| Player 1 |
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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Cecilia_Le Cecilia Le
>Joshua_Sokol: DIORWXY H4 WORDY +32 32
>Cecilia_Le: CEIKR 4H .ICKER +30 30
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEIJTX 5K AXE +43 75
#note This turn, AX for 39 was also a consideration, given that AEIJT seemed a tad more flexible, and that AXE created a hook (L,D,S) that would not be likely to get blocked anytime soon. Those two factors are very small though, compared to the 4 points.
>Cecilia_Le: DEEFIRS N5 DEFIERS +77 107
#note M3 F(RE)ERIDES for 82 is available!
>Joshua_Sokol: AAIJNST 6F JA. +26 101
#note Tough to leave that 8L spot alone but this was definitely correct. Sets up my A and my bingo leave.
>Cecilia_Le: GOV 3L VOG +33 140
>Joshua_Sokol: AEINSTU E6 AUNTIES +75 176
#note Normally I wouldn't consider SINUATE in the same spot, as that gives Cecilia first dibs on the huge 8A hotspot, but since 8L is still there already, it's worth considering opening another spot. But in the end it looks to volatile.
>Cecilia_Le: ORSY O1 ROSY +41 181
>Joshua_Sokol: ACEGIMS 8A MACI.G +36 212
#note There were quite a few plays to consider here. 8K MAG(I)C, 8K GAM(I)C, D11 MAGIC and O11 IMAGE were also up there as candidates. I chose MACI(N)G because the leave and the score seemed to suit me the best, but not without reflecting upon other factors.
Cecilia does not have a random rack, in fact she probably has a less than average rack, perhaps containing a U or duplicate consonants. I presume this because she took a while to play ROSY and was contemplating options that scored far fewer. This means that she probably cannot hit the 8L spot that hard next turn, unless she draws the Q, which is quite unlikely. Therefore, blocking the I was not worth sacrificing points and leave value. Otherwise, D11 MAGIC would be good if I thought she had one-point tiles, which she probably does, but MACI(N)G is better since it scores 2 more points and also does well against one-point tiles. So that one doesn't really make sense either. O11 IMAGE, though was what I considered most as an alternative. it doesn't block anything, but it opens an IN(G) lane and an __(E) lane. Both of those probably benefit me, but the IN(G) lane looks to benefit Cecilia more, given her range from last turn. IMAGE would be a better play if I were in an unfavorable position, as in creates lanes that are tough to block while retaining a dynamic leave. But MACI(N)G does that too. IMAGE is just a bit better for the board, as it keeps it more open, longer.
>Cecilia_Le: LPTU 8K UPL.T +30 211
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEORST L8 .ROTEASE +72 284
#note My biggest blunder of the game, completely whiffing on O(P)ERATES for 2 less. That's better because I'm not giving Cecilia a free triple lane and buffing up her average score next turn. Unbelievable miss.
>Cecilia_Le: AHIRZ 15H HAZI.R +54 265
#note Yes, I know, I deserved this.
>Joshua_Sokol: BDFLLNW 13J FL.W +20 304
#note Forget what I said last turn, this was an even bigger blunder. I was not 100% on BLAWN, so I chose to play it safe. Silly decision, as BLAWN will not often get challenged in this position even if it is phony. I should also play 4 tiles here. Keeping FLW is better than keeping BDLN, so BL(A)ND should have been my play. And defense, so I shouldn't play at 13J. Overall bad decision here.
>Cecilia_Le: DIQU 12A QUID. +50 315
>Joshua_Sokol: BDLMNOO B10 MO.LD +28 332
#note I don't know what this was, either! BOUND and MOUND are definitely better, just by the fact that they shed an N with 4 left to draw! These minor mistakes are adding up to being a major problem.
>Cecilia_Le: ?BEEINT C2 BENEdI.T +76 391
#note Who would have spotted 14E BEToNIE(S)? That's an amazing fit. To think I thought this find was not too shabby...
>Joshua_Sokol: ?BENOOU 14H OBE +33 365
#note Suddenly things were looking quite grim
>Cecilia_Le: AEO M7 O.EA +19 410
#note In a moment of tension, we had a bit of comedic relief as this was scored as 20, and I stopped the clock because I counted it as 19. Ensuing around 10 recounts of this one play, because it's so hard to count properly!
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AHLNOU D4 UH +19 384
#note Things were definitely looking sour. OLEA indicated at least two more vowels, which is going to make it quite difficult for me to draw another vowel. Especially the E. I wholly did not expect to draw the E here. So what do I do? I don't think Quackle would be very helpful here, as Cecilia's rack is far from random, and her best plays next turn, far from static. To make a long story short, my play of UH was both keeping the threat of a bingo alive as well as the threat of outscoring, should Cecilia attempt to block bingos. But outscoring seemed very unlikely unless I played HALO D1. Except then she would just play to the H and win immediately, it seemed. So I just wanted to make it very tough for her to make the correct play, in the face of bad prospect after bad prospect. Here is the problem, the very very large problem with my play. In this position, playing D4 OH, instead, keeping ALNU?, allows me to draw into 22% more bingos! That's crazy and counterintuitive, isn't it! The B, the M and the R being the bingo lanes I'm shooting for, nothing would indicate that except if there are way more UM bingos than I thought, and/or if I attempted to iterate through all of the possible bingos!
With my leave of ALON?, 18 words play through or from the B. 8 play to the R. 4 play to the M.
With ALNU?, 17 play to the R. Mostly because of ULA(R) words. 15 play through the B. 3 play to the M.
That's 30 vs 35. Doesn't seem like a large difference until you account for what I'm likely to draw. However, after having debunked what Cecilia's range likely is after OLEA (one-pointers and at least two vowels), ALNU? and ALNO? become competitive bingo leaves. Especially given that if Cecilia blocks, she will probably block the R, which from her perspective is the likeliest lane for me to hit, and ALNO? is better to play to the B than ALNU? is.
So in the end, I am lucky this wasn't actually a blunder, seemingly. But perhaps if I keep the U Cecilia will worry about the M and block that. Perhaps this was a mistake and I am misjudging her range and her decision-making.
>Cecilia_Le: EIINNTT 1I TINNIE. +8 418
#note This was her rack. Quackle wants her to either fish leaving one in the bag or play 13F TIN. I could have PAGANDO(M), NANOGRA(M), COPLANA(R), ANOVULA(R) and NONPOLA(R). Quackle says not to worry about those and just go for equity. Cecilia thought blocking the R was the best route to take, but she had no idea what the tile bag had in store for her.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?AALNOP O11 OPALs +29 413
#note Turns out I had cOPLANA(R). I don't know if I would have seen it if it hadn't been blocked. I definitely would have needed to! I had to make sure it was POBLANO and not PABLANO* too. I couldn't believe I was going to outscore after she had emptied the bag. But this won, so I played it. I didn't have enough time to find a better play, although I quickly noticed LAP/NAP at B1. Those outdo my play by 6 points. I had a couple more wins.
>Cecilia_Le: GNTV K7 V.G +12 430
>Joshua_Sokol: AN B2 AN +14 427
#note The worst part about this endgame is that I missed K7 V(U)G after looking for Cecilia's best play for around 2 minutes. Good thing it was only one more point than 10D V(I)G
>Joshua_Sokol: (NT) +4 431
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