze this 5-in-the-bag situation. What FOB does is that it creates two good spots for my Z, setting up ZOM(BI) and retaining D11 M(A)ZY. However, F(O)B has one setback. The pool contains a natural word that FOB also sets up that wouldn't be possible without it. And Michael is much more likely than usual to have that word based on my bingo tiles inference from last turn.
If Michael plays CENO(BI)T(E) I am dead. The upside is that F(O)B does block COTIn(I)N(E) and rEIGN(I)T(E), which will also basically lose me the game then and there.
It seems that the tile he is least likely to have here is the C based on his previous play. COPE or PICE may have come down instead at N2, but also if I think he had a bingo the CP combination is not all that likely.
Given that, it looks like REIGNITE and CENOBITE are equally likely, because he just needs ENT + I? or ENT + O? for each respective word. But given that I cannot realistically block CENOBITE after FOB but I can block REIGNITE and COTININE after ZARF, I think it's better to play ZARF here.
More analysis on this move would be greatly appreciated! Let me know what you think. Quackle likes FOB by a few percentage points.
>Michael_Fagen: ?BCEIOT F2 CEIB. +19 330
#note He had CENO(BI)T(E)!! I just worked out what his rack was based on his last move, so don't say I'm hindsight biased, because I didn't know until after I annotated the last move!
This doesn't seem like it ever wins, but it gets Michael pretty close...
>Joshua_Sokol: BGMNOWY 13K .OWNY +22 364
#note I had around 8 minutes left for this endgame. I used almost all of it. First I retracked. Second I looked at Michael's best play. Something to the C was 14 points, nothing looked any better. Next, I saw how close that made the score, so I recounted every single play. The scores added up, and so then I calculated. I saw 13K (T)OWY, and that looked like my best play that I was sure of. But it tied. So I spent the rest of my time looking for something better, and the only thing that I came up with was (T)OWNY, a word that I have checked many times, but still can't remember if it's valid. I knew TOWNIE was good, and TOWNIES was plural.
In the end, I figured that I was winning the tournament anyway, and that to choke an endgame and tie instead of win would make me feel worse than choking an endgame by playing a phony to go for the win. And Michael still had to challenge!
>Michael_Fagen: ?EIOT - +0 330
#note seeing no win, Michael challenges. The walk of fame or the walk of shame? It was a coin flip, and I won it.
>Joshua_Sokol: BGM 14G B.M +15 379
>Michael_Fagen: ?EIOT 8A rE....... +51 381
>Michael_Fagen: ?EIOT -- -51 330
#note smart to go for the win here. If I challenge this unsuccessfully, Michael wins the game. But once again, instead of the sure outcome, I went for the one that I would feel better about. Normally you should not challenge this play in this context, because it's the only way you can lose. I am not a normal Scrabble player. I will take the moral victory over the sure victory.
>Joshua_Sokol: G 5F ..G +9 388
>Joshua_Sokol: (EIOT?) +8 396
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