| Player 1 |
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#player1 OSC OSC
#player2 Jeremy Jeremy
>OSC: DEGNPTW 8D PWNED +28 28
#note TWP was suggested by Ross. But I don't think club members could stand to pass up this word--for points, psychological, and trash-talk purposes!
>Jeremy: BCEGNTU 7G BEGUN +23 23
#note "I'll do BEGUN making BE and ED for 23. Pwned was 28. Tsk I'm down 5 pts."
>OSC: AAGRSTT 6H TAG +22 50
#note Jim suggests: "A reasonable play here is TAG at H6 leaving SART and scoring 22. It sets up another S hook and takes away a possible X play at J6"
>Jeremy: CFILRTY E8 .IFTY +28 51
#note I'll do E8 WIFTY. Was hoping to play CLIFTY#
>OSC: ARRSTVV 8J VAV +22 72
#note NAVV(Y) was considered, but members preferred VAV for defense.
>Jeremy: CEKLRST M3 CLERKS +44 95
#note I don't think TYCKLERS is good so how about CLERKS/VAVS for 42
>OSC: AMPRRST 12A MART.R +28 100
#note Chris suggests: "AMP is too risky to have another crappy rack. 7 out of 7 clunky letters are gone. So pulling 5 letters in a PS rack is not a terribly bad feeling. Leaving the M in Triple Lane isn't that bad since the DLS is taken. He might come back with a 40ptr there. There are enough lines open if he has a bingo to already play, so I am not fearing that too much. Therefore I am going with MARTYR as well."
Ross: "If leave were my priority, with all the unseen vowels, I'd suggest 12C TR(Y)MA, and see if Jeremy might try to put an -S on it.
I am really, really scared of what will come back along Column B if we play MART(Y)R, with JQXZ unseen and (as Wayne said) a six-tile draw that is about 1/4 likely to include one of those tiles. If you want to throw it open, D12 MAP or MART is far safer.
Still voting D11 AMP."
We went with MARTYR, obviously. :)
>Jeremy: EEQRSST B11 Q.TS +26 121
#note Q(A)TS through the A of MARTYR. 26 pts. Draw something that makes a bingo plz :) got that feeling both sides are going to let one loose this round.
>OSC: DOOPRSZ 4H PODZO. +42 142
#note Ross: Still very few vowels (and no sign that Jeremy is getting them, either). First thing I see is 4H PODZO(L) for 42.
Chris: POZ DZO don't really help. I don't see anything coming close to PODZOL. ORZO for 33 with a smackback of a lot. ZOPPO was close but doesn't hit the DWS.
Collins S-hooks revealed through discussion: S(WIFTY) and S(TED)
>Jeremy: EEHIRSU 11B .UI.E +20 141
#note Hmm. There's a few options this time. Given the tile bag is really high ( >50% ) vowels!! I'm going for a lower score and good leave. I'll do 11B (Q)UI(T)E for 20. I considered 3H UH (too vowel heavy leave, but a reasonable fish), and normally I'd do C10 HI(R)E for the 28 pts, but QUITE seems like the right play. Getting a bingo soon is probably important. QUITE 11B final answer. I hope I didn't miss something great.
>OSC: EEIIIRS H1 RES.I... +33 175
#note Lots of food for thought on this one--Here are a few of the highlights:
Joshua: SI(Z)E also gives Jeremy a lane, and 13F is another easy place to bingo. I don't think we can afford to just go with SI(Z)E. There isn't much we can draw into after SI(Z)E, or after anything really. We have to think more than one turn in advance, and not maximizing our chances to maintain control over this game is just asking for trouble. REI is a very hit/miss play, and definitely maximizes our chances of a bingo next turn, but if we don't draw into that maybe 15% shot, we are in trouble 90% of the time. I maintain my choice of RESPITED
Matthew: A bit late to the party, but I would be really uneasy making a play like RESPITED. Jeremy's spent 5 turns improving his rack, so I think he's going to bingo soon. (Though he blew most of it up with CLERKS). RESPITED puts us up 34 and gives us a crappy leave. That's not terrible, but it will be if Jeremy bingoes through the E or S we give him. Honestly, I'd like to try and salvage some sort of leave this turn. Josh's earlier suggestion of VISIER isnt that bad, but... someone correct me if I'm wrong ... VISIE is good, right? I know theres a phony variant of that word but I think its VIZIE. What about playing VISIE to keep a much better leave, and maybe even set up an R hook jeremy could miss? At this point, it's gonna be about who lucks into the blanks. Oh, and another option I just spotted: what about E(ER)IE setting up our R?
