| Player 1 |
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#player1 Noah Noah
#player2 Rafi Rafi
>Noah: AGIILOU -GIIOU +0 0
#note AGIL is apparently better.
>Rafi: EEFJMUV 8G VUM +16 16
>Noah: AFLLPRR H7 F.RL +7 7
>Rafi: EEEFJTX 10G F.EX +30 46
>Noah: AAELPRY 11C PLAYA +25 32
#note Didn't think of playing off AY. FAY looks good here. Even if Rafi overlaps he will likely give me another lane on the right, and I also have my original lane on the left. Didn't like the REAL leave of PYA that much post-PYA, which is why I did PLAYA instead.
>Rafi: EEEJQTT E10 Q.T +12 58
>Noah: AEEIINR 12C EA.EN +29 61
#note PIE has some nice properties here -- Rafi has a hard time blocking and will almost inevitably give me a decent opening if he plays at the bottom left. Sims best, makes sense. Many options!
>Rafi: EEEJOOT 13A JOE +30 88
>Noah: AIILNRS A13 .IN +30 91
>Rafi: BEEOSTU F4 BUTEO +18 106
>Noah: AEIILRS J10 .I +9 100
>Rafi: EGIINSZ 13G SEIZING +96 202
#note Probably a bit better to do 14C SEIZING
>Noah: AEILORS L7 AILERO.S +68 168
>Rafi: AAEEEER M3 AREAE +15 217
>Noah: DEGIPST N9 DIGEST +38 206
>Rafi: CEEHNRV O4 CHEVRE +54 271
>Noah: LNOOOPU L2 UPON +22 228
>Rafi: ?DGNNSU 14C DUNG +17 288
#note I think the big question here is whether or not Noah left the Y, which is a bit hard to quantify. By random chance, he has it 7/27 so slightly more than a quarter of the time, so if you include a portion of setups in Noah's range, then perhaps Y frequency jumps to around 50%? What's tricky here is that there aren't many strong blocks... I strongly considered DUNGy/yUPON which crushes the sim if I infer a Y, but loses the sim by a similar margin if I infer nothing (which DOES still include some Y's). One issue is that playing DUNGy forces Noah to actually think, whereas letting him have a Y play saves him precious time and puts the clock back on me in what now will be a very close game. The pool is not very bingo prone aside from the blank (no E's, BCHKMWWY unseen) and on this board with NS as a flexible leave, I should be able to hold him off frequently. Deciding what % Noah has the Y is really the key factor here... if it's 60-70% I think DUNGy is clearly the right play. If it's 40% or less, then letting him have the Y spot is probably ok? But as the frequency approaches 50% it seems like a much tougher decision. Such an unusual position!
>Noah: CDILOOY 1H DOILY +53 281
>Rafi: ?BIKNST 5E B.NK +20 308
>Noah: CHMOORW 15D MOOCH +57 338
>Rafi: ?AAIRST 2D AnTIARS +69 377
>Noah: ?AIORTW 1A WRIT +27 365
>Rafi: DTW 10L .D.T +20 397
#note Dang! Thought I had the win.
>Noah: ?AO I5 OgA. +23 388
>Noah: (W) +8 396
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