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#player1 Avery Avery
#player2 fizix fizix
>Avery: FILLOOS H4 FILLO +24 24
#note Game against Roy (fizix) on ISC, 7/8/16. There were a lot of interesting strategic positions this game - I think I thought them through well, but I'd like any comments and feedback I can get.
I still can't cope with the fact that LS > OS. Since I don't put a vowel at H7 here, I'm ok. Against a random rack, FOLIO sims better by about 1%.
>fizix: AABORSU 6H .ABOUR +14 14
#note G4 OBA looks nice to set up the S lane - not much I can do about it (unless I get YOOF obviously!) - this sims a bit higher than FUBAR.
>Avery: ?AAOSTY L2 tATO.AYS +78 102
#note I could also just get lucky. ATTABOYS is also available
>fizix: AEGNNST 9B GANNETS +69 83
>Avery: AEHINOO 10D OOH +31 133
#note Pretty easy play I think - I don't see much else worth considering (obviously better than OHO for killing row 11)
>fizix: AEEEIMS N2 AMIES +29 112
#note Plays at M2 like AMEER or EMEER seem to work well here. He's down almost a full bingo and I think the S, even without hooks, could be useful. Quackle picks AMEER at 34.97%, though I don't like focusing at those percents too early in the game. AMIES is the second-to-last pick by CP, with 27.57% win. I don't like how volatile this makes column O, but maybe the points overtook him here. With all the E's out, EMEER might not be bad, also saving the A and I for N3. Thoughts here?
>Avery: AEIMNNZ O1 ZEIN +51 184
>fizix: ADEEETU 8L .AUD +24 136
#note Scores the most by far, though EEET isn't really the most helpful leave with the deficit and the board. Before asking CP, I picked M5 DREE for a moderate fork on columns K and N. CP agrees by a bit - ETUDE at K9 is also close. Tough spot here - taking points seems costly with such a nasty leave, but CP doesn't hate it at all
>Avery: ?ADEKMN 5G M.KAD. +42 226
#note I hate these positions. I saw the 90 point options on column N (UNMARKED over UNMASKED), but 42 keeping EN? seems worth it for a higher average over this turn and the next one. K4 AMOK, which I did not consider, might also been interesting, though I don't like keeping the D on this board as much. A long sim keeps UNMARKED, UNMASKED and MIKADO all within .5% of each other! For the most part, UNMARKED wins by a bit, MIKADO is second and UNMASKED is third. I think I'd take MIKADO again if I had the option. As Brian Williams puts it, "fish the K off for MENHADEN".
>fizix: EEEETVY 7F EE.Y +26 162
>Avery: ?CEGHNU 6D UGH +28 254
#note I don't see a real reason to give B11 away for cheap points - but I did not think of two of the hooks to this! I thought of P and V, but did not think of S or the new A! I don't think this costs me much, since he's much more likely to score at 6F than 11E, but if he puts certain letters at E11, it may make it harder for me to block bingos. Not sure - thoughts here would also be nice, though I might be overcomplicating this.
>fizix: EEIRTVW C3 REIVE +29 191
#note His chances are already pretty grim here, but I like the idea behind E9 NOW, setting up the T hook. CP says it might even be desperate enough to try C4 WIVE and hope I don't have an S or blank. Everything is below 10% at this point. Taking points to hunt for better letters isn't a bad idea at this rate though - gotta hope for something
>Avery: ?CENOWX 11C COW +31 285
#note I think sacrificing 7 points to avoid giving him an easy spot to bingo is fine here - row 12 is now somewhat open, but there's not a big chance he'll score there, and if he does, it won't be much. EX seems to just give cheap points back, and it makes it much more likely I could be in trouble, especially with the clunky CNOW left. A sim puts EX and COW within .2 of each other, with EX winning. I still don't know if I agree - is it worth it here?
>fizix: ADGOPTW B2 PAW +23 214
#note I guess I can understand wanting to keep column A open, but GAWP for points seems like a definite improvement. CP agrees, but everything is less than 5% now.
>Avery: ?CENPTX D2 CENT. +31 316
#note I was all set to do NIX 5B when I realized it took an E. This has to be better - but a sim still puts NIX ahead by about .2%. I disagree - thoughts?
>fizix: BDDGIOT A1 BOD +27 241
#note It's looking pretty grim, although he can still reasonable try at the blank for somewhere in Quadrant IV of the board. Quackle suggests GOD in the same spot - only 2.11% chances here
>Avery: ?ILPQRX 10A QI +18 334
#note Should I just exchange here? Static puts this 6 points higher.
>fizix: DEGIJRT 2J JE. +25 266
#note May as well try to open more scoring spots with TRIJET I guess. TRIJET actually gets bumped up to 5%, with 4 different exchanges following it (keeping DEIRT, DERT, EIRT, DEIR, in that order). This just shuts off the top too much to have any chance I think.
>Avery: ?EILPRX O8 .IPLEXeR +104 438
#note Feels nice to be lucky
>fizix: DEGIRRT N12 RED +23 289
#note Everything at 0% to win - just score and cut spread, although it's ISC so who gives a damn
>Avery: IILNOSV M11 VIS +35 473
#note No cheap ILEX hooks compared to NOIL or VIOL
>fizix: FGINRTT K1 F.T +8 297
#note With all those vowels, why not?
>Avery: AEILNOU A10 .UINOA +48 521
#note I didn't even think of QUINOL, though this is 2 points better
>fizix: GINRRTT 12E TING +14 311
>Avery: EL 11K LE. +12 533
>Avery: (RRT) +6 539
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