NOT SHOWN, but my favourite comment was from Josh: "Who are we trying to beat here? Jeremy Hildebrand or Quackle?" Haha.
>Jeremy: AEHNORS 3A SENHORA. +74 215
#note 3A SENHORAS. I feel like I might be missing something. Might get blank triple tripled on, but seems worth the extra pts.
>OSC: CEEIIOX A1 CO.IE +24 199
#note Matthew: Let's bank that X for a shot at a big 5K AXE play. Do COSIE
Deen: I agree with 1A COSIE for 24. Eliminates the duplicate I and E, keeps the X, scores a little bit - I don't see anything better that does these things.
Wayne on SENHORAS: Curious about Jeremy's play as well. I think HOARSENS in the same spot would have been more defensive for him.
>Jeremy: ADILNTT G7 ..TID +25 240
#note Okay, G7 (BE)TID# making QUITED# for 25. I'd really like to jam up that R so you don't get as many points for a bingo, or turn over more tiles but 6A DAINT# doesn't score enough. 5K ANE scores lots but leaves double T, and could turn over more tiles. BETID it is.
>OSC: AAEFIOX 5K AX. +51 250
#note Ross: I suppose 5K AX(E) for 51 is the big payoff, but I would also consider 4D AXE for 41 to set up our OF for 36. Still plenty of vowels, so burning one more may actually be a good thing. What do you all think?
Deen: An interesting point Ross, one where being a computer with actual odds calculated would probably be useful. How dangerous is leaving 5K open for Jeremy, he could land AWE or AYE there for 39, or even ANE or ARE for 30. Then we have our 36 for OF in hand...so we take 71 points for sure vs. his possible 30-40, but with him to play, vs. our 50ish to his ?? (something in the spot under SENHORA maybe), and then with us to play. I bet it's quite close - in some ways I'd like to burn that extra tile (vowel), but the ZA spot seems extremely hot to me. And if we luck out with our draw we might get 10D AFFINE or AFFIED# for nearly 40 next turn.by hanging onto that E. It's a close call, but I'm going to go for the more "obvious" 5K AXE for 51. Sim should be interesting.
Wayne's hilarious offering on how to psych out our opponent: If we want to screw with his head, at some point we should play a phony. He'll get suspicious, but then he'll think, "How can 10 people vote for a phony. Wouldn't someone know it was no good?" As for psychology, I think the "ominous music" reported a few turns ago affected my bad decision with RESPITED. If we want to psyche him, get rid of the ominous music and rig this discussion group to play Phil Collins songs whenever Jeremy signs on. That will bug him.
>Jeremy: AEILNTW D1 WA.INE +32 272
#note okay. D1 WAHINE for 32. I was going to fish there with AWE and take out the X threat, but too late. I think I have to blow up this rack and go for blanks. What's good is a consonant heavy leave. Lots of vowels to draw. And hopefully I get a blank or two out of this.
>OSC: AEFINOU 10D A.F.NE +37 287
#note Deen (who had actually brought up this possibility on the previous turn): OK, unless there's a Collins play that does something wonderful, I'm sticking with 10D AFFINE for 37. A shame to keep IOU and give up AE, but at least there are still a few A's and E's floating around. And it's bound to be a race to the blanks to some degree, so playing four tiles for decent points can't be terrible here, despite the somewhat dangerous leave.
Ross: The only thing I see that comes close to 10D A(F)F(I)NE is A12 (M)AUN for 22 (and keep the F for that hotspot). I vote AFFINE for the points
Matthew: It's a fine play.
>Jeremy: EEHILTU B1 HU. +23 295
#note (Jeremy on the tiles drawn) Boo. I really needed a blank after that. The other strategy was to fish off W, but the tiles in the bag didn't connect that well with AEINLT. I was jotting down possible bingos, and seeing if they'd go. ...it's not over yet, but i will have to pick a blank and bingo with it or I'm doomed. Unless OSC has dreck, but I doubt it. They haven't bingoed yet, so they must have a well groomed rack by now, lol
I'm thinking HU(E) at B1. Just waking up and I should have some coffee before submitting ...this is an important move.
