| Player 1 |
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#player1 Emanuel Emanuel
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Emanuel: AELQRRU 8D QUARREL +102 102
#note The correct placement is 4 spots to the right.
>Joshua_Sokol: DDEIOUV I3 VIDEO.D +19 19
#note I'm looking over this game to see how I should have attempted a comeback. It starts on this turn. I knew DEVOID was more points, but I was hoping that with Emanuel's juvenile confidence, he would challenge this play. I was already feeling desperate, as my position is only winnable in around one game out of 9. I should hae just played B9 DUI. I didn't consider it. This is a mistake. I should already give up!
>Emanuel: ?EFI J6 FI.E +33 135
#note Apparently he immediately drew a blank.
>Joshua_Sokol: ABENOUW 5C UNBOWE. +26 45
#note Also hoping for a challenge here. I liked that my remaining U would be useful for the Q on the board, but it didn't work out like that this time.
>Emanuel: AH 6E AH +30 165
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEGJOO C3 AJ.GA +28 73
#note With a rough pickup I am only winning one in around 20 games here.
>Emanuel: ?CEEHNV 4H H.VE +23 188
#note I'd have to confirm that this was his leave, but if it was he can just put an end to the game right here with (R)EVaNCHE at G8. But I knew he had the blank here just by his play, and he confirmed my suspicion later.
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEINOO 4C .IAO +37 110
#note I was glad that he couldn't block my spot here, and very happy that I could get a lot of information about his rack leave from his play, but unhappy that he was basically telegraphing a blank. I thought it was too early to go hail mary here with D1 ONIO(N), and that if he hits clunkers for a few more turns, I can make this a game.
>Emanuel: ?CEGLN K2 CL.G +14 202
>Joshua_Sokol: DEELNOS L4 DOL +35 145
#note I am not happy with the play I made here. I thought I was making DOLE up. DONE is also clearly better than this. DONEE would be the play if the game was closer or further out of reach, but I need to hang on to my E here. I also considered DOE, but I thought that on the board we had, it was better to keep VVCC (EENS) over VCCC (ELNS), logic which a simulation demolishes. LENS has an extra 8% chance of a bingo next turn. I regretted not thinking about this further after I made my play. Another area of this particular game wherein I could have improved. Keeping the L, too, has better synergy with the board at hand and with ES. DONE is the play.
>Emanuel: AEY K9 YEA +19 221
#note Still quite fortunate that he hasn't stung yet.
>Joshua_Sokol: DEEIINS D8 .I +11 156
#note "I have to hit a bingo next turn" was the resounding thought in my head in this position. I am back in the game, but only if I can keep up. Emanuel can't miss a bingo forever. My three candidate plays here were 9C DINE, the non-fish play, L10 DIE, the scoring defense+rack balancing play, and (Q)I, the pure fish. The chances of me getting a bingo next turn are highest with the fish, obviously, but there is another play that rivals mine in that regard, and that is 3K (L)IE, which I missed. It scores the same, but bingos a bit less, which should immediately erase it from candidate status, but there is one thing it does better than QI, and that is leaving the board more open for a comeback. With Emanuel's impending bingo, either this turn (very likely) or next turn, given my previous intuition about him holding the blank since H(I)VE, I have to keep the board both bereft of scoring opportunities and open for bingos. QI doesn't accomplish that, as it opens up a scoring lane that will in turn open up another scoring lane. Column C and B (and then A) are not very bingo-friendly here. Yes, the Q lane is mostly a scoring spot, but not a good one at all.
So I believe (L)IE might edge out QI here, based on simulations of all plays. DINE though, would be a perfectly reasonable play (it even wins the sim) if I weren't so sure that Emanuel was about to lay down a bingo. He was even doing that talkative tell of his, where he gets chatty and lightens up when he should really be tense. So I think I should have played (L)IE, cause although it is extremely unlikely for a bingo I draw into to be blocked here (perhaps 5% of the time), in the future I am going to need as many lanes as possible.
>Emanuel: ?AEILRS 12F EcLAIRS +71 292
#note Enlightening play by Emanuel, as in response to a fish, he makes sure he is giving nothing back in terms of bingo lanes and blocks off as much of the board as possible. 10B RESAILs may win the sim here, as long-term it accomplishes more perhaps, but this is definitely the correct play. Not easy to spot with dozens upon dozens of playable bingos.
>Joshua_Sokol: DEEIKNS C9 SKEINED +79 235
#note I am lucky I still had a bingo to play, but unfortunately I am giving Emanuel a pot of gold in the form of that D on the triple lane. This is the perfect example of why QI was wrong.
>Emanuel: ?CNRTTU 15C .UCT +8 300
#note In this position, Emanuel can definitely afford to be aggressive with a play such as 14B C(E)NTU. If he prefers to protect his lead via defense, he should play 15A CU(D). What is instructive about his play is that with a draw of either an O or an I, he is threatening a sandwich 3x3 of IN(DUCT)OR for 90 points. On the unbright side he is also opening himself up for disaster with one of many possible triple-triples I can hit, the likeliest of which is the one he is going for. This is why this play wasn't exactly defensive, and is also wrong. It scores only 8 points as well, when CU(D) scores 18. Anyways, pick your comfort zone, either C(E)NTU or CU(D) are the correct plays here.
