| Player 1 |
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#player1 rp302 rp302
#player2 axcertypo axcertypo
>rp302: DOPQSTU 8D QUODS +50 50
#note This game acts as a simplified example of winnability. Its metric is unfortunately flawed: it uses Quackle's equity measurement.
>axcertypo: ADKPRRS F7 P.RK +20 20
#note However, Quackle's equity calculator is probably the only reliable metric for most Scrabble players today. The only metric that can compare to this metric is a top expert's analysis. I used a player who is very difficult to assess; who makes many decisions that do not align with any global strategical heuristic. This player is therefore quite difficult to exploit, which makes an equity-based strategy (points+leave+random opponent racks) the optimal strategy to undertake.
>rp302: AAMOPTY 11C PATY +32 82
#note -2
>axcertypo: ADEEIRS 12A IRADE +26 46
#note -5
>rp302: AAHMNOT A12 .NTO +12 94
#note -35
>axcertypo: CEEIOSZ 13C COSIE +37 83
#note -10
>rp302: AAAEHMM 12G HMM +18 112
#note -55
>axcertypo: EEGJLUZ H5 JUG. +12 95
>rp302: AAAERST 11H AA +10 122
#note -63
>axcertypo: AEEGLTZ 5H .EEZ +40 135
>rp302: AENNRST 14G TANNERS +65 187
#note -88
>axcertypo: AGLLTVY 6J TALLY +33 168
>rp302: ?EILRTV M3 VIL. +14 201
#note -105
>axcertypo: AGIOSVW 15H WO +32 200
>rp302: ?EEFORT 13K FOE +23 224
#note -123
>axcertypo: AGIIOSV L10 VIG.. +18 218
>rp302: ?EEENRT G7 E. +11 235
#note -135
>axcertypo: AEINORS 10E A.IN +17 235
>rp302: ?EEENRT 15M TEN +12 247
#note -140
>axcertypo: EIINORS 7M ION +18 253
>rp302: ?DEEIRR 3H REDRI.En +62 309
>axcertypo: CEIRSUX O1 XE.IC +42 295
>rp302: BEGILTW 8N WE +30 339
#note -150
>axcertypo: BDFORSU L2 F.B +24 319
>rp302: ?BGILTU H1 BU. +15 354
#note Blocking only possible bingo: SAHUARO? Check.
Allowing me to win if I have AADHORS (if I see the winning play in F2 AS(U)RA) or at a minimum allowing me to tie with OH(E)D N1?
Well, for that, there's Mastercard.
Can you find a play that wins with every single draw?
>axcertypo: AADORSU N1 OD. +23 342
#note -1, brining total equity loss to 11.
>rp302: ?GHILOT 9C HI +20 374
#note -26, bringing total equity loss to 176
>axcertypo: AARSU B6 AURAS +15 357
>axcertypo: (?GLOT) +10 367
#note This game is a demonstration of how 2 seemingly small mistakes can cascade into a loss, whereas 10 errors, some quite significant, can translate into a win.
You can come to two logical conclusions from this. Either:
a) You can blame this loss on bad luck, timing, drawing, or on your opponents fortune.
b) You can blame this loss on something you can control, in this case the moves you make.
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