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#player1 Michael_Fagen Michael Fagen
#player2 Morris_Greenberg Morris Greenberg
>Michael_Fagen: ELOO 8H OLEO +8 8
>Morris_Greenberg: ADITUVY 9K YAUD +14 14
#note This is a bad play naively. IVY 7F is 10-11 equity higher. However, I saw that Michael tends to rely on bingos, and opening both sides of the board for that seemed to be unideal here. Additionally, it is likely here that he left three 1 pointers, and probably 2 vowels, so I can sacrifice some points here in the short term without losing much of a lead often. I am probably wrong, but I doubt this is 11 points worse.
>Michael_Fagen: AEGIRU N6 GAU.IER +15 23
>Morris_Greenberg: AIOORTV I5 VIO.ATOR +63 77
>Michael_Fagen: HM O7 HM +38 61
>Morris_Greenberg: ?ABHNPT M7 PH.T +33 110
>Michael_Fagen: RTTU 11G TR.UT +10 71
>Morris_Greenberg: ?ABENNQ G9 QA. +22 132
#note Quackle much prefers N(I)QAB. To me, Michael seems like he's keeping something like ERT, and I thought that blocking these two lanes was more important than blocking the V and I. Quackle says with that inference, Michael bingos 5% more often with QA(T) than N(I)QAB next turn, and averages 3 more points per turn overall on average. Maybe I'm underrating 7s that end in O (for OPAH hook), but I am very confused by this result.
>Michael_Fagen: DDEIR O11 REDID +29 100
>Morris_Greenberg: ?BEINNN 6F BEN.N +15 147
#note I knew this was phony, but it's such a good phony. (R)ENIN actually sims pretty close, but I prefer this.
>Michael_Fagen: AEFL 5D LEAF +23 123
>Morris_Greenberg: ?AINRWZ 10F Z. +31 178
#note Quackle suggests (R)AWIN, or AWN 4D. All 3 look good.
>Michael_Fagen: ABF 4C FAB +24 147
>Morris_Greenberg: ?AINRWW 7E WAW +31 209
#note WINdWAR(D)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
>Michael_Fagen: JO 3B JO +28 175
>Morris_Greenberg: ?GIILNR N14 LI +11 220
#note I missed (V)IGIL, but both seem reasonable. It is fine to leave this lane open because I'd likely bingo back right above any bingo Michael plays.
>Michael_Fagen: EI 5I .IE +14 189
>Morris_Greenberg: ?GINNRY E7 .RY +9 229
#note VIE screamed fish to me, so I want to groom my rack without giving easy bingo spots. I missed L11 YIN to do that more effectively.
>Michael_Fagen: AIMNS 12C MAINS +27 216
>Morris_Greenberg: ??GINNT 13B GIN +18 247
>Michael_Fagen: EEP 4K PEE +14 230
>Morris_Greenberg: ??CNNTT A12 CaNT +28 275
#note I don't love telegraphing the blank here, but T(AL)C D3 is enough worse that I went with it.
>Michael_Fagen: EGIV 8A GIVE. +30 260
>Morris_Greenberg: ?DNOOTU 3I DUOTONe +79 354
#note This is a super tough position, and I didn't have a ton of time to figure it out. I wasn't even sure if bingoing is right here, because it empties the bag and if Michael bingoes out, then I probably lose because I picked up the X. Additionally, CALIX and CAREX are 64 point plays, and suddenly that 94 point lead doesn't look as safe even if Michael cannot bingo in some situations.
Quackle suggests DUOTONe 14D. That blocks most of his binoges. It also prefers OUTDO 2C, to not empty the bag. I straight up missed NUTwOOD as well, which is a better equity version of the DUOTONe I played since the X counterplays are much weaker.
>Michael_Fagen: CEEIKLR 2F LICE +11 271
>Morris_Greenberg: AEOSSSX O1 AX.S +33 387
#note Hilarious draw. #Luckbox.
>Michael_Fagen: EKR N1 KE. +38 309
#note KE(I)R B6.
>Morris_Greenberg: EOSS 14A .OSES +24 411
>Morris_Greenberg: (R) +2 413
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