>Joshua_Sokol: ABEMMOX B12 MOB +28 263
#note Under more normal circumstances, B12 MOME or MABE would be correct here. But once again, with Emanuel's turn, I can be very suspicious that he is holding the other blank, and should definitely make my plays following that assumption. But I can also see that he shouldn't have the other A, which is why I should make my own setup here with this play. Otherwise OX 13H may make sense, but I definitely cannot hope to be the first to hit the 3x3 here. I must be careful and force my opponent to remain focused on me rather than himself. I must exploit him to have a chance at winning this game.
>Emanuel: ?NRTW F10 WR.N +15 315
>Joshua_Sokol: AEIMPTX 13H AX +36 299
#note This position here is even more pivotal than the last. He is still sitting on consonants + blank as I expected, but perhaps he has one vowel here. In any case I don't really want to open anything up for him, unless I have no reasonable alternative. Which is why 13H AX came to mind but didn't come down on the board quite as fast. I longly considered A8 PIETA. I am in no rush to get rid of the setup that I made, but it is really not great to open a lane up. I would be bailing Emanuel out of far too many racks.
However, the more I thought about it, the more likely it was that I had to gamble here. Firstly, most of his leaves are of 3 consonants and a blank, especially based on the confidence and swiftness WR(E)N came down. He is just asking me to reopen the board on one hand, but on another he is really just inflexible with what he can do. So do I risk it? Secondly, I have to look at what the possibilities are after PIETA. The game will likely end up being me playing catchup but also being defensive, as my rack cannot improve much based on the pool, whereas his rack can most definitely turn into a killer one. Yes, I can draw an S or two, but where does that really get me? There are only 9 vowels left, and I don't have much firepower left after PIETA. Leaving MX and being down 22 on a dead board is a gamble I will very likely lose. Unless Emanuel makes a misstep and gives me a huge x-bomb, but how would that feasibly occur?
So it seems that between two gambles I do not want to make, I must choose the better of the lot. I would definitely appreciate further insight on this position if you have any...
>Emanuel: ?OPTZ H11 P..Za +45 360
#note He said I blocked P(L)OTZ, so he could just play ZO(A) here and keep his blank. I'm not quite sure what I could be missing. I don't think this play is correct no matter what he has! Yes, vowels are getting scarce, but then don't hang one out in the open instead of close the board and retain a commanding lead!
>Joshua_Sokol: EIMOPTY A13 YOM +35 334
#note This draw was appreciated amidst all of this mind-draining strategizing. It was much like a slowly eroding island in the middle of a raging ocean.
>Emanuel: GOT M5 TOG +12 372
#note It may not look it, but this play was Emanuel's downfall. Everything came down to whether or not he would allow me to bingo.
All things aside, this play increases my average bingo chances by around 5% compared to doing nothing. This is because it allows me to being my bingo in an I or an O, whereas I have to begin my bingo with a specific letter and then with an A, I or O if he leaves column M alone. The L can be overlapped with 5 vowels, but the G only 4, so this is slightly counterintuitive. I don't know what his rack was, but J10 T(E)G does a great job at interfering with the M column. Anyways, I was shocked when he hit the clock, not by the play he made, but at the prospect of winning this game.
>Joshua_Sokol: EIIPSTT N6 PIETIST +81 415
#note I was just holding my breath until he made his next play. I even closed my eyes as I drew my tiles. He may still have somewhere to fish off a tile, or even have a snapback bingo with this scary pool.
>Emanuel: EFNOSTU O8 FEN +37 409
#note Given his play, I assume this was his rack, otherwise FET would come down. Playing six tiles here with O3 FUNEST or O10 FOETUS provides a win if Emanuel draws the E out of the bag. A missed opportunity, sure, but it would not have mattered.
>Joshua_Sokol: AEINNRR O1 NARINE +27 442
#note I was hoping to draw a challenge here. Jason, who was watching, might not have known this word and so him and Emanuel might have thought that I had just blown the game in the most spectacular fashion, as I have done in the past by phonying in sure win situations. But no, both of them seemed to know this adjectival 6, pertaining to a nostril. NARINE is actually the word for nostril in French.
>Emanuel: OSTTU 13L OUST +20 429
>Joshua_Sokol: R J6 ....R +14 456
#note FILER may have been invalid here, but I was not careful. He can win if he spots FILET in the spot I played FILER if FILER is invalid. But how could it be?
>Joshua_Sokol: (T) +2 458
#note There you have it folks, an insanely orchestrated comeback, just as much my doing as my opponent's. I could have done more earlier to improve my chances, and I would have had to have done so if Emanuel didn't kindly allow me to get inside his head during all stages of this game and prevent him from making more of the winningest plays.
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