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#player1 Rafi_Stern Rafi Stern
#player2 Noah Noah
>Rafi_Stern: IQ H7 QI +22 22
>Noah: BHIINNO I6 BIN +20 20
>Rafi_Stern: LPY J4 PLY +31 53
>Noah: HIINOOR 4H OR.IN +16 36
#note (P)OI, HI(PLY), (P)OORI, (P)ION are the other options here, and they all sim better than ORPIN, in that order.
>Rafi_Stern: DEEFFSU 9D EFFUSED +85 138
#note Noah: I was pretty sure (80-90%?) this was good but thought it was worth challenging given my poor position. I didn't actually carry out the calculation though.
>Noah: EHHIOUY - +0 36
>Rafi_Stern: CGNPRTU 8A CURT +24 162
>Noah: EHHIOUY 3K HOY +25 61
#note Liked this play given the score -- seemed like this kept the board pretty open and kept the best leave possible for bingoing. One problem with this is all the As are still out, and HOYA is a good scoring spot. HUE may be the play instead.
>Rafi_Stern: AAGNOPV N2 PAVAN +34 196
#note Rafi first set down GANOV, but thought better of it.
>Noah: AEHILRU O5 HAULIER +87 148
>Rafi_Stern: GMNORRT H1 MOT.R +21 217
#note Actual rack.
>Noah: ?ADIOTW D2 OuTWAI..D +74 222
>Rafi_Stern: AEGNNRT 10N N. +4 221
#note Actual rack.
>Noah: EGLOTTW E5 OWT +29 251
#note At this point, I have a lot of knowledge of Rafi's rack. I know he has the G from the AAGNOPV turn. When he played MOTOR, he could have played GRO(O)M, so I deduced that he probably kept the T, with the N as his 7th tile, on that turn (as it turns out, he just missed GROOM). So With N(E), I think he has GT, and probably also another N, and some bingo prone stem. The one I thought of was AGILNT. So I was considering GLOWE(R), to block bingos. I didn't have time to consider many cases, but it looked like GLOWER wouldn't actually deal well with bingos in the case of AGILNT (in that case, it lowers Rafi's bingo chance, but only slightly), so I assumed it wouldn't be helpful enough in general to be worth playing. So I played OWT.
>Rafi_Stern: AEGJNRT M9 JAGER +45 266
>Noah: ?EEGLOT A7 E.LOGiTE +60 311
#note Now for an interesting turn! My best nonbingo option is probably LOGE F3. I didn't check exhaustively, but it seemed unlikely that N(E) kept anything but GARNET at this point, so I deduced Rafi now had NT. This gave him about a 40% chance of drawing an S. So I thought it was worth it to do ECLOGiTE. I ran a 4-ply, 5292 iteration sim on this move, inferring NT. ECLOGiTE wins by 4.4 valuation.
>Rafi_Stern: EGINRTX 14A .XERTING +86 352
>Noah: ACEKLMO F1 COMAKE +36 347
#note Wish I'd had more time to consider this fascinating turn, and even to just see all the options. I pretty much saw this and went with it after not too long, because my clock was running low and this came would probably contain more decisions. In the postmortem, we looked at MOCK L12, KAME L10, and CLOAK 2B. CLOAK looks nice: keeps the O for GO, can hit SIM or SUM 15A, and leaves open lanes on the bottom. I'd play CLOAK with a do-over.
>Rafi_Stern: DEIIVZ 15H IVIED +42 394
#note Rafi said he had the Z -- don't remember his last tile.
>Noah: AEILOSU 15A SI +48 395
#note Couldn't come up with a way to win here, and Rafi had the upper hand on time. Still, I can give myself a chance with some plays. One of them is (F)OU E10. If I get the right draw, Rafi needs to block bingos, after which I can outscore at 15A, though this doesn't happen often.
>Rafi_Stern: ASZ O1 ZAS +51 445
>Noah: AAEELOU D12 EU.O +10 405
#note Went over a minute here. Best is LAURAE 13J.
>Rafi_Stern: BDENS 12L B.DS +28 473
>Noah: AAEL M5 AAL +13 418
#note Went over another minute here.
>Rafi_Stern: EN E9 .EN +35 508
#note I gave Rafi 35 for this play in Quackle, due to my time penalty.
>Rafi_Stern: (E) +2 510
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