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#player1 Ryan_Chepita Ryan Chepita
#player2 Josh Josh
>Ryan_Chepita: ANSTUUU -UUU +0 0
>Josh: ?DEEEMX H8 EX +18 18
#note In this position my first thought is that Ryan is likely to have a bingo or a close-to-bingo rack here. He often makes small exchanges like this one, and they are imminent bingo threats. I regretted not playing EXED here for 6 extra, and briefly considered putting the X on the star to not allow immediate triple word scores, but I also do not want to give Ryan more points for hooking EX or overlapping it. If I play EXED, I have to play it with the first E on the star, or else I am giving him far more points for a bingo or even for a non-bingo. Putting the D in the double-double lane is annoying, but probably isn't annoying enough not to do it. Small mistake to put me behind.
>Ryan_Chepita: ANNOSTW G5 WANTONS +74 74
#note G8 is the placement for Ryan. 3 more points and not a huge positional difference. This was actually scored as 72, not 74.
>Josh: ?DEEEIM 11E In.EEMED +90 108
>Josh: ?DEEEIM -- -90 18
#note I looked a long time for a bingo here, to no avail. The only available bingo is a word I had forgotten about, SEEDTIME. This is Collins, so I was quite confident in its validity. I very rarely have dictionary confusion. I remembered INSEAMS/INSEEMS# lucidly. Very frustrating and very large mistake!
>Ryan_Chepita: OOP F9 POO +25 99
>Josh: ?DEEEIM E10 EME +23 41
>Ryan_Chepita: APRY I6 PRAY +37 136
>Josh: ?DEEFIL F6 FE +28 69
#note Smartly blocking my best bingo lane, and scoring well too! I have always known Ryan to be underrated.
>Ryan_Chepita: AINRT H11 TRAIN +24 160
>Josh: ?DEHILM 13G H.LIDoME +86 155
>Ryan_Chepita: ADJW N10 JAW.D +64 224
>Josh: DEKLNOT O7 KETOL +38 193
#note Damn, missed KENDO here. Plays at H1, which is better positionally and scores better. I also should have considered KNOT in the same spot as KETOL. That may have been worth the points sacrifice for the sake of my leave.
>Ryan_Chepita: DOS O13 SOD +29 253
>Josh: AADINRY 12L YA. +30 223
>Ryan_Chepita: AOQTU J2 QUOTA +42 295
>Josh: ADEIINR K4 DENARII +78 301
#note I shouldn't be in this game.
>Ryan_Chepita: AORV H2 ARVO +16 311
#note I curiously wondered here if Ryan had kept the blank here. A word ending in a blank P or P_ isn't really a huge deal hooking p(ARVO), but it's definitely an interesting factor to consider if the game stays close.
>Josh: AEEIILV L1 VILE +30 331
#note As it stood Ryan blocked a very strong play in ALIVE/WE. I wasn't sure if I should go for the blank at this point with LEAVIE(R) or VEALIE(R), but I looked at the rest of the pool and it really didn't make sense. A bingo, if any, will most likely only be a threat many turns in the future. Our racks will build up strength the more clunky tiles we get rid of, and will grow stronger as we balance them next to a shrinking number of possible draws.
>Ryan_Chepita: LTU 2J .U.LT +28 339
>Josh: AEEFGIR D12 FRIG +30 361
#note The longer it was taking Ryan to decide on a move, the longer I worried if he had the blank. So I decided to sacrifice a great leave to start trying to control the board. 14J FE is almost always the right play if I am trailing, but I was confident that, barring a bingo, I was in good shape to win this game. But I needn't underestimate Ryan!
>Ryan_Chepita: BINO 15A BIN.O +24 363
>Josh: ABEEGGI 14B BE.GE +33 394
#note Now, with 8 tiles in the bag, 3B BAGGIER jumps out almost as a "too good to be true" option. I definitely want very much to leave two tiles in the bag here and block 2-3 bingo lanes that Ryan is probably saving for. Especially in the very unlikely scenario he has ZECCHIN on his rack, which plays for 108 at D4 as a natural!
But BAGGIER is not the right play. The A allows him to bingo far more than the R in ARVO and the lane at D4. And the Z is a factor too. I don't really want to draw the Z since the pool is very clunky, so it might be a nuisance in the endgame, but Ryan, who likely has the blank and at least one S, can use the Z very well. So it's best to be conservative here and play BEIGE, and score.
>Ryan_Chepita: IS O1 IS +21 384
>Josh: ACGIRUZ G2 ZA +26 420
#note Two in the bag. Relatively threatening stuff in there. But just how threatening?
Upon postgame analysis, it looks like Ryan has 10 unique racks with bingos on them that he will most likely find. That's 10 out of 36 possible racks, I believe. So 10/36 times I lose instantly after Z(I)G, the only other candidate play that I can think of. But I might be more likely to lose in the endgame without a bingo than I am with one. The biggest problem with Z(I)G is perhaps not that it allows more bingos in the endgame, but rather than it allows easy plays like CHEEp/p(ARVO) for 57 that win Ryan the game. So I think this is the right play to complicate things the most, but all is not won.
>Ryan_Chepita: ?CEHNSU J10 HE +26 410
#note Ryan has three wins here. Can you find them? Answer in the next blurb.
>Josh: CEGIRTU M11 G..UT +16 436
#note J10 HuM(I)C and HeM(I)C win the game for Ryan. This was actually very complicated for me, but I calculated that this won by two points if Ryan went out next turn, and allowed me to go out/score enough if he did not. This does not win the game! This would have tied if Ryan had gone out next turn! I had many other wins, the first being (T)RICE at N2, blocking his out and setting up G(AM)UT next turn. I just didn't know if he had other outs, so I couldn't allow myself to score so few! I didn't have enough time to figure things out, after thinking Ryan would have had the most trouble... L7 GET, as well, which I saw, is what I should have played.
>Ryan_Chepita: ?CNSU H1 p.... +21 431
#note He should have taken the loss by two! Would have become a tie in the recount... This game reminds me of our game last year in Cornwall! That time, I was the one that snatched Defeat out of the jaws of Victory.
>Josh: CEIR N2 .RICE +9 445
>Josh: (CNSU) +12 457
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