Oh yeah. Let's do some trash talk. With a play like AFFINE, I just KNOW someone made a slap-worthy pun "that's AFFINE play lol". So write that Jeremy says "in response to your probable awful pun about AFFINE, Jeremy says, your mom's AFFINE play." Hahaha
>OSC: BIJLLOU 2G J.LLO +23 310
#note This made me laugh since the blanks were super elusive in this game:
Ross: I read one thing clearly: Jeremy has a blank (or two) and is clearing the decks for his bingo, which we will not be able to block. It's important to get ahead on score (else he'll just outwait us), but we also have to be ready to snap back on his bingo with our own bingo (or something huge).
Jim: I think Jud is going to lose. We need to turn over tiles and take a chance. Also there is another L in the bag so keeping two is not ideal. Maybe JELLO at 2I though BUI is not attractive it turns over 2 more tiles for 4 less points. At this point we should be thinking of maximizing winning chances rather than just high scoring plays.
Deen: 2G JELLO for 23 for me...assuming JA# is good. Better than I9 JELLO for 21 I am guessing tho I will point that out of interest as an option. I like turning tiles here especially if there is a blank about still. And I don't want to see 3 L's on my rack!
(Turns out Matthew wanted I9 JELLO). Tile turnover and not blocking bingo lines important at this stage.
>Jeremy: DEEILOT J10 DOE +26 321
#note This is breaking my head. I'll try DOE making AFFINED for 26. Hopefully I can counter-bingo after you guys bingo and empty the bag. I think just DO is pretty good, because it forces a bingo into a triple lane or off the S. OILED up top is probably okay, but I would expect to draw ?IIOY and then watch you guys bingo with no response of my own. DOE at least scores and provides a bit of defense without screwing up my rack. But it's starting to feel like I'm 25% to win. I need a blank or bingo draw. ...This is a tough position.
Looks like DEI was a better idea and risk getting doubled O. At this point I know there's a significant equity punt playing DOE, but I'm just going for win percentage. So I buy the data for DEI and that was probably the right move if you infer OSC hasn't bingoed in a long time. They're going to have a sweet leave.
(Jeremy finally draws a blank after this play) OSC could still win but this is a huge help.
I like DOE for the DOEN hook. I might play TRENAIL next. If I'm forced to bingo off the S it's a bit suicidal. I might fish again. But don't tell them that. Lol
>OSC: ?BEIMUY 1K IMBUE +38 348
#note We finally drew a blank!
Although I messed up and gave OSC a T instead of E initially, most of Matt's comment is still valid:
"I think this game is going to end in us trading bingos. If we can be the one to bingo out, we will probably win. We need to give ourselves the best chance to bingo next turn. Something like F3 RUBY to clear the clunkiest letters? I'm a little nervous about that, since Jeremy could bingo hooking DOE and make it very very hard for us to get a bingo down. So maybe we need to open up a line this turn? Another option is (O)UTBY which assures us a couple solid bingo lines, but gives Jeremy a prime chance at a bingo hooking OUTBYE. Can we outrun it though? It's between RUBY and OUTBY for me. This is tricky."
Though IMBUE had a lot of support, (V)IBEY was a good alternative to block DOE.
>Jeremy: ?AEILRT 13G TREnAIL +70 391
#note TRENAIL making DOEN# still looks good. Funny I called it yesterday. I can't see a single bingo that would play off the E, and it blocks (S)INOLOGY and (V)OYAGING if you have that. With blank as an S ISOGONY won't fit. Unless I missed one off the E I should be good. Okay. TRENAIL 13G. Final answer.
>OSC: ?AGINOY L8 .OYAg.NG +32 380
#note Deen's comment sums it up well:
Barring some weird bingo on column O, I don't see anything better than Brian's suggestion of L8 VOYAg(I)NG for 32, not a bingo any longer unfortunately. Good fight Jeremy, and great discussion by everyone!
>Jeremy: O L4 ..O +12 403
#note 6L O(R) making OXO. 12 and out. Thanks everyone! It was fun.
>Jeremy: (I) +2 